Saints (rather than the Vikings) take on the Colts in Super Bowl XLIV

The New Orleans Saints face the Indianapolis Colts in Super Bowl XLIV on Sunday, but let's get something straight: The Minnesota Vikings should be playing in that game. They shouldn't have coughed up the ball three times in the red zone in the NFC title game, they shouldn't have thrown that interception late in regulation, they shouldn't have turned the ball over five times, they shouldn't have had 12 men in the huddle, they shouldn't have gone to overtime and they shouldn't have lost to a team that they out-gained by 218 yards--the first time in NFL playoff history that the losing team did so by such a margin. But they did do those things, so they will be watching instead of playing on Super Bowl Sunday in Miami.

The Vikings have been in that position nine times (either the NFL or NFC title game), which is tied with (the Los Angeles Rams/St. Louis Rams) for fourth most appearances in the whole league. But after four wins in those game (after which they couldn't get over the hump and win the Super Bowl) they have now lost five NFC Championship games in a row that would have gotten them to the hump. The Vikes are 9 for 9 in heartbreak, and this latest one should never have happened. Unfortunately, that changes nothing--as Brad Childress has said: "If ifs and buts were candy nuts, it would be Christmas all year long." It sure isn't Christmas in Minnesota; feels more like lent.

There, we've got that out of ours system, and now we can move onto the business at hand: The Saints and the Colts.

As noted earlier, the Saints beat the Vikings in the NFC Championship, despite being out-gained 475 to 257, on their home field in front of a rabid, Super Bowl-starved crowd. And that is the biggest indicator of how the game will go this weekend. The Saints relied on a high volume of offensive firepower this season, and in their biggest game of the season, quarterback Drew Brees only led them to 189 yards passing yards. The Saints needed five turnovers, one of them in the redzone, to hold off the Vikings in overtime. They scored many of their points on short fields as a result of the turnovers and good special teams play, and they will need that again just to stay in this one.

Indianapolis quarterback Peyton Manning, who captured his record fourth league MVP this season, has been playing at a very high level (33 touchdown passes and 4,500 yards during the regular season.) But he isn't without his mistakes, throwing 16 interceptions this season. During the postseason, he has thrown only one, compared to 5 touchdown passes, and has the most passing yards at 623. But nothing will be important for Manning and the Colts than the fact that they won the Super Bowl in Miami just three seasons ago.

They bring back a number of players who have experience in the rarified hoopla that is Super Bowl week, while many of the Saints are walking around with camcorders and first-timer-itis. This factor cannot be underemphasized. Experience in this weekend of sensory overload is a coveted commodity, as composure will come at a premium, and they who manage their emotions best usually comes out on top.
Then again, few teams know as much about managing emotion as the Saints, who are on a mission for their team, their fans and the spiritual well-being of their city. They are not a team to rollover easily, as they showed two weeks ago. Their defense, which beat Vikings quarterback Brett Favre into a disgusting pulp and knocked Arizona quarterback Kurt Warner into retirement in their past two games, are planning to continue their pulverization of accomplished quarterbacks with Manning. Getting to Manning the machine and making him tilt a bit will be a key to their success.

The ball will be in their air often on Sunday, as both teams like to fling. During the regular season, Indy ranked 32nd in rushing yards while they were second in passing. New Orleans showed a little more balance, ranked 4th in passing and 6th in rushing. Whether injured Indy defensive end Dwight Freeney plays effectively or not, Brees will still have to get the ball out quick to be successful--and Saints head coach will have to find something to do with Reggie Bush to keep the Colts defense guessing. The Vikings really shut down the vaunted Saints offense two weeks ago, and Indianapolis can also. If they do, the game won't be close long, because Manning and the Colts offense are going to score.

In the end, Manning, his experience and his two weeks to get ready for the Saints will be the difference. The Colts offensive line will give Manning the time he needs to slice and dice the Saints. And given how the Saints offense struggled in the NFC Championship game, this game could get away from them early, because the Colts aren't likely to offer up as many gifts as Minnesota did. Indianapolis-34 New Orleans-21.