The trend of relative tranquility in the Atlantic basin continues as of this update. A large portion of the central Atlantic Ocean is under the influence of broad and expansive high pressure, not uncommon for this time of year. A few tropical waves are being monitored over the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
Activity in the Pacific Ocean is highlighted by a a tropical storm, Ivo, that is threatening the Baja Peninsula and coastal resort areas along the western Mexican coast.
NOTE: Please refer to the numbered sections of the maps in the accompanying slideshow for a discussion on each area being monitored.
…ATLANTIC / CARIBBEAN / GULF OF MEXICO DISCUSSION…
- Tropical wave over the eastern Atlantic Ocean: A tropical wave, which moved over the open waters of the Atlantic from the African continent a few days prior, is exhibiting minimal signs of organization. The wave is over the vicinity of 10N latitude, and 30W longitude. The once robust area of thunderstorm activity and enhanced cloud tops with this feature has significantly diminished over the past 12 to 18 hours, and it appears to be having lots of difficulty regaining any pronounced organization and/or circulation.
- Shower and thunderstorm complex over the Yucatan Peninsula & western Caribbean Sea: Shower and thunderstorm clusters have formed over this general area within the past 12 hours or so. Being over the warm waters of this area, the activity does bear watching. As of this time though, no defined low level circulation appears to be evident on Satellite or surface / sea surface observations.
- Louisiana / Mississippi / eastern Florida Gulf Coastal area: Showers and thunderstorms have developed over this area within the last day or so. They appear to be on the tail end of a mid-latitude cold front that swept through the eastern United States within the past 24 hours. There have been several convective ‘flare up’s’ within the past day or so over this same general area that have not indicated any ‘tropical system’ development. However, this area of disturbed weather is continuing to be monitored for any signs of low level organization and circulation.
...EASTERN PACIFIC DISCUSSION...
- Tropical Storm “Ivo” (storm location and data courtesy of National Hurricane Center):
- Location: 22.5 N latitude, 113.4 W longitude. Approximately 225 Miles west of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico
- Maximum sustained winds: 45 MPH.
- Minimum central pressure: 998 MB or 29.47 inMg.
- Movement: North of northwest at about 13 MPH
Ivo will bring some turbulent weather conditions to the resort areas along the west central Mexican coast, and the Baja Peninsula, within the next 24 to 48 hours. The storm is forecast to parallel the Baja Peninsula, bringing elevated surf along this area, and along portions of the western-central Mexican coastline. Swells produced by the system will bring extremely dangerous conditions across the coastal areas. Rainfall from the storm is expected to be in the 1 to 3 inch range with localized higher amounts in topographically favored areas.
Tropical Storm force winds extend outward up to 195 miles from the center of the storm. General movement is expected to be to the west and northwest, with a general weakening trend expected as the system moves over some cooler water, and has some interactions with the land mass to its east.
- Convective flare up over far southeastern Pacific (along the 10 N 100 W). A rather disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms was located along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) just south of southernmost Mexico. No defined low level circulation is evident at this update.