David Kay, former UN chief inspector of the International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA), contrasts expectations with results on Iraq and Iran.
As sanctions on Iran rise, so does Iranian rhetoric. Sanctions aim to force Iran to submit to inspections. However, Mr. Kay finds inspection largely ineffective. Inspection cannot prevent a country from developing nuclear weapons, especially if the country is big, determined, and capable, like Iran.
Inspectors would need access to all resources with which Iran could develop nuclear weapons and delivery methods. Iran would have to fully declare its nuclear components, uranium enrichment, plutonium activities, and missile testing, production, and deployment. Iran does not cooperate, it obstructs.
Iran hides its nuclear activities and foreign and domestic support networks. It denies IAEA interviews with technical staff. It will not disclose what it did with N. Korea and Pakistan, which spread nuclear technology.
Iran now has learned how to handle every aspect of nuclear weapons development, including IAEA inspection. IAEA lacks sufficient staff. Most of the countries from which such a staff could be drawn either would not be trusted by Iran or could not be trusted by IAEA.
The staff does not get backed up by UN officials. For example, in the 1980s, inspectors were suspicious of Iraq’s nuclear program, but their leaders ignored them. After the 1991 Gulf War, the IAEA leaders initially rejected inspection reports of massive Iraqi violations. Then IAEA leaders called Iran in compliance with the treaty. When the 20 years of Iranian secrecy were revealed, the UN withheld authority to confront the government. The violators feel immune, and inspectors feel useless (Wall St. J., 7/17/10, A11).
Mr. Kay describes the real world. In the real world, things do not work as the UN Charter states, countries are not truthful, and rogues plan violations. It does not take a court case to prove what already is known and must be acted on. The stakes are too high for decent countries to be naïve about this.
Comments
Are you sure the man was a former Chief IAEA Inspector? Please check the fact.
tijani: I accept the Wall St. Journal's designation, thought his formal title might be different, for I remember when he was in the news and his staff expressed frustrations with Iraq.
Really poorly written story. How many, if any, of these statements are from Kay, rather than the author? Quote and attribute, rather than editorialize.
I will attribute more, but the only editorializing I did was after I cited the source, as is my custom.
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