San Jose Sharks prepare for invasion of Nashville Predators

The power play and penalty kill success rates for the San Jose Sharks can commonly be quoted from memory by the most ardent fans and analysts alike. Five-on-five play is overlooked by many of the same people.Many penalties do not result in a power play. Those that result in both teams being down a man are impossible to quantify because NHL.com stats do not include this information.The difference between the teams at full strength is a three-goal margin in the Sharks favor. But two goals of that margin are lost because they have given up three goals to scoring just one with both teams skating four; the final one is lost because one of the goals scored on them was by the Predators.Thus, the difference in this game is likely to be on special teams. What really matters then is not just what the penalty kill percentage is, but how often a team is shorthanded. It does not matter if a team has a fantastic power play if they are never on it.How often do the Sharks use their special teams? They are shorthanded an average of 3.9 times per game and have the advantage an NHL-high 4.8 times per game. The Predators are killing penalties just 3.4 times per game but on the power play just 3.3.Despite recent struggles, San Jose is two percent and seven ranks better on the power play. The penalty kill is ranked fifth in the NHL at 86.5 percent while Nashville is ranked 18th at 80.3In other words, the Sharks are more likely to draw and take penalties. They are more likely to have those special teams units succeed. Therefore, that is their vehicle to victory.Once the San Jose Sharks have the puck, they need to find a way to score. That means shooting.If the Nashville Predators have the puck, the Sharks will fight hard to prevent the score. There are many elements to this: Antti Niemi in net, takeaways that were part of the puck possession analysis, hits that are too subjective to be relied on and blocking shots.Only three NHL teams have more blocked shots per game than San Jose. Only six have a better ratio of blocked shots to shots allowed on goal.Unfortunately, the Nashville Predators are one of them. They are right behind the Sharks in blocks per game but allow 2.3 fewer shots to get through per game. That leaves only the Colorado Avalanche and Anaheim Ducks with a better blocks to shots allowed ratio.Still, the Sharks get four more shots on net per five games than they allow, ranking 12th in the NHL. The Predators shoot less than every other team and are ahead of just six teams in shot differential, with their foes getting 2.6 more on net per game.The San Jose Sharks are a puck possession team. They are one of the best teams in the circle, but they are so much more prone to giveaways that their opposition has actually had four more quantifiable possessions (draws won and takeaways minus draws lost and giveaways).It is interesting to note that while San Jose was winning they were turning the puck over. At the end of the losing streak, they had cleared up that problem but saw their offense struggle. Is it possible they need to be more aggressive not only shooting the puck but passing it?Perhaps Saturday is not the night to test that theory. The Nashville Predators are a counter-punching team able to take advantage of opportunities like giveaways. As such, they are less reliant in having the puck often. Yet they still wound up three measurable possessions better because they are above average in the circle and do not give the puck away.View the list »
Nashville Predators goalie Pekka Rinne is 7-2-4 vs. the San Jose Sharks for his career

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The last time the Nashville Predators invaded the HP Pavilion, they broke the seven-game unbeaten streak to start the season for the San Jose Sharks. They look to complete a three-game season sweep on Saturday, March 2, having won both previous games after regulation.

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Nashville's momentum should mean more than which rink they are playing on: San Jose has gone 2-3-1 since the last meeting and 2-6-4 for the month compared to 3-4-1 and 7-5-2, respectively for Saturday's foe.

Technically, the Predators have slipped ahead of the Sharks by one point in the Western Conference standings. But in any league but the NHL, the standings would show the home team a half-game ahead of their guests who have played two more games.

HP Pavilion
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Yet the Predators may be more rested, having last played Wednesday. If the Sharks could not handle a team that had played the night before in another city, how will they handle a rested one?

The answer lies in the numbers.

Neither team has had any luck scoring in this series—one goal a piece in regulation between the two games—or this season. The Sharks are 26th in the NHL at 2.21 goals per game after scoring just 15 in 12 games in February. That included both games against the Predators, who have the worst offense in the NHL at 2.05 goals per game.

Not surprisingly, both teams are adept defensively. San Jose ranks fifth in the NHL by giving up just 2.10 goals per game, but Nashville is just two spots behind them at 2.29.

