Indianapolis Colts, regular-season primer, Vol. 5: versus Tennessee Titans at LP Field in Nashville

Indianapolis Colts WR Reggie Wayne (Michael Conroy/AP Photo)

Indy Football Report Editor John Oehser breaks down the Week 5 NFL matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans, which will be played at LP Field in Nashville, Tenn., Sunday at 8:20 p.m. . . .

THE VIBE . . .

The storyline is obvious and it's the most important element of the game -- the opportunity Indianapolis (4-0) has to all-but eliminate the defending AFC South champion Titans (0-4) from division contention. Not only that, the Titans -- while very talented and very capable of a long winning streak -- would have a very difficult time even making the playoffs from an 0-5 start. The Colts are saying the right things along these lines this week. Players and coaches have called Tenenssee the best 0-4 team they ever have seen and Colts Head Coach Jim Caldwell this week said they are very much the same team that went 13-3 last season and led the AFC South from the beginning of the season to the end. "All the way across the board, all we see is a great team with talent, good offense and defense, and then also a real solid kicking game," Caldwell said. "We know as we look at them on film, that they’re a team that you better get ready to play because they’re tough and hardnosed, and can certainly create havoc."

THE BIG CONCERN . . .

The presence of Titans RB Chris Johnson. He's big. He's fast. And he's really, really good. Colts rookie CB Jerraud Powers this week called him the best running back in the NFL, and just because Powers is inexperienced doesn't mean he's incorrect. The Colts' defense has played well against the run this season, but they haven't played a back anywhere near Johnson's caliber.

WILDCAT WATCH . . .

The Colts spent the week preparing for the possibility of facing the Wildcat formation, and with reason: they allowed the Miami Dolphins 107 yards rushing on 12 carries from the formation in Week 2 and Tennessee has the personnel to run the scheme. Colts DT Ed Johnson said this week the Colts are prepared for the scheme, and he said the Titans' version of the Wildcat is a bit more finesse than that of Miami. Caldwell said the key for the defense is to read and react and play fast whereas against Miami too often the Colts' defense was fooled by misdirection and slow to react.

THIS WEEK'S LIST . . .

This isn't something the Colts ever, ever would say, but a victory Sunday will make it very, very difficult -- and perhaps impossible -- for the Titans to catch the Colts this season. That's the obvious part of the equation. The not-so-obvious part is that it's going to be tough for anyone in the South to catch Indianapolis if it wins Sunday. The Colts historically are a very difficult team to catch with a lead because they rarely lose to inferior teams. This season, most teams on the schedule appear to be falling into that category. Don't forget, too, that Indianapolis is a team that routinely runs off long winning streaks to start the season, starting 5-0 in 2003, 13-0 in 2005, 9-0 in 2006 and 7-0 in 2007. So, this week's list is the rest of the Colts' schedule after Tennessee and just where that first loss might be looming:

October 25 | @ St. Louis Rams (0-4): First loss here? Not likely.

November 1 | SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (3-1): The 49ers are improved, but enough to beat Indianapolis at Lucas Oil Stadium?

November 8 | HOUSTON TEXANS (2-2): The Texans never have beaten the Colts in Indianapolis. Hard to imagine this being the year if for no other reason than Houston almost certainly will have a very, very tough time ever stopping the Colts' offense.

November 15 | NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (3-1): There's a perception that the Colts have a very difficult time with the Patriots, but really that is more perception and less reality. The Colts have won four of the last five meetings between the teams and even in 2007 -- the year the Patriots were powerful and unbeaten in the regular season -- Indianapolis outplayed the Patriots for 55 minutes in a 24-20 loss.

November 22 | @ Baltimore Ravens (3-1): On paper, this may be the toughest matchup: a road game against an improved team. Paper doesn't take into account that the Colts absolutely have dominated this matchup since 2002. Manning has made a powerful, intellegent defense look overmatched at times, and that usually doesn't happen to the Ravens.

