Is Bryce Harper a generational talent?

Bryce Harper is expected to be the No. 1 overall pick in the
2010 draft.
Sports Illustrated/June 8, 2009

For some, the Stephen Strasburg hype became insufferable in the months leading up to the draft.

For the same intolerant contingent of draft zealots, the Bryce Harper hype has already reached a boiling point.

Harper's legend began when Tom Verducci penned a well-written, but fantastical piece on the then-16-year-old, saying, "Golf has Tiger Woods, basketball has LeBron James, hockey had Wayne Gretzky and military history had Alexander the Great, but baseball, like jazz, is a discipline that does not easily engender prodigies . . . So good and so young is Bryce Harper, however, that he explodes baseball convention."

And so Harper's road to Cooperstown is paved, even before he is old enough to drive between the hours of 10 p.m. and 5 a.m.

By the numbers, there is no doubting that Harper is a phenom.

He hits 570-foot home runs. He registers 96 mph (maybe more) on the gun. He will advance two bases on one passed ball. He has done these things before his 17th birthday.

When Bryce Harper does pushups, he doesn't lift himself up - he pushes the earth down. Bryce Harper, for our intents and purposes, is the Chuck Norris of amateur baseball.

But Bryce Harper isn't Bryce Harper for how far his home runs travel, or for his preternatural ability to teleport himself around the bases. Rather, Bryce Harper is Bryce Harper because he has obvious premium tools that are ultra rare for any high schooler. Tools that, when described in a way that is not muddled with extreme superlatives and comparisons, help to explain why (at least some of) the hype is merited.

Harper is an elite talent because of his bat. He generates exceptional power with a sound rotational swing, good bat speed and strong wrists and forearms, all while keeping the level swing plane necessary to hit for a high average. He also has fine speed for a catcher and projects as a major league-average runner when he's fully matured physically. The offensive scouting report bears resemblance to that of Josh Hamilton when he was an amateur.

Defensively, Harper's arm already grades as a 70 on the traditional 80-point scouting scale. At USA Baseball's Tournament of Stars this past summer, he often attempted to throw runners out from his knees, sometimes successfully. (Although, he typically registered quicker pop times around 1.80 when he actually stood up to throw, as opposed to a 1.90-1.95 mark from his knees.) Athletic and agile, he should become an above-average receiver/blocker, and he brings advanced defensive instincts that are beyond his years.

Is Bryce Harper a once-in-a-generation kind of player? Despite what someone with no background in evaluating talent (and SI's sensationalist tendencies) would lead you to believe, that expectation is absurd, even if the scouting reports are glowing.

And a "generational talent" is just that - a talent that comes once every generation. So in addition to the unrealistic expectations that some media companies are saddling him with, Harper also battles mathematical improbability. There is just one Alex Rodriguez for a reason.

If there's any sensible forecasting of Harper's odds of becoming a superstar, there's this: he is as equipped as any other high schooler before him - perhaps even more so - to meet those expectations. Not because he throws 96 miles per hour, and not because he can roundhouse kick a home run to dead center field. Bryce Harper is Bryce Harper because he's a truly skilled player with better odds than most to make it big.