A storm system will bring some showers and thunderstorms to the southern Plains into early next week, with the biggest threat of severe thunderstorms capable of producing gusty winds and large hail in west Texas on Easter Sunday and shifting eastward towards the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area on Monday.
At this time, the tornado threat does not appear to be as great due to weak low level shear, but an isolated and brief tornado cannot be ruled out. The threat for gusty winds and large hail will spread south and east toward the Interstate 35 corridor on Monday.
A greater severe threat may be looming into mid-week, starting on Wednesday, but significant model differences continue at this time. The locations that might be under the gun include a narrow corridor from central Nebraska into northwest Texas. The extent of the warm sector and the amount of moisture available remain a bit in question, but if more instability can be realized in the warm sector, there is the potential for a more significant severe event that could last over multiple days.
Check out the list for more details.
Easter Sunday Storms
An upper level low will provide the possibility for a few strong to severe thunderstorms from western Oklahoma southward into western Texas.
The primary threat from any supercells that do develop will be gusty winds and large hail, but an isolated and brief tornado cannot be ruled out.
Easter Sunday Weather
The strong to severe thunderstorm activity in the southern Plains states will be the only significant threat across the nation on Easter Sunday as much of the northern Rockies, southeastern states, and northward into the mid-Atlantic and northeast will remain dry and mild.
An advancing dry line and a focused jet stream overhead will be the main focus for storms in the southern Plains on Easter Sunday as more moist and humid air is ushered northward out of the Gulf of Mexico.
Early Next Week
Storms will then advance along a cold front into portions of the Midwest by early next week with a much less threat of severe weather expected. Dry and mild weather will continue across the Rockies, southeastern states, and into the northeast.
Wednesday Severe Weather
The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a narrow corridor for the potential of severe thunderstorms into Wednesday from central Nebraska southward into northwest Texas. If more instability can develop in the warm sector, a greater severe threat may be warranted, possibly continuing for several days as the storm system advances eastward.