The Obama administration referred to unnamed U.S. inspectors who estimate that Iran now would need 18 more months to produce nuclear weapons.
The estimate takes into account outdated equipment and major problems at Iran’s Qom facility. U.S. inspectors report a 20% drop in the number of operating centrifuges in Natanz. The New York Times reports a general Western belief that Iran cannot produce a weapon covertly.
The import of the estimate is that sanctions now have a chance to work. On the other hand, three rounds of sanctions have failed. The U.S. is wary of harsh sanctions that would turn the anti-regime demonstrations in Iran into anti-U.S. demonstrations. But Iranians are not supporters of the U.S. now.
U.S. estimates have proved over-optimistic. Israeli estimates are more pessimistic. Israeli officials believe that Iran is almost at the point where no sanctions could prevent its development of nuclear weapons (Yechiel Spira, yeshivaworld.com via Winston Mideast Report and Analysis, 1/5).
The new estimate reminds Mr. Winston of the infamous one that on its face was phony but generated sufficient headlines to discourage Pres. Bush from taking action at the end of his tenure. The State Dept. and CIA officials who produced that estimate never were held accountable for possibly undermining U.S. national security. Winston surmises that the new estimate is President Obama’s attempt to stall controversial action until the mid-term Congressional elections have passed. But it also may stall action until Iran has bombs. Then Iran could dictate terms to the Arab world. Iran would be far along the path to unifying the Muslim world behind its drive for jihad and global dominance.
Winston lacks faith in Obama’s reliance upon sanctions. Sanctions have proved too mild to work (1/5).
Considering that sanctions are asked of Iran’s suppliers, who are not particularly friend to the U.S., the failure of sanctions was not surprising before. The U.S. inability to realize this is surprising now. Under those conditions, sanctions are a pretext for inaction.
A summer issue of Foreign Affairs explained that Iran has neutralized much of the U.S. naval capability in its region. We know that Iran can bombard U.S. bases in the region. We also know that Iran has hidden much of its nuclear network and hardened parts of it. One should not consider a military strike a simple, swift action.
(For an earlier assessment of what the U.S. is up to, on Iran, click here )
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