2013 prediction for the AL East: It's anybody's ball game

I'm relying on John Farrell for this prediction.  I am counting on him to get Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, and John Lackey turned around.  I'm also banking on the fact that the Red Sox followed my blue print almost to a tee on how to revamp their team.  I called for the signings of Mike Napoli, Shane Victorino, Stephen Drew, and Koji Uehara.  Ben Cherington obliged-- I always knew he read my stuff.  Cherington also added Jonny Gomes, Ryan Dempster, and Joel Hanrahan without consulting me.The biggest problem, though, in my opinion was the re-signing of David Ortiz. Ortiz is still recovering from an Achilles injury suffered last July.  That didn't matter to the Red Sox.  They signed the 37-year-old DH to a two-year, $26 million contract in the offseason.  Now it looks like he will be out at least for the first couple of weeks of the season.  I'm thinking it will be much longer than that.Without Ortiz's presence, it leaves a huge void in the heart of the lineup.  Gomes, Napoli, and Will Middlebrooks will be the only legitimate power threats.  Middlebrooks is coming off a broken wrist and Napoli has degenerative hips.The pitching should be much better this year.  Lester has looked real sharp this spring.  Lackey has lost a lot of weight and looks to be in the best shape of his life.  The bullpen is solid, but not as great as some may believe.  I am not confident that Hanrahan will be effective in Boston.  The Sox have many other options, however, in Bailey, Uehara, Junichi Tazawa, and maybe even Daniel Bard in case Hanrahan pulls a Gagne.Look for the offense to struggle to consistently score runs, but the pitching should be much better.  If they get anything out of Ortiz this season, their win total could rise to near 90.  2014 looks far more promising for Boston.Players to watch: Jackie Bradley Jr., Will Middlebrooks, Allen Webster, Rubby De La Rosa.This is an old team with no depth and, seemingly, no plan.The Yankees have been ravaged with injuries and the season hasn't even begun.  Mark Teixeira, Curtis Granderson, Alex Rodriguez are expected to miss significant time.  Derek Jeter, recovering from a broken ankle suffered in the postseason last year, may not be fully recovered enough to play the field on Opening Day.  The Opening Day lineup may see Kevin Youkilis, Dan Johnson, Travis Hafner, Juan Rivera, Chris Stewart, and Eduardo Nunez in it. Does that lineup intimidate you?43-year-old Mariano Rivera, coming off right knee surgery which cost him all of last season, will be pitching the last year of his Hall of Fame career.  Is it safe to say he won't be the same Mariano Rivera we have been accustomed to seeing?  And what if he gets hurt again?  Last year, manager Joe Girardi had Rafael Soriano and even David Robertson to fall back on.  Soriano is gone to Washington, and Robertson has struggled when asked to fill in as a closer.  There is no one behind Robertson that can be trusted, either.The lack of a bullpen will put added stress on the starting rotation.  The top three are... wait for it... old.  CC Sabathia may only be 32 years old, but he has logged so many innings in his career he might as well be 40.  Andy Pettitte is 40.  Hideki Kuroda is 38.As injuries mount for this team, and players begin showing their age, this could be a long, long season for the Bronx Senior Citizens.Person to watch: Steve Donohue, the Yankees head trainer.Kudos to manager Buck Showalter on a job very well done last year.  His Orioles won 93 games in 2012.  Showalter got a nice healthy contract extension out of it.  Can he work his magic again this year?  Doubt it.  The Orioles won 16 straight extra-inning games last year.  What are the odds of that happening again?  The Orioles were 29-9 in one-run games.  Let's cut nine wins off of that as a starting point.Last year I mocked their starting pitching, but they have a couple of keepers in Wei-Yen Chen and Miguel Gonzalez.  Jason Hammel won't duplicate his 3.43 ERA from last year.  I don't understand how Jim Johnson gets the job done as a closer with his meager strikeout totals, but he recorded 51 saves last year.  A little regression should be expected, so trim off another handful of wins.Offensively, they will be able to score runs.  Gone is Mark Reynolds, but Chris Davis seems to have finally found a home.  Adam Jones is one of the better all-around stars that no one knows about.  Matt Wieters is one of the best slugging catchers in baseball.  Nick Markakis will never get to the superstar status that was predicted for him, but he is a solid, yet unspectacular, offensive threat.Players to watch: Adam Jones, Miguel Gonzalez, Wei-Yin Chen, Manny Machado.View the list »
One thing is for sure, this will be the last year the A.L. East will ever have to face the great Mariano Rivera.

