North Korean missile test only partially successful, experts say

North Korea’s much-anticipated launch of a Tapeodong-2 long-range missile fell short of its stated goals, according to U.S. experts.

A senior defense executive, with years of experience in missile defense programs, reported that the TD-2 suffered a separation failure with its second and third stages, sending the upper portion of the missile—and its payload—into the Pacific Ocean east of Japan.

Pyongyang claimed the rocket was actually a space launch vehicle, designed to place a communications satellite into orbit. North Korean diplomats and media outlets said the effort was successful, but western space and intelligence organizations disputed those statements, noting that the TD-2 did not send its payload into space Many analysts believed the "satellite launch" was little more than cover for a missile test.

“Stage one of the missile fell into the Sea of Japan/East Sea,” announced U.S Northern Command in a statement released Sunday. "The remaining stages along with the payload itself landed in the Pacific Ocean.”

Officials at NORTHCOM and the North American Aerospace Defense Command did not release a splashdown point for the upper stages of the TD-2. However, the missile defense executive told Examiner.com that the remaining stages and payload sections landed southwest of Hawaii.

The latest North Korean missile launch seemed to follow the intended path of past TD-2 flights. Previous tests in 1998 and 2006 appeared aimed in the direction of Hawaii, based on the orientation of the rocket on its launch pad. However, both of those events ended in failure.

Today’s staging failure was also confirmed by retired Air Force Lt Gen Henry Obering III, the former director of the Missile Defense Agency. In an interview with CNN, General Obering said the missile’s second and third stages did not separate as planned, sending the TD-2 into the sea.

There was no immediate explanation for the separation issue. Analysts said a number of factors could have caused the problem.

Also unclear was the configuration of the TD-2 used in the latest test. According to GlobalSecurity.org, Pyongyang has worked on at least three variants of the system, using components produced by North Korea and Iran.

The original version of the missile, dubbed the TD-2A, may have utilized a first stage built in North Korea, with second and third stages developed by Iran. A subsequent “2B” design reportedly incorporated a first stage from the earlier design; a second stage borrowed from the North Korean No Dong medium range missile, and a modified Iranian third stage, nicknamed the “Iris.”

A third model, designated the TD-2C/3, pairs the first and second stages of the No Dong with an Iranian third stage. Intelligence analysts believe the missiles tested this weekend and in 2006 were either 2B or 2C/3 variants.

Despite today’s failure, General Obering cautioned that North Korea has crossed an important technical milestone. With the extended flight of the TD-2, he said that Pyongyang has “cleared the hurdle” of missile staging, gaining the technological proficiency needed to produce more reliable, long-range missiles.

But the DPRK’s latest missile test will also yield valuable information on the TD-2’s performance and capabilities. The launch was carefully monitored by an array of tracking platforms and intelligence sensors, ranging from spy satellites and long-range radars, to reconnaissance aircraft like the Air Force RC-135 Cobra Ball, which monitors ballistic missile tests.

The missile defense executive said a number of U.S. experts were “at their desks” when the missile launched, and began analyzing data as the event ended. Information collected during the test will lead to better intelligence assessments of the TD-2 and refinements in ballistic missile technology and testing.

“We just got to record the details of a real, operational threat,” the defense executive observed. He said that information from the North Korean test will produce “more realistic scenarios and target vehicles for future ballistic missile defense flight tests.”

Much of the technical analysis of the TD-2 flight will be conducted by the National Air and Space Intelligence Center, an Air Force organization located in Dayton, Ohio. Under an agreement with the Army, the USAF agency is responsible for assessments of long-range missiles, although the services have battled over that mission in recent years.

With a range of at least 5,000 miles, the TD-2 is capable of reaching targets in Alaska and Hawaii. At least one Air Force assessment has suggested that the North Korean missile could hit targets on the U.S. west coast, delivering a small chemical or biological payload.

Pyongyang’s latest missile test came in defiance of existing international resolutions, and sparked near-universal condemnation. The U.N. Security Council was scheduled to address the TD-2 launch in an emergency session on Sunday afternoon. U.S. President Barack Obama has also pledged to seek additional punishment for North Korea.

But China and Russia—the closest allies of the DPRK—are expected to water down any new sanctions on the isolated, communist state. The Obama Administration has also indicated a willingness to look past the missile launch, in hopes of restarting talks on Pyongyang’s nuclear program. Against that backdrop, diplomats warned, it may be impossible to impose meaningful punishment on North Korea.