Oscar Predictions: Reuben's Fearless Picks

Nominees:Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings PlaybookHugh Jackman – Les MiserablesDaniel Day-Lewis – LincolnJoaquin Phoenix – The MasterDenzel Washington – Flight WILL WIN: Daniel Day-Lewis – LincolnSHOULD WIN: Joaquin Phoenix – The Master WHY: This one is definitely the easiest call of the night. Day-Lewis will win the Oscar making him the first actor to win three Best Actor Oscars. As much as I love Day-Lewis and his performance, my vote would have gone to Phoenix for his astounding live-wire act in The Master. A performance for the ages.Nominees:Michael Haneke – AmourAng Lee – Life of PiSteven Spielberg – LincolnDavid O. Russell – Silver Linings PlaybookBen Zeitlin – Beasts of the Southern Wild WILL WIN: Ang Lee – Life of PiSHOULD WIN: Ang Lee – Life of Pi WHY: Since golden boy Affleck was inexplicably left off the ballot – he would have won had he been nominated – this one becomes one of the most hotly contested categories of the night. It also becomes, by default, the second place prize. Spielberg may look like the frontrunner on paper but how many people in the industry truly love the film? Not many. Also, buzz for the film seems to have cooled off significantly, outside of Daniel Day-Lewis’ performance. With fellow DGA nominee Ang Lee also in the running, my guess is that most members are going to check their votes for him – and it will be a deserving win. Whatever your thoughts on the film may be, there’s no denying that Life of Pi is a remarkable directorial achievement.Nominees:AmourArgoBeasts of the Southern WildDjango UnchainedLife of PiLincolnLes MiserablesSilver Linings PlaybookZero Dark Thirty WILL WIN: ArgoSHOULD WIN: Life of Pi WHY: It’s a done deal, locked, loaded, sealed with a kiss. Ben Affleck is Hollywood’s Golden Boy and this is his moment in the sun. Argo also happens to be the movie almost everyone can agree on – it’s smartly crafted, it shows Hollywood as the good guys who save the day, and it’s the least polarizing flick of the bunch, even if it’s by far from the best. But then again, how often is Best Picture really the Best Picture?View the list »
Life of Pi

Movies newsletter

I've been following the Oscar race since 1999 when American Beauty swept the board at the Oscars but in all my time following awards season, never have I encountered a season as crazy as this one. People have called this season many things but predictable it wasn't. Click below to read my predictions in every Oscar category.

