AP Photo/Rajanish Kakade
The President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology has issued its report on the Swine Flu pandemic in the United States. Along with some recommendations for the government, and especially the Centers for Disease Control, it contained their estimate of the human cost of this illness.
Predicting the course of a pandemic is not an easy task. Nor, is it necessarily an accurate one. Here are the numbers that this panel sees as possible:
- Deaths due to pandemic Swine Flu - 30,000 - 90,000, concentrated among children and young adults.
- 300,000 patients requiring intensive care in hospitals
- 1.8 million patients hospitalized
- 60 - 120 million people experiencing Swine Flu symptoms
- 30 to 50% of the population infected overall
The numbers hospitalized and the numbers requiring ICU beds is of concern to the Council. The report points out the potential to exhaust the resources of hospitals in a hard hit region.
The Council points out that the pandemic may surge in September, when schools reopen, and the vaccine is not expected to be available until October. As one of its recommendations, the Council suggests that the pharmaceutical companies begin packaging the vaccine as it becomes available rather than waiting for the run to be completed.
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