Biffle, Gordon, Martin, and Hamlin attempt to dethrone Johnson (AP Photo/Ranier Ehrhardt)
Here is the conclusion of the NASCAR top 40 countdown.
10. 17-Matt Kenseth, Crown Royal Ford- Roush Fenway Racing
2009 projection- 7th
2009 results- 14th
After winning the first two races of the 2009 season, Kenseth quickly emerged as a favorite to dethrone Jimmie Johnson. Unfortunately, the Roush Fenway contingent lost some of the edge they attained in previous seasons. Kenseth missed the Chase for the Championship for the first time in his career after he stumbled into mediocrity throughout the summer months. He enjoyed some solid performances once the Chase began, which could be an indication that this team will return to the front of the pack in 2010. Expect a substantial upgrade in performance from the entire Roush group.
9. 2-Kurt Busch, Miller Lite Dodge- Penske Racing
2009 projection- 12th
2009 results- 4th
In 2008, Kurt Busch spent the majority of the season mired in mid-pack while his kid brother dominated the headlines. In 2009, Kurt skyrocketed back into the limelight as he won two races and finished fourth in the standings. He emphatically dominated the spring race in Atlanta, putting an exclamation point on his comeback effort. Busch should enjoy another solid season, but I question if this is a championship caliber team. Busch has yet to put together back-to-back Chase for the Championship appearances since joining Penske Racing in 2006. Busch will have a new crew chief in 2010, as Steve Addington, his brother’s former crew chief, will call the shots atop the pit box.
8. 16-Greg Biffle, 3M Ford- Roush Fenway Racing
2009 projection- 4th
2009 results- 7th
Biffle failed to win a race for the first time since his Cup career began in 2003. He had his chances, however. He had the dominant car on several occasions, such as Darlington and Kansas. For various reasons, he saw the victories slip away. In a season in which the Roush organization was off their game, Biffle did not suffer as much as his teammates. He seemed to run near the front more often than his teammates, as he led the most laps among the Roush drivers. If the Roush Fenway Racing operation detect the missing link from 2009, Biffle could be dangerous. Expect another Chase for the Championship appearance from Biffle, as well as a return trip to victory lane.
7. 18-Kyle Busch, M&M’s Toyota- Joe Gibbs Racing
2009 projection- 2nd
2009 results 13th
Kyle Busch won four races in 2009; however, a mid-summer swoon dropped the young driver out of the top twelve. Joe Gibbs Racing shook things up a bit when they replaced Addington with Dave Rogers as the crew chief with three races remaining. Busch recently signed a contract extension, so he obviously believes that he can win championships under the Joe Gibbs Racing banner. It is highly unlikely that Busch and the No. 18 team will miss the Chase for the Championship for a second consecutive season. You can fully expect Busch to win multiple races. Nevertheless, I am not convinced that they have the consistency to dethrone Jimmie Johnson.
6. 99-Carl Edwards, Aflac Ford- Roush Fenway Racing
2009 projection- 1st
2009 results- 11th
He went from nine wins in 2008 to zilch in 2009. Edwards’ winless season was one of the surprises of the season. There was a dramatic diminution in performance for Edwards and the No. 99 team. As previously mentioned, the Roush camp struggled as a whole in 2009, so Edwards was not alone. It is just a matter of time before Roush Fenway Racing levitates back to the top. When that resurgence takes place, Edwards will pick up where he left off in 2008.
5. 24-Jeff Gordon, DuPont Chevrolet- Hendrick Motorsports
2009 projection- 5th
2009 results- 3rd
Gordon returned to the winner’s circle in 2009 following a winless season in 2008. He consistently ran among the top five. However, he just cannot seem to keep up with his teammate Jimmie Johnson. They always seem a step or so behind the No. 48. Gordon is by no means the dominant force he was in the 1990’s, but he is still one of the elite drivers. Once again, he will emerge as one of the favorites to capture the 2010 title. Johnson joins Gordon in a ‘drive for five’.
4. 14-Tony Stewart- Office Depot/Old Spice Chevrolet- Stewart Haas Racing
2009 projection- 15th
2009 results- 6th
The instantaneous success of Stewart-Haas Racing was one of the pleasant surprises of 2009. Despite Stewart’s achievements behind the wheel, many skeptics wondered if he could transform a 30th place team into a championship contending team. Well, he answered the critics with four wins, and a sixth place showing in the final championship standings. This company is only going to grow stronger. I do not anticipate the proverbial sophomore slump. Stewart will win races and challenge for his third title. Johnson, Mark Martin, and his former teammate Denny Hamlin appear to be his main hurdles in his championship quest.
3. 11-Denny Hamlin- Federal Express Toyota- Joe Gibbs Racing
2009 projection- 10th
2009 results- 5th
Hamlin won a career high four races in 2009. A year ago, I stated that it was time for him to step up and contend for championships. I believe that he has finally reached that level. He will be one to watch as we approach the autumn months. Hamlin must avoid the self-inflicted mistakes that proved costly in 2009, however. I believe that he has learned from previous mistakes, therefore, he could emerge as a formidable championship contender.
2. 48-Jimmie Johnson- Lowe’s Chevrolet- Hendrick Motorsports
2009 projection- 3rd
2009 results- 1st
Johnson accomplished what I thought was impossible, an unprecedented four consecutive championships. He joins his teammate and former mentor Gordon in a ‘drive for five’. Johnson is the odds-on favorite, and the logical pick to win the 2010 championship. Every preview guide in the United States has Johnson picked to win another title. Against my better judgment, I am placing Johnson in the runner-up position. While five successive championships appeared impossible five years ago, Johnson seemed to cruise through four, so now it almost seems inevitable. This team rarely falters, and when they do, they resiliently make the best of the circumstances. The Chad Knaus-led team will easily qualify for the Chase, and will be a player in the title hunt. Duh!
1. 5-Mark Martin- GoDaddy.com Chevrolet- Hendrick Motorsports
2009 projection- 11th
2009 results- 2nd
A fifty-one year old winning the Sprint Cup championship? Martin fervently believes in physical fitness, and there are few drivers in as good as shape as the wily veteran. That in itself allows Martin to physically compete with the younger drivers. Furthermore, he is arguably the most regimented driver in the garage with years of wisdom that gives him an edge over the less experienced drivers. He drives for the most powerful organization in the garage. Martin enters his second season with Hendrick Motorsports, so justifiably, I believe that he will be even more competitive in 2010 than he was in 2009. The sentimental favorite must perform impeccably in the Chase if he expects to dethrone Johnson. If anyone besides Johnson can freewheel through the Chase with minimal setbacks, it is Martin.
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