The left has some troubles. (AP)
On one side, you have those committed to their cause, trying to make the party stay true to its principles. On the other, you have the moderates. They want to be committed, but they also want to reach out to those in the middle and across the aisle. They're in moderate districts and they're very worried about getting votes in the next election.
I'm speaking about the Democrats, of course.
In the midst of the election in upstate New York which caused a schism on the Republican side, many in the media have jumped all over this. Most of them see it as huge trouble for the GOP, something that would lead to real defeat in next years' congressional races. But they miss the real story.
There are always splits in each party between the moderates and the true-believers. But I don't think the problem in 2010 will be on the Right. With the upcoming vote on health care, the Left is split. MoveOn and other progressive groups promise to get out the vote and bump Democrats from office who don't support a public option. Speaking about moderate Democrat Blanche Lincoln from Arkansas on The Rachel Maddow Show, left-wing blogger Jane Hamsher said, "I dare Blanch Lincoln to join a filibuster...She'll draw primary opponents so fast your head will spin."
At one point, Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi promised a vote on health would take place in August, then October, then Thanksgiving, then Christmas, now...maybe next year. Right about now they're wishing it would have happened months ago, or at least before this past election. After the Nov. 3rd wins for Republicans, the moderate and Blue Dog Democrats are wary, attempting to ram through a bill now makes them downright terrified (New Jersey Democrat Bill Pascrell: "People who had weak knees before are going to have weaker knees now."). And the closer it gets to next year’s elections, the worst it is for them.
According to the Washington Post, Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-W.V.), "said there was palpable concern among his colleagues Wednesday that the main agenda items Democrats are pursuing--health care and climate change--resonate very little with voters focused on finding or keeping jobs."
It's a lot to put on the plate for a Red-state Dem: The stimulus package, cap and trade and now health care? It's a no-win situation for a lot of them; vote for the bill and lose your seat in the general election, vote against it and draw the wrath of Speaker Pelosi and the far-left wing of the party.
The Republican Party will fight its battles out in the primaries, but the base will eventually be unified behind an anti-government theme (which they will undoubtedly abandon once in office). But my guess is that the Democratic civil war will divide the troops...all the way up until election day.
Comments
You point out some policy disagreements among Democrats, none of which has led to any losses in elections, and try to say they are having a "civil war". Then you breeze over the very real battles in the GOP, which has already led to one election loss and has the potential for many more, and claim it will all be good. I find your argument extremely unconvincing.
I suspect the American people are gonna welcome health care reform, regardless of how small, and take note of the Republicans uniform objection and hold them to the fire come November 2010.
I'll take that bet Ken. I agree that they will pass something, simply because if they don't it is too big of a defeat to swallow. But if you think the Democrats will benefit next November...I just don't know what to say.
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