Kansas Democrats likely to face tough 2010

As promised, Rep. Dennis Moore joined the majority of his party Saturday and voted “yes” on the House Democrats health care reform bill.

This was a very risky move for Moore. While he has not faced a strong challenge for his Congressional seat in a while, Moore’s district is in no way a Democratic stronghold. Johnson County has not supported a Democratic presidential candidate since Woodrow Wilson in 1916.

It is unclear, though, if the health care reform vote will affect Moore in the long run. Not much will be determined until the Senate votes on the bill and a viable Republican opponent joins the race.

Joe Aistrup, former head of the Kansas State University Political Science Department, said it is likely a rejuvenated Republican Party will field a strong candidate to challenge Moore in 2010.

“Health care is just one of several issues (i.e. the“liberal agenda”) pursued by Obama and the Democrats,” he said. “It will be the sum total of this agenda that will motivate challengers and help them amass a large campaign war chest, thus being more likely to give Moore a run for his money.”

Moore is not the only concern for the Kansas Democratic Party in 2010. The Democratic governor of Kansas, Mark Parkinson is not running for reelection, leaving the door wide open for Sen. Sam Brownback. The current Senator is almost a sure shot for the governorship, barring any major scandals.

The race to replace Brownback could be just as certain for the Republicans. Reps. Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt will battle for the Republican ticket – the winner will likely win convincingly against a lesser-known Democrat.

Moran’s and Tiahrt’s districts in western Kansas and Southern Kansas respectively are solidly conservative and will likely vote in a Republicans, no matter who the Democrats run in those districts.

The Democrats may want to devote much of their resources to the 2nd Congressional race between Lynn Jenkins and most likely state Sen. Laura Kelly, D-Topeka. The district has been a swinging door of lawmakers as of late, and freshman Rep. Jenkins has made a lot of noise in her short time on Capitol Hill.

While she has introduced several bills and amendments this year, Jenkins has also produced several gaffes, including her “great white hope” comment. Democrats will not let her forget those comments and will likely be ready for a long, heated battle for the congressional seat.