The Capital Region remains under the general influence of a low pressure system over southern Canada, whose warm front passed through the area yesterday. The system’s cold front was passing through the Great Lakes this morning. The Capital Region was in the area south of the warm front, but east of the cold front, an area known to the meteorological community as the ‘warm sector’ of the low pressure area. Holding true to form, the weather in the warm sector of this low pressure area will be just that today. Hazy, hot, and humid conditions are expected across the entire region after morning fog burns off. Temperatures may flirt with the 90 degree mark from the Capital Region southward today. A spattering of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms is possible thanks in part to the warm and humid airmass in place.
The cold front over the Great Lakes this morning will make slow but steady eastward progress tonight. As the front approaches the region, showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous in time, with some locally heavy rainfall possible in spots. On Thursday afternoon and evening, as the cold front slices through the area and interacts with the copious amounts of low level moisture and warmth in place, strong to locally severe thunderstorms will be possible in spots. The greatest threat with storms appears to be very heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning.
The front should be east of the region by Friday morning, and after a few residual showers on the front’s backside on Friday morning, conditions should improve as the day goes on. High temperatures will be a good 20 to 30 degrees lower Friday than they are forecast to be today. In addition, as high pressure from Canada builds into the region, a fresh northwesterly breeze should initiate during the afternoon, lasting through sunset.
Below normal temperatures, and fair weather, are forecast through the coming weekend and into the new work week as high pressure remains in firm control of the weather.
...Below is the official forecast for the Capital Region and vicinity...
Today: Hazy, hot, and humid with a chance of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall is possible in any thunderstorm. High near 90. Southwest winds 5-15 MPH. Chance of rain is 30 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy and muggy with showers and thunderstorms developing. Locally heavy rainfall is possible. Low near 70. South winds 5-10 MPH. Chance of rain is 60 percent.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy and humid. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Some of the storms may be strong to locally severe with strong winds and heavy rainfall. High 80-85. Southwest winds 5-15 MPH, with higher gusts possible in the vicinity of any thunderstorm. Chance of rain is 80 percent.
Thursday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely during the evening, slowly tapering off overnight. Less humid. Low near 60. Southwest winds, shifting northwest 5-10 MPH. Chance of rain is 60 percent.
Friday: A slight chance of a morning shower. Otherwise, becoming mostly sunny, breezy, and noticeably cooler. High in the upper 60’s. Northwest winds 10-20 MPH. Chance of rain in the morning is 20 percent.
Saturday: Mostly sunny and breezy. High near 65 and low near 40.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. High near 70 and low near 45.
Monday: Mostly sunny. High near 70 and low near 50.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High near 65 and low near 45.