Related topics

Advertisement
View the list
  • Nominees:AmourArgoBeasts of the Southern WildDjango UnchainedLife of PiLincolnLes MiserablesSilver Linings PlaybookZero Dark Thirty WILL WIN: ArgoSHOULD WIN: Life of Pi WHY: It’s a done deal, locked, loaded, sealed with a kiss. Ben Affleck is Hollywood’s Golden Boy and this is his moment in the sun. Argo also happens to be the movie almost everyone can agree on – it’s smartly crafted, it shows Hollywood as the good guys who save the day, and it’s the least polarizing flick of the bunch, even if it’s by far from the best. But then again, how often is Best Picture really the Best Picture?
  • Nominees:Michael Haneke – AmourAng Lee – Life of PiSteven Spielberg – LincolnDavid O. Russell – Silver Linings PlaybookBen Zeitlin – Beasts of the Southern Wild WILL WIN: Ang Lee – Life of PiSHOULD WIN: Ang Lee – Life of Pi WHY: Since golden boy Affleck was inexplicably left off the ballot – he would have won had he been nominated – this one becomes one of the most hotly contested categories of the night. It also becomes, by default, the second place prize. Spielberg may look like the frontrunner on paper but how many people in the industry truly love the film? Not many. Also, buzz for the film seems to have cooled off significantly, outside of Daniel Day-Lewis’ performance. With fellow DGA nominee Ang Lee also in the running, my guess is that most members are going to check their votes for him – and it will be a deserving win. Whatever your thoughts on the film may be, there’s no denying that Life of Pi is a remarkable directorial achievement.
  • Nominees:Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings PlaybookHugh Jackman – Les MiserablesDaniel Day-Lewis – LincolnJoaquin Phoenix – The MasterDenzel Washington – Flight WILL WIN: Daniel Day-Lewis – LincolnSHOULD WIN: Joaquin Phoenix – The Master WHY: This one is definitely the easiest call of the night. Day-Lewis will win the Oscar making him the first actor to win three Best Actor Oscars. As much as I love Day-Lewis and his performance, my vote would have gone to Phoenix for his astounding live-wire act in The Master. A performance for the ages.
  • Nominees:Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark ThirtyJennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings PlaybookEmmanuelle Riva – AmourQuvenzhane Wallis – Beasts of the Southern WildNaomi Watts – The Impossible WILL WIN: Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings PlaybookSHOULD WIN: Emmanuelle Riva – Amour WHY: What was once considered an in-the-bag award for Lawrence has suddenly become a hotly contested category after Riva, the 85-year-old French screen legend unexpectedly picked up the Best Actress award at the BAFTAs.  While many are betting on the veteran to take it, as she should, because when it comes to true craft, her performance has no peer, I still think Lawrence will bag the award for delivering a very good performance, having a stellar year, and sadly, being the exact type of performer the Academy veers towards in this category – the young, attractive, out-spoken superstar.
  • Nominees:Alan Arkin – ArgoPhilip Seymour Hoffman – The MasterTommy Lee Jones – LincolnRobert De Niro – Silver Linings PlaybookChristoph Waltz – Django Unchained WILL WIN: Christoph Waltz – Django UnchainedSHOULD WIN: Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master WHY: Arguably the toughest category of the night – for a couple of reasons: All men are previous winners – a first in Oscar history – so there isn’t a “due” factor. Secondly, all give terrific scene-stealing performances, and finally, the precursors have been all over the map. Hoffman won at the BFCA, Waltz won at the Globes and the BAFTAs, Jones won at the all-important SAG and De Niro has been campaigning harder than all four other nominees combined! Arkin is the only one who I can safely predict will not win. While I would go with the SAG winner in any other year, Jones’ grumpiness and Lincoln’s dead buzz will have certainly pulled away votes from him. De Niro may be campaigning really hard but are voters going to give him his third Oscar for finally deciding to give a good performance again after a decade of slumming? Waltz may have won just three years ago but he’s the spark in one of the year’s most enjoyable films.
  • Nominees:Amy Adams – The MasterAnne Hathaway – Les MiserablesHelen Hunt – The SessionsSally Field – LincolnJackie Weaver – Silver Linings Playbook WILL WIN: Anne Hathaway – Les MiserablesSHOULD WIN: Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables WHY: No offence to Adams, Weaver, Hunt and even Field who is hoping to go three-for-three, but anyone who can make a bad, long and bloated movie into riveting cinema for 10 minutes deserves an Oscar. It might be Oscar-baiting supreme but Hathaway convinced me she’s the one most deserving of the award the moment that big one-shot scene ended. Congratulations Academy Award winner Anne Hathaway!
  • Nominees:ArgoBeasts of the Southern WildLife of PiLincolnSilver Linings Playbook WILL WIN: Argo (Chris Terrio)SHOULD WIN: Lincoln (Tony Kushner) WHY: With Argo out of Director and the frontrunner in Best Picture, the Academy will want to throw it a bone in at least one or two other categories – winning Best Picture without any other awards are very rare – in fact, it’s happened only three times in the 85 year history of the Academy – all three of those coming in the first few years. Combine that stat with the WGA win for screenwriter Chris Terrio over supposed frontrunners Tony Kushner (Lincoln) and David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook) and there’s a very good chance Argo will walk away with this award.
  • Nominees:AmourDjango UnchainedFlightMoonrise KingdomZero Dark Thirty WILL WIN: Amour (Michael Haneke)SHOULD WIN: Zero Dark Thirty (Mark Boal) WHY: Poor Zero Dark Thirty. Once considered a formidable Best Picture contender, the CIA drama became the victim of a vicious smear campaign from Washington, surely orchestrated by a rival campaign. With the film out of the running in the Director category, and handed a tough blow by the media, its chances on Oscar night for a win in any category look slim. Then there’s Tarantino – who on paper seems to be the frontrunner here. But are voters going to vote for a messy screenplay that’s universally regarded as an inferior work to 2009’s Inglorious Basterds? We’ll see but my money’s on Michael Haneke taking the award for his brutal, no-nonsense and dead-honest portrayal of love and death in Amour. It would be a handsome winner.
  • Nominees:BraveFrankenweeniePirates: Band of MisfitsParanormanWreck-It-Ralph WILL WIN: BraveSHOULD WIN: Wreck-it-Ralph WHY: Until earlier this week, I was certain Wreck-it-Ralph would win for its vastly enjoyable story, gorgeous animation and clever writing but then it hit me – this award is voted by the Academy as a whole, not just the animation branch. Pixar is extremely well-loved and even though Brave wasn’t a knock out success like some of their previous films, it wasn’t a failure like the Cars films. Combine that factor with Wreck-it-Ralph’s video game themes – something most of the Academy is bound to be resistant towards, and you have yourself a makings of an upset. I’m taking a risk with this prediction but you know the saying, no guts, no glory!
  • Nominees:Amour – AustriaKon Tiki - NorwayNo – ChileA Royal Affair – DenmarkWar Witch – Canada WILL WIN: AmourSHOULD WIN: I haven’t seen all the nominees. WHY: This category tends to be extremely ripe for upsets but Amour is the first Foreign Language Film nominated for Best Picture since Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon in 2000. That has to count for something. It’s also a great way to honor one of the premiere voices in world cinema. Amour for the win.
  • Nominees:5 Broken CamerasThe GatekeepersHow to Survive a PlagueThe Invisible WarSearching for Sugar Man WILL WIN: Searching for Sugar ManSHOULD WIN: The Invisible War WHY: There’s a reason why Searching for Sugar Man has swept the precursor circuit. Not only is it a vastly entertaining, masterfully constructed yarn, it’s also the only one in the group that gets people excited. The other nominees all make you feel angry, depressed, shocked, appalled, confused or helpless. It’s a stupid reason but unfortunately, that’s how the cookie crumbles. If it were up to me, I’d give my vote to The Invisible War for bringing to light a horrible and frankly appalling tragedy still happening today: the unchecked cases of rape in the U.S. army.CLICK TO READ PART 2
View the list
Suggested by the author:

, Ft. Lauderdale Movie Examiner

A self-confessed awards geek, box office junkie and part-time snob, Reuben is a Miami native who found his calling as a writer and cinema aficionado sometime in 1998 after catching Steven Spielberg's "Saving Private Ryan." A member of the Florida Film Critics Circle, Reuben enjoys his free time...

Advertisement

Today's top buzz...