Despite both GOP candidates, in recent Rasmussen polls, projecting victories over Democrat Kendrick Meek in the November 2010 election, one thing could keep that from being a reality; the GOP base becoming over-concerned with how "conservative" our conservative officials are.
Kendrick Meek receives an estimated 34 and 31 percent of the total vote against Crist and Marco Rubio, respectively, however, the divisiveness of the Florida GOP could make this scenario difficult to imagine. Marco Rubio, backed by such Conservative figures as former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, former Senate Majority Leader Dick Armey, Karl Rove, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush (who has not officially endorsed yet) and most of Florida's "tea-partiers" in the Florida Legislature.
Charlie Crist, on the other hand, is backed by the type of allegedly moderate Republicans the increasingly-right-leaning GOP seems to want to distance itself from: Former Bush-official and Senator Mel Martinez (who vacated the seat being run for), Senator Mitch McConnell, Senator John McCain, Senator John Cornyn, and many other Republicans who, in theory, could lend Crist some legitimacy as the "Conservative" that he needs to be to crush Rubio.
Meek is running a quiet, but solid campaign, and isn't facing any major challengers in the Democratic primary, but has been a vocal opponent of Crist's "shenanigans" regarding the Stimulus funds and the adverse effects of the refusal.
With the State's Democrats supporting Meek, the question comes down to this: Will Rubio's supporters stand behind Crist if he is nominated, or will Florida see a repeat of the NY-23 special election, where a third-party candidate suddenly became viable?
More complex is the other question surrounding this election: Will moderate Democrats support Rubio as they have supported Crist in the past?
In 2008, it was reported that there were 600,000 more registered Democrats in Florida than Republicans, and though Barack Obama only commanded about 100,000 more votes than John McCain, the likelihood that the Democrats who were McCain voters would support the "more-Conservative-than-thou" Marco Rubio is very low.
That said, the schism in the GOP over this election is a lot deeper than that of the Democrats during the 2008 Primary, when the DNC worried that Hillary Clinton supporters might jump ship if Obama was nominated; this isn't merely preference, in fact, Marco Rubio would have Republicans believe he really is more Conservative, and thus, of a different strata of Conservatism than Crist when, in reality, their platforms only differ on climate change (Rubio denies it's existence), and potentially, the need for Stimulus funds in Florida.
Neither Rubio's, nor Crist's website broach the issue of Healthcare (the most recent measure of how Conservative one is), but for all of Rubio's "rah-rah Second Amendment" talk, Crist's appointed place holder, Senator George LeMieux's speech where he stated flatly, "I'm pro-choice, pro-gun...." really says something about the comparative politics of the GOP at this point; Republican voters are being duped into forcing the election of Democrat Kendrick Meek, at the hands of the Florida GOP.
Whether or not Florida has become less, or more, liberal isn't the issue precisely because of this schism: Just like in the still undecided election in New York's 23rd district, an endorsement for a "real Conservative" in lieu of one for the Republican candidate will split the vote.
The Florida elections are different, however, because of the simple fact that NY-23 has, historically, been Conservative, so the election came down to the Conservative Party and Republican Party candidates, with the Democrat pushing through because of the schism, though unlikely to win.
In Florida, Meek enjoys the support of more than 30 percent of the State, and if Rubio is nominated, will certainly enjoy more (Rubio has the same "Palin-factor" that will alienate moderate Republicans who would not support him if he defeats Crist much like how they moved away from McCain).
Presently, Crist still enjoys a relatively large margin over Rubio, based on an Oct. 20 Rasmussen poll, but Rubio has been catching up, and this "Palin-factor" could easily work in reverse and alienate far-right Republicans if Rubio is defeated in a close primary.
With Jeb Bush endorsing Rubio over his former cabinet member, the chances of Bush stepping in to unify the Florida Republicans is unlikely, and may serve the purpose of preserving moderate appeal to Rubio, if all else fails.
Comments
The Senate is so messed up and confused for a number of reasons which they themselves cannot accept. For one, most of them come from the school of thought where the corporate lobbyist them how to proceed.
The second cognitive problem is that many came from the affirmative action schools where they really got by because the business office needed to make their federal quota. This group also depends on what their corporate lobbyist tells them to do.
The third and final problem is that there are actually a few really good, decent, and ethical senators yet because of the first two groups they cannot properly proceed.
Come November 2nd, 2010 I will be on the Florida ballot for the United States Senator Election. I am the Independent One and I will not owe anything to any corporate lobbyist. I’m going to be an old fashioned American and actually put the best interest of the American people first. See ya! George Anthony Lovenguth (Jorge).
The Senate is so messed up and confused for a number of reasons which they themselves cannot accept. For one, most of them come from the school of thought where the corporate lobbyist tell them how to proceed.
The second cognitive problem is that many came from the affirmative action schools where they really got by because the business office needed to make their federal quota. This group also depends on what their corporate lobbyist tells them to do.