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Gone are the days when predicting the winner of the American League East came down to the New York Yankees or the Boston Red Sox. This year, any team could finish first and any team could finish last. I thought I was being bold last year picking the Red Sox to finish fourth when everyone else had them winning at least 90 games. The Red Sox one-upped me by finishing dead last, winning only 69 games in a very forgettable season. Bobby who?

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Here are my picks for 2013:

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  • Kudos to manager Buck Showalter on a job very well done last year.  His Orioles won 93 games in 2012.  Showalter got a nice healthy contract extension out of it.  Can he work his magic again this year?  Doubt it.  The Orioles won 16 straight extra-inning games last year.  What are the odds of that happening again?  The Orioles were 29-9 in one-run games.  Let's cut nine wins off of that as a starting point.Last year I mocked their starting pitching, but they have a couple of keepers in Wei-Yen Chen and Miguel Gonzalez.  Jason Hammel won't duplicate his 3.43 ERA from last year.  I don't understand how Jim Johnson gets the job done as a closer with his meager strikeout totals, but he recorded 51 saves last year.  A little regression should be expected, so trim off another handful of wins.Offensively, they will be able to score runs.  Gone is Mark Reynolds, but Chris Davis seems to have finally found a home.  Adam Jones is one of the better all-around stars that no one knows about.  Matt Wieters is one of the best slugging catchers in baseball.  Nick Markakis will never get to the superstar status that was predicted for him, but he is a solid, yet unspectacular, offensive threat.Players to watch: Adam Jones, Miguel Gonzalez, Wei-Yin Chen, Manny Machado.
  • This is an old team with no depth and, seemingly, no plan.The Yankees have been ravaged with injuries and the season hasn't even begun.  Mark Teixeira, Curtis Granderson, Alex Rodriguez are expected to miss significant time.  Derek Jeter, recovering from a broken ankle suffered in the postseason last year, may not be fully recovered enough to play the field on Opening Day.  The Opening Day lineup may see Kevin Youkilis, Dan Johnson, Travis Hafner, Juan Rivera, Chris Stewart, and Eduardo Nunez in it. Does that lineup intimidate you?43-year-old Mariano Rivera, coming off right knee surgery which cost him all of last season, will be pitching the last year of his Hall of Fame career.  Is it safe to say he won't be the same Mariano Rivera we have been accustomed to seeing?  And what if he gets hurt again?  Last year, manager Joe Girardi had Rafael Soriano and even David Robertson to fall back on.  Soriano is gone to Washington, and Robertson has struggled when asked to fill in as a closer.  There is no one behind Robertson that can be trusted, either.The lack of a bullpen will put added stress on the starting rotation.  The top three are... wait for it... old.  CC Sabathia may only be 32 years old, but he has logged so many innings in his career he might as well be 40.  Andy Pettitte is 40.  Hideki Kuroda is 38.As injuries mount for this team, and players begin showing their age, this could be a long, long season for the Bronx Senior Citizens.Person to watch: Steve Donohue, the Yankees head trainer.
