The tropical Atlantic and Pacific basins of interest to the Continental United States remain, for the most part, relatively quiet with few areas of potential for development. A large and sweeping trough, and attendant surface cold front, has made impressive eastward movement into the central Atlantic, displacing a once prominent area of high pressure that dominated most of the this area for weeks prior. Some activity just south and east of this frontal system bears watching.
Most of the Gulf of Mexico is now under the influence of dominant high pressure, hence activity in that theatre is sparse to say the least. A few tropical waves further eastward over the Atlantic Ocean are being monitored for development and will be discussed in further detail below.
The eastern Pacific Ocean continues to be quite quiet as well. Only one significant area of potential organization is evident, well off the Mexican coastline, and this area of disturbed weather appears to be moving away from land.
NOTE: Please refer to the slideshow attached. The areas numbered on the slideshow are referenced in the discussions below.
…ATLANTIC & CARIBBEAN DISCUSSION…
- Tropical wave emerging off the African Coast: Fresh off the African mainland, a tropical wave has emerged over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean (roughly at 15N 19W) and is showing some signs of organization (a center of circulation perhaps evident on some of the latest satellite animations). This feature is a few days removed from impacting the Cape Verde Islands, but does bear watching, as there is little if any other weather feature to interact with it and cause any potential weakening.
- Tropical wave (Investigation area HS25L) east of the Lesser Antilles: A rather disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms was moving westward, toward the Lesser Antilles, and was a day or two from impacting those Islands. Activity appears to be centered around 16N and 52W, with a general westward movement. A general weakening, and reforming pattern appears to have been occurring over the past few days with this area of convection. Limited, if any, low level circulation appears to be evident, and with a large trough to its north, potentially shearing the tops off of any enhanced convective activity, not much in the way of development is expected at this time.
- Large swath of cloud cover and showers / storms on southern tip of central Atlantic surface trough: An area of enhanced cloud cover, with a hint of organization, was noted along the southeastern flank of a large trough descending through the central Atlantic Ocean. Activity was generally centered around 25N and 60W. This area of convection may need to be monitored should it be able to break free, and become independent of, the larger trough structure to its north. At this point, should the general eastward movement it has exhibited over the past 12 hours persist, it would move into the central Atlantic, and weaken, as it encounters cooler water. There has been some notice of low level convergence between this system, and the prevailing easterlies (easterly wind flow in the upper levels) to its south, and should this interaction persist, there is potential for the complex to mature, and perhaps be swept up by the easterlies (potential independence from the trough structure mentioned above).
- Shower and storm activity over the central Caribbean Sea: An area of showers and thunderstorms had blossomed over the central Caribbean Sea, with not much indication of organization or low level circulation.
- Shower and storm activity off the Florida Gulf Coast: A lone area of showers and thunderstorms was just south of the Florida panhandle, over the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico. The majority of the water body is under the influence of strong and solid high pressure though, and hence this convective flare up is going to be hard pressed to find any help from the Gulf waters. The environment in the general area appears rather unfavorable, and in fact more hostile, to the development of any tropical circulation.
…EASTERN PACIFIC DISCUSSION…
- Tropical Depression 11E (position and track information credit: National Hurricane Center):
- Location: 19.1 N 116.5 W or about 500 mlies WSW of the southern tip of Baja, CA.
- Maximum Sustained Winds: 35 MPH
- Movement: NW at 7 MPH
- Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 MB or 29.68”
Latest satellite images do show a defined area of low level circulation with this system, as it continues its northwestward movement. The movement is expected to become more north of northwest in time, with perhaps a slight strengthening into a low grade tropical storm in the next day or two. At this point, the storm is several days away from being any threat to an appreciable land mass.
2. The usual clusters of showers and thunderstorms, associated with the northern extent of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) continue to persist over the southern Mexican coastal areas. However, at this point, none of these storm complexes appears to be exhibiting any structure or organization with regard to becoming tropical entities.