This makes it appear a lock to be a low-scoring game. An average score that accounts for both teams on both ends of the ice would be 2.25 for San Jose to 2.07 for their foes.

Of course, rarely does a team have an average game. Averages presuppose that everyone is level at game time.

Still, trends are no more reliable. The truth is that a team that is hot can be cold and a cold team hot on the same night.

There is a good chance that by 20 games—what would be the quarter pole in an 82-game season—things have evened out for most teams. In San Jose's case, the ebbs and flows (or flow and ebb) were quite apparent in their record. Their success followed their scoring, as they had 23 goals in their first five games and 19 outside of the shootout in the following 14.

The real Sharks are not as good as they started the season nor as bad as they have been recently. But the scoring is low overall and especially outside of the power play, showing that this is a team that has scoring deficiencies even if they are not as severe as they have been of late.

The Predators have long been an offensively-challenged team, but they have rarely been the worst in the NHL. Thus they have as much hope for improvement as their hosts.

The more variables that get dismissed from an analysis because they cannot be measured or because there is an approximately equivalent counter-variable, the more it comes down to the numbers. A look into the components of the game that are the vehicles to each team's result helps create a clearer picture of what to expect.

View the list
  • The San Jose Sharks are a puck possession team. They are one of the best teams in the circle, but they are so much more prone to giveaways that their opposition has actually had four more quantifiable possessions (draws won and takeaways minus draws lost and giveaways).It is interesting to note that while San Jose was winning they were turning the puck over. At the end of the losing streak, they had cleared up that problem but saw their offense struggle. Is it possible they need to be more aggressive not only shooting the puck but passing it?Perhaps Saturday is not the night to test that theory. The Nashville Predators are a counter-punching team able to take advantage of opportunities like giveaways. As such, they are less reliant in having the puck often. Yet they still wound up three measurable possessions better because they are above average in the circle and do not give the puck away.
  • Once the San Jose Sharks have the puck, they need to find a way to score. That means shooting.If the Nashville Predators have the puck, the Sharks will fight hard to prevent the score. There are many elements to this: Antti Niemi in net, takeaways that were part of the puck possession analysis, hits that are too subjective to be relied on and blocking shots.Only three NHL teams have more blocked shots per game than San Jose. Only six have a better ratio of blocked shots to shots allowed on goal.Unfortunately, the Nashville Predators are one of them. They are right behind the Sharks in blocks per game but allow 2.3 fewer shots to get through per game. That leaves only the Colorado Avalanche and Anaheim Ducks with a better blocks to shots allowed ratio.Still, the Sharks get four more shots on net per five games than they allow, ranking 12th in the NHL. The Predators shoot less than every other team and are ahead of just six teams in shot differential, with their foes getting 2.6 more on net per game.
  • The power play and penalty kill success rates for the San Jose Sharks can commonly be quoted from memory by the most ardent fans and analysts alike. Five-on-five play is overlooked by many of the same people.Many penalties do not result in a power play. Those that result in both teams being down a man are impossible to quantify because NHL.com stats do not include this information.The difference between the teams at full strength is a three-goal margin in the Sharks favor. But two goals of that margin are lost because they have given up three goals to scoring just one with both teams skating four; the final one is lost because one of the goals scored on them was by the Predators.Thus, the difference in this game is likely to be on special teams. What really matters then is not just what the penalty kill percentage is, but how often a team is shorthanded. It does not matter if a team has a fantastic power play if they are never on it.How often do the Sharks use their special teams? They are shorthanded an average of 3.9 times per game and have the advantage an NHL-high 4.8 times per game. The Predators are killing penalties just 3.4 times per game but on the power play just 3.3.Despite recent struggles, San Jose is two percent and seven ranks better on the power play. The penalty kill is ranked fifth in the NHL at 86.5 percent while Nashville is ranked 18th at 80.3In other words, the Sharks are more likely to draw and take penalties. They are more likely to have those special teams units succeed. Therefore, that is their vehicle to victory.
View the list

, San Jose Sharks Examiner

Former community leader and featured columnist for the San Jose Sharks on Bleacher Report, MJ Kasprzak has been covering the Bay Area's most successful team for over four years. You may have seen MJ's work featured on Yahoo, CBS Sports and Fox Sports websites as well as numerous other places that...

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