November 29 | @ Houston Texans (2-2): This may be a tougher matchup than Baltimore. Houston had the Colts beaten last season in Houston until a once-in-a-lifetime rally in the final five minutes. Eventually, this version of the Texans will mature enough to beat the Colts. Is this the year?

December 6 | TENNESSEE TITANS (0-4): This December matchup may be decided this weekend, because if the Titans can't win Sunday, they may be too far out of it by December to care enough to compete.

December 13 | DENVER BRONCOS (4-0): The Broncos are unbeaten after four games, but have yet to make a lot of people nationally believe. Hard to imagine the Broncos coming to Indy and winning.

December 17 | @ Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2): This matchup has started to look a bit more intriguing in recent weeks as the Jaguars have put up a couple of AFC South victories. It's hard to imagine this team being in it in December, but even if they're not, as was the case last season in December, they almost always play the Colts tough.

December 27 | NEW YORK JETS (3-1): Once again, the schedule seems favorable. Will this be a tough game? Almost certainly. Do the Colts get a break by having the game against what likely will be a contending team in Lucas Oil Stadium? Again, absolutely.

January 3 | @ Buffalo Bills (1-3): More often than not, the regular-season finale has meant nothing to the Colts in terms of the postseason in recent seasons. Either way, the Bills don't yet look like a team likely to be playing meaningful games in December, either.

A FEW THOUGHTS . . .

. . . on the above list.

1) Where are the likely losses? Not many. Worst case, you figure maybe at Baltimore or at Houston. At Jacksonville could be tough and home against the Jets will be tricky. Home against San Francisco will be, too, and of course, the Patriots are never easy. The point? It's not hard at all to imagine the Colts running this season-opening winning streak to eight before that tough New England-Baltimore stretch in mid-November.

2) What's the likely record? Again, let's go worst case. Against the above schedule, it's hard to imagine anything worse than 12-4 -- and that's with a potential meaningless-pull-the-starters-early loss in the regular-season finale.

3) Couldn't set up better. Not to belabor the point, but aside from Baltimore on the road, this schedule sets up as well as possible, with nearly all of the so-called "difficult" games at home. The reality is before the season the toughest stretch was the three-road-games-in-four-weeks run that includes games at Miami, Arizona and Tennessee. The Colts have won two of those games and the Titans are struggling.

4) Unpredictable. Tony Dungy, the Colts' head coach from 2002-2008, used to say he never worried much about the schedule before the season because the one great truth in the NFL was you could rarely predict who would be good and who wouldn't. That's true this season of the Colts' schedule. Who predicted Tennessee 0-4 and Miami 1-3? Who predicted Denver 4-0 and the Jets 1-3.

WHY THE COLTS CAN WIN . . .

Because in many senses, they are playing as well early in the season as they have played in some time. Except for the Wildcat troubles in South Florida in Week 2, the defense has played solidy all season, and quarterback Peyton Manning as hard as it is to believe may be playing the best he has played at any time in his 12 seasons. The Colts' defensive ends, Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney, are the NFL's best pass rushers, and the addition of DT Ed Johnson and the development of DT Antonio Johnson are helping Indianapolis stop the run better than it did last season. Also, the Titans are struggling. The Colts have said throughout the week the Titans are a very, very good 0-4 team, but something is wrong in Tennessee and injuries to the secondary on a week in which they are playing Manning hardly can be considered good timing.

WHY THE TITANS CAN WIN . . .

Because this is a talented team that is capable of running off many consecutive victories. The defense hasn't changed personnel significantly since last season except for losing DT Albert Haynesworth as a free agent, and the unit was one of the NFL's best last season. The other reason? The presence of RB Chris Johnson. The Colts have stuffed the run against their last two opponents, but those two opponents were Arizona and Seattle. The Cardinals didn't try to run and the Seahawks are just struggling. Johnson is one of the NFL's best and will be the Colts' toughest running test to date.

MATCHUPS TO WATCH . . .