  • I'm relying on John Farrell for this prediction.  I am counting on him to get Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, and John Lackey turned around.  I'm also banking on the fact that the Red Sox followed my blue print almost to a tee on how to revamp their team.  I called for the signings of Mike Napoli, Shane Victorino, Stephen Drew, and Koji Uehara.  Ben Cherington obliged-- I always knew he read my stuff.  Cherington also added Jonny Gomes, Ryan Dempster, and Joel Hanrahan without consulting me.The biggest problem, though, in my opinion was the re-signing of David Ortiz. Ortiz is still recovering from an Achilles injury suffered last July.  That didn't matter to the Red Sox.  They signed the 37-year-old DH to a two-year, $26 million contract in the offseason.  Now it looks like he will be out at least for the first couple of weeks of the season.  I'm thinking it will be much longer than that.Without Ortiz's presence, it leaves a huge void in the heart of the lineup.  Gomes, Napoli, and Will Middlebrooks will be the only legitimate power threats.  Middlebrooks is coming off a broken wrist and Napoli has degenerative hips.The pitching should be much better this year.  Lester has looked real sharp this spring.  Lackey has lost a lot of weight and looks to be in the best shape of his life.  The bullpen is solid, but not as great as some may believe.  I am not confident that Hanrahan will be effective in Boston.  The Sox have many other options, however, in Bailey, Uehara, Junichi Tazawa, and maybe even Daniel Bard in case Hanrahan pulls a Gagne.Look for the offense to struggle to consistently score runs, but the pitching should be much better.  If they get anything out of Ortiz this season, their win total could rise to near 90.  2014 looks far more promising for Boston.Players to watch: Jackie Bradley Jr., Will Middlebrooks, Allen Webster, Rubby De La Rosa.
  • How can you not love this team?  OK, maybe I should ask someone from Tampa seeing as how they continue to choose not to go to home games.Workhorse James Shields is gone to Kansas City, but the Rays always seem to have good, young arms at the ready.  This has always been a team built on pitching.  Scoring runs is secondary and needs to be manufactured.  The Rays have never been known for their sluggers, and probably never will.  Sluggers cost money, after all.  Hello, James Loney!As long as Joe Maddon is their manager, I will pencil this team in for 80 wins. Give him a little bit of talent, and I give his team 90 wins.Players to watch: Wil Myers, Desmond Jennings, Jake McGee
  • I might have been a year early on my prediction of 90 wins for this team.  I picked John Farrell's crew to win 91 games last year.  They won 73.  In my defense, they suffered more than their fair share of injuries.  Jose Bautista, Brett Lawrie, Sergio Santos, and almost their entire starting rotation spent significant time on the sidelines.  The 2013 Blue Jays barely resemble the 2012 version.  They retained some of the best pieces of the 2012 offense- Jose Bautista, Brett Lawrie, Edwin Encarnacion- and enhanced it with Jose Reyes, Melky Cabrera, and Emilio Bonifacio.The starting rotation will have an entirely new top three with reigning N.L. Cy Young Award winner R.A. Dickey to go along with Josh Johnson, and Mark Buehrle.  Brandon Morrow has the potential to be even better than any of those guys if he can put together a full season.  Buehrle will be a bust.  Dickey will drop off, but how much?  You can count on Johnson missing at least five starts, and he wasn't terribly effective last year when healthy.The Blue Jays Achilles' heel has always been their bullpen.  One just has to look at recent closers Sergio Santos, Francisco Cordero, Kevin Gregg, Frank Francisco, Jon Rauch, and B.J. Ryan.  That's just since 2009.  Will Casey Janssen's name be added to that list of closer disappointments?Offensively, this team will score a lot of runs by a variety of methods.  Reyes and Bonifacio could both steal 50-plus bases.  Bautista and Encarnacion could both hit 40-plus home runs.  Red Sox manager John Farrell may regret having left Toronto.Player to watch: Anthony Gose.
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, Rhode Island Sports Examiner

Tony Branco has been a life-long Rhode Island resident and a passionate sports fan since the early 1980's. He has seen the Rick Pitino-led Providence College Friars go to the Final Four in 1987. He has seen the URI Rams make Cinderella runs to the Sweet Sixteen in 1988 and the Elite Eight in...

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