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Instead of focusing on the never ending Soap Opera that the Jeremy Mayfield situation has become, instead of focusing on the tries, or who will be where let’s take some time today to talk about the racing. In all honesty it seems the NASCAR media as a whole has been hijacked this year, and instead of focusing on the great racing, we have become tabloid journalist.
For today let us focus on the racing, the one thing all NASCAR fans love.
With six races left till the start of the chase, no one is locked in mathematically yet, but we can take a few good guesses at who will make it and who will not.
Tony Stewart currently leads the points and is 625 points ahead of 12th place. That means Tony is a virtual lock for the chase and with his two wins so far will be among the top five seeds.
Jimmie Johnson is 433 points ahead of 12th place and now has three wins. While Jimmie doesn’t have the best record at the six remaining tracks before the chase starts, he does drive Atlanta well and a strong run there will lock him in.
Jeff Gordon will probably make the chase, but Gordon has not done so well in past chases and it seems that is age is starting to show, on top of his continued bad back problems. In all reality the era of Gordon has come to an end, and it seems likely his driving career will end within the next three seasons.
We could go ahead and call these three drivers locks for the chase. However 4th place Kurt Busch to 12th place Matt Kenseth are only separated by 179 points. While that is more that any one driver can gain on an opponent in one single race, there is the chance that a few of these drivers may fall out.
A quick look at the points positions here:
• Kurt Busch 4th place, 446 points behind first and 179 points ahead of 12th
• Carl Edwards 5th place, 498 points behind first, and 127 points ahead of 12th
• Denny Hamlin 6th place, 536 point behind the leader, and 89 points ahead of 12th
• Ryan Newman 7th place, 548 points behind the leader, and 77 points ahead of 12th
• Kasey Kahne 8th place, 572 points behind the leader, and 53 points ahead of 12th
• Mark Martin 9th place, 583 points behind the leader, and 42 points ahead of 12th
• Juan Montoya 10th place, 593 points behind the leader, and 32 points ahead of 12th
• Greg Biffle 11th place, 609 points behind the leader, and 16 points ahead of 12th
• Matt Kenseth 12th place, 625 points behind the leader, and 68 points ahead of 13th
• David Reutiman 13th place, 68 points from 12th, and 14 points ahead of 14th
• Kyle Busch, 14th place, 82 points behind 12th, and 42 points ahead of 15th
• Brain Vickers 15th place, 122 points behind 12th, and 27 points ahead of 16th
Over the next six races these 12 drivers will determine the final nine spots of the 2009 chase field. That means that 3 of them will not make it. Based on how they are running, past performance at the nest 6 tracks, and overall performance of this season it seems likely that Vickers, Reutiman will be 2 of the 3 that do not make it.
The lat is a virtual toss up; it is probably between Montoya, Kenseth and Kyle Busch. Busch’s season has come unraveled, Kenseth has underachieved but has made the chase each year and knows how to points race. If Montoya can run well he may make it, but be even contending for a chase spot he is helping to turn around Earnhardt-Ganassi racing.
For the next 6 weeks this should be the story, the battle of these 12 drivers for 9 chase spots.
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