1) Colts DEs Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney versus Titans OTs David Stewart and Michael Roos. Roos and Stewart are each solid players who received contract extensions in 2008, but Mathis and Freeney are playing as well or better than any end tandem in the NFL. Mathis has 4.5 sacks and had three sacks and two forced fumbles last week and Freeney -- a four-time Pro Bowl selection -- has five sacks and is playing as well as at any time in his career. The duo has been helped by the solid play of the Indianapolis interior, which has helped created pass-rushing opportunities.

2) Colts WRs Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon versus Titans CBs Nick Harper and Cortland Finnegan. This was a major area of concern last week for the Titans, with Finnegan missing a loss to the Jaguars with a hamstring and Harper leaving the game with a rib injury. Finnegan says he'll play this week and Harper returned to practice Thursday after missing Wednesday. Whatever the health of the Titans' cornerbacks, the matchup figures to be difficult for Tennessee. Wayne is playing at his typical high level and Garcon has come up with big plays each of the last three weeks. If the Titans can't generate a solid pass rush, Colts QB Peyton Manning could continue the run of success that has produced a franchise-record four consecutive 300-yard games.

3) Colts LT Tony Ugoh/Dan Federkeil vs. Titans RE Kyle Vanden Bosch. Vanden Bosch is a high-motor guy the Colts respect a great deal, and he could have a favorable matchup Sunday. Starting left tackle Charlie Johnson sustained a knee injury against the Seahawks last week and missed practice Wednesday and Thursday. The Colts have yet to announce who would start in his place, but Ugoh started the last two seasons before being made a backup this past offseason.

QUOTABLE . . .

I tell you, in the times that we always play the Titans, I couldn’t tell you what our records were any of the past years and I couldn’t tell you what theirs were. Basically, what I’m saying by that is, in this game it’s two good teams that know each other very well. It’s always been a ton of close ball games. That’s where it is at this point, too. I kind of throw records out the window when it comes to playing these division games. You watch the film and you see their defense making plays. I see a couple plays going against them. One play here or there that goes the other way that may result in a win or loss column, but I still see a very good football team.

--- Colts QB Peyton Manning

THE LAST WORD . . .

Whatever the teams say, make no mistake: This is a pivotal game in a way few predicted before the season. The Colts can all-but eliminate the Titans from AFC South contention, and that's important because the Titans are good enough that if they stay close they're always a threat. Before the season, many believed these two teams would be the top two teams in the division, and although the matchup seems to favor the Colts, playing on the road against a desperate team makes this perhaps the toughest game of the first half of the season for Indianapolis.

*** THE TOP FIVE SEASONS OF COLTS QB PEYTON MANNING. HERE

*** COFFEE WITH THE COLTS: INDY FOOTBALL REPORT EDITOR JOHN OEHSER'S NEXT-DAY LOOK AT COLTS-SEAHAWKS HERE.

*** COLTS QB PEYTON MANNING CALLS 4-0 RECORD A GOOD START: INDY FOOTBALL REPORT EDITOR JOHN OEHSER'S GAME STORY. HERE

*** COLTS QB PEYTON MANNING ON THE CONTRIBUTIONS OF FORMER COLTS RB EDGERRIN JAMES HERE

*** WR PIERRE GARCON AMONG FIVE KEY EARLY-SEASON DEVELOPMENTS FOR 3-0 INDIANAPOLIS COLTS HERE ***

*** WHAT DO THE COLTS HAVE TO DO TO WIN THE AFC SOUTH? READ IFR EDITOR JOHN OEHSER'S FIVE KEYS HERE

*** REVIEWING COLTS PRESIDENT BILL POLIAN'S WEEKLY RADIO SHOW HERE. PART ONE

*** REVIEWING COLTS PRESIDENT BILL POLIAN'S WEEKLY RADIO SHOW HERE. PART TWO

DWIGHT FREENEY NEWS

* Colts quiet on status of DE Dwight Freeney

* DE Dwight Freeney out 2-to-3 weeks

* Freeney not ready to accept 2-to-3 week diagnosis