The third and final problem is that there are actually a few really good, decent, and ethical senators yet because of the first two groups they cannot properly proceed.
Come November 2nd, 2010 I will be on the Florida ballot for the United States Senator Election. I am the Independent One and I will not owe anything to any corporate lobbyist. I’m going to be an old fashioned American and actually put the best interest of the American people first. Tea Party anyone? George Anthony Lovenguth (Jorge).
We can no longer afford to have career politicians in Washington. What we really is regular citizens that will do what is necessary and follow the Constitution. Rubio, Crist and Meek are all the same. They do not want you to have the freedom provided by the Constitution. They do not want to free you from the need of the federal government.
You will not hear about the other candidates running in the media but if you went to the division of elections website you can see.
I am Alexander Snitker. I am running for the US Senate as a Libertarian Candidate. I will END THE FEDERAL RESERVE and vote to return this country to a Non-interventionist Foreign Policy. Along with this I will make sure that The Fair Tax is passed, we get a balanced budget and establish term limits for congress. I do not hear any of these candidates taking a stand on all of these issues.
www.snitker2010.com
This is a naive or ignorant analysis of this Senate race. WISHFUL thinking too!In NY 23, Doug Hoffman was unknown til 6 weeks before the race,& was a 3rd party candidate who has never held office. Marco Rubio is an articulate intelligent lawyer, an 8 year Rep. legislator and one of the youngest Speakers of the Florida House. Gov Crist. ran for governor in 2006 as a "Ronald Reagan Republican" but has governed like an Arnold Scwartzennegar liberal.
Rubio and Crist are very far apart contraire to this column. Crist socialized the Homeowners insurance industry in FL and put the FL taxpoayers at serious risk, Crist expanded gambling more than anyone in FL history, even circumventing the legislature and was slapped down by the FL Supreme Court for overreaching. Crist has promoted for years Global Warming Summits & Cap and trade mandates, & are already harming the economy. Crist is not pro-life, appt Dems to the FL Supreme courts and others. Oct. Rasmussen has Rubio beating Meek by 13 pts.
The point of the analysis wasn't Crist's perceived liberalism, but the split of the GOP vote, given Crist's popularity, and the disapproval he's facing from Rubio and his supporters; That is, with a few exceptions, exactly what happened in NY-23, and is not only plausible, but a likely scenario, given the preponderance of "Tea Parties" and the number of Republican officials endorsing third party candidates like Doug Hoffman.
No one denies Rubio's credentials (he's actually a great guy, and is qualified, more so than others), but mathematically, this type of divisiveness doesn't put Rubio on top; the Rasmussen poll you refer to demonstrates if the race were between Rubio and Meek, not Rubio and Meek, if Crist's supporters are "too liberal" to align themselves with Rubio, to put the poll in a more realistic context; the poll, by itself, represents the possible outcome if the election were held in October.
You said:
"The point of the analysis wasn't Crist's perceived liberalism, but the split of the GOP vote, given Crist's popularity, and the disapproval he's facing from Rubio and his supporters; That is, with a few exceptions, exactly what happened in NY-23,"
OK and...
This is a closed primary in Florida next August (with a low turn out),
that was an open general election in NY 23.
Marco Rubio will win this seat. When Meek and Rubio engage in a debate, it is over. Moderate Republicans or Dems will support the man they believe can get the job done.
Our nation is in serious economic trouble. Florida needs a true leader to send to Washington, this race isn't about liberal vs conseravtive.
Marco is a great American. He has the vision and understands the solutions required for the problems facing our country.
Rubio is a candidate of incredible talent and substance, & voters already are understanding that fact, which is why he is surging and will win this race.
Meek-less! My last vote for Meek was just that, my last. Meek is no Senator.
It's too bad that this struggle between Rubio and Crist is being argued as "who is more conservative." I think that's a disservice to Rubio and ignores the pandering, poll watching ways of Charlie Crist. I also think Crist has more skeletons in the closet that we have yet to see.
Your article contains an outlandish scenario that has no basis in reality - that of a 3 way split. Other arguments appear disjointed and your research is appallingly lacking. While Jeb Bush will undoubtedly endorse Rubio late in the race, he hasn't yet (as a proper reading of the link will confirm).
You are correct about the Jeb Bush endorsement, and it has been noted.
However, I should've clarified, as I did not intend to portray a three-way race, as what I meant was that either Crist or Rubio (depending on who is nominated) would alienate a portion of other's base to the point where the Republican candidate might not have the requisite support for electability.
Though the situation was slightly different, NY-23 was an example of this, where the far-right support forced the Republican candidate to concession, given the Conservative Party's candidate's recent popularity.
Rubio will not run as a third party candidate if he loses the nomination, so this is unlikely, but worthy of conjecture given his popularity and the threat he's posing to Crist in a race that, when it began, he was sure he'd win.
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