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(UPDATED) NHTSA statistics show California motorcycle fatalities on the decline. Or are they?

A lot of hay is being made over a National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) report released just today over the dramatic reduction in California motorcycle fatalities. Even a Sacramento Bee story jumped all over the news which states that for the first 6 months of 2009, motorcycle traffic fatalities are down 25% (from 264 to 198) compared to the same period last year.

UPDATE: See the 2009 report here (Thanks to Mia for the suggested direct link)

My reaction is hoorah! Maybe….. You see, with government agencies, you have to know how to read their stuff. I am not saying the report is false. I contend that, given all presentable data, drawing such a conclusion as they have is premature. Here’s why:
 

The report says fatalities are down for the first time since 1998. But is that number: 

  • the gross number of fatalities?
  • the number of fatalities per Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)?
  • the number of fatalities per number of registered motorcycles?

Today's report lists the overall (cars, trucks, buses, etc) numbers as VMT, but fails to break those numbers out for motorcycles specifically. The reason I raise the issue is because of the following table I lifted from another NHTSA report. As you can see, California motorcycle fatalities actually showed a decline in 2007, when compared to number of bikes registered.

 
Motorcyclist Fatalities Per 100,000 Registered Motorcycles
Year
Motorcyclist Fatalities
Total Motorcycle
Registrations*
Motorcyclist
Fatalities
Per 100,000
Motorcycle
Registrations
2004
432
626,529
68.95
2005
469
675,336
69.45
2006
506
726,096
69.69
2007
518
767,319
67.51
2008
560
 
 
 
*Data Source: FHWA
*2008 Motorcycle Registrations are Not Yet Available
 
The NHTSA did disclose the basis of today’s report data as VMT for automobiles, trucks, etc., but failed to do so with respect to motorcycles. (Yes, I read it) While I am happy for the decreased number of fatalities amid my two-wheeled brothers and sisters, the lack of a data basis makes me suspicious. Makes me wonder if some state agency doesn’t stand to gain a grant or what-not based on these stellar numbers.
 
The big point that should be considered in California motorcycle fatalities, especially in this economy, is the VMT number. Let’s be honest, a large portion of us treat our bikes as toys or pastimes. So when the economy tanks, many of us stop riding. The bike needs tires or brakes or the 5,000 mile service, all of which costs money for a “non-essential” vehicle. So we put it off and stop riding until we can afford it, and our actual VMT goes down.
 
Back to the point. Is the number of fatalities based on gross tally, per number of registrations, or VMT?
Let’s answer the question honestly before we go patting ourselves on the backs and awarding multi-million dollar research grants.
 
Until next time, stay "tuned" (inquisitive) and upright,
Jack
 
 
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By

Sacramento Motorcycles Examiner

Jack Martin has spent his life riding, breaking, modifying, repairing and loving motorcycles. Since age 9, he's been a trail rider, off-road racer,...

Comments

  • Patty Davis 2 years ago
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    It is all in the spin.

  • mia g 2 years ago
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    Can you please post a link to the NHTSA report?

  • Jack 2 years ago
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    Mia, though I did include a link to the NHTSA home page, I agree that it is cumbersome to navigate and find the 2009 report. I will indeed update the article with a direct link to the report.

  • Warren 2 years ago
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    Everyone should be aware that NHTSA's so-called Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) is fraud.

    In NHTSA's National Agenda for Motorcycle Safety they actually admit: "Unfortunately, vehicle miles of travel (VMT) data for motorcycles are not reported directly and must be estimated." Fabricated would be a more accurate word than "estimated". By definition, statistics cannot be "estimated".

    For a more in depth explanation of NTHSA's fraud, see page 9 of Helmet Law Facts at sbumaui.org .

  • Jack 2 years ago
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    Warren, I appreciate your comments. Seems the more I read of this whole thing, the deeper the story really goes. I will research the link you provided. Thank you.

  • mia g 2 years ago
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    "(NHTSA) report released just today over the dramatic reduction in California motorcycle fatalities" -the link you provided was a report that NHTSA put out Oct. 9. I would like to read the report that shows CA [and other states?] motorcycle fatalities.

  • Classic Rider 2 years ago
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    A reporter for York Daily Record commented on the death rates on motorcycles similar to what is being said all over the country. The death rate is TWICE this year over last year in York, PA (Where the Harley-Davidson plant is located). He also noted the same thing that I have found, namely that 70% of accidents are the fault of the rider now, not the way it used to be. Alcohol is a major factor as is engine size but most of all the age of the rider.

    The majority of riders being killed are over 40 years of age now.
    Motorcycle fatalities now account for 14% of all deaths but less than 1% of miles driven.

    From the descriptions of many fatal accidents, simple loss of control, driving into curbs, parked cars, buildings, missing exits etc. have all become common causes of fatalities. Excess speed is sometimes a factor as well.

    It's pretty clear the those in mid-life crisis are dying on motorcycles at an unprecedented rate. This is certainly due to the lack of genuine testing,

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