The Chargers have won three straight behind QB Philip Rivers and currently hold the 6-seed in the AFC (AP Photo/Julie Jacobson)
Any way you look at it, the Texans will find themselves in a log jam for the AFC wild card race coming out of their bye week.
The Texans are in a group of five AFC teams where only one game separates team #6 from team #10.
The Texans are 5-4, one-half game behind the 5-3 (and current #6 seed) Chargers, and one-half game ahead of the 4-4 Jags, Jets and Ravens.
The Happy Fan Line
Six AFC teams will make the playoffs which makes it easy to draw 'the line' this week. The Texans loss at Indy combined with the Chargers win over the Giants dropped the Texans to seventh in the AFC and below the line.
After this weekend the Texans are guaranteed to be tied with either the Jets or Jags, will most likely be tied with the Ravens, and will hopefully be tied with the Chargers.
Yes, the race is getting tight and that's why every game is extremely important coming out if the break - not to mention the Texans first three games after bye week are against the Titans, Colts, and Jags. That's why I wrote somewhere before that the Texans must go at least 2-1 in their next three to remain legitimate in the wild card race.
Here's how the AFC currently stacks up:
[8-0] Indianapolis
[6-2] Denver, Cincinnati, New England, Pittsburgh
[5-3] San Diego (the happy fan line)
[5-4] Houston
[4-4] NY Jets, Jacksonville, Baltimore,
[3-5] Miami, Buffalo
[2-6] Oakland, Tennessee
[1-7] Cleveland, Kansas City
And here's what Texans fans should hope for this weekend to help our team's chances in the AFC:
- Jags over the Jets: Both teams have head to head tiebreaker advantage over the Texans but the Texans have another shot at the Jags. It's hard to root for a division rival but in the bigger AFC picture, to see the Jets a game behind the Texans is the better option.
- Tampa Bay over Miami: Yeah, I know... the chances are slim.
- Steelers over the Bengals: The Texans have head to head tiebreaker advantage over the Bengals. Bring them back to us and let the Steelers go on to win the AFCN.
- Buffalo over Tennessee: Yeah, I know ... but it would be nice to give Bud another case of the blues before he brings his team to Reliant.
- Redskins over Denver: Yeah, I know ... (there's a lot of those this week). The Skins are terrible but the Broncos are starting to look like the team we thought they might be.
- Kansas City over Oakland: If a tree fell in the forest and no one heard it ... It's a shame because this used to be such a great rivallry.
- Philadelphia over San Diego: I may pull a Pedro Cerrano and light some incense and candles for this one. Texans fans should be pulling hard for the Eagles. But the Chargers are hot and they smell Bronco blood in the water.
- New England over Indy: This is likely a matchup of two division winners so it really doesn't matter in the context of a wild card race. The Texans are unlikely to catch either of these teams.
- Browns over Ravens: I almost couldn't type that since it seems so far fetched. If I have any incense and candles left over from the Eagles-Chargers game, I may try it again on Monday night.
Comments
another far fetched occurrence --- the Texans catching either the Bengals or the Steelers. The Bengals have 4 total layups on their schedule -- Oak, KC, Clev and Det. The Steelers, while looking awesome of late to boot, still have 3 gimmies in KC, Oak and Clev. This may be a dumb prediction, but I wonder if Cincy has any chance of playing for a bye in the playoffs? If the Colts beat NE watch out.
Same could be said for SD and Denver too. I don't recall SD's schedule, but I know that Denver has 4 more layups too --- KC (twice!), Oak and Washington. I'm sure hoping that the Chiefs improve.
Ok, my last comment got me depressed after I realized that saying that those 4 teams would end up with better records than us would prevent us from getting a WC birth. Denver still has KC, Cle, Tenn and Wash. Not quite as easy and frankly many of their other games look tough. Texans have StL and Seattle and Tenn (and also Jax) although only 1 of those sounds like a layup to me. Other 3 are winnable (especially Sea) but definitely not layups. Looks like we got our work cut out for us.
It's going to be exciting as long as the Texans don't implode.
I have run the scenarios over and over and it would appear the Texans have a legit shot because all of the teams in the log jam have tough games ahead.
The NFL tiebreaker rules are very favorable to the Texans in alot of these scenarios.
With that being said, every senario that I play out in my head requires that the Pats come to Houston with nothing to play for and the Texans squeeking in on the last game of the year.
Ok, my last comment got me depressed after I realized that saying that those 4 teams would end up with better records than us would prevent us from getting a WC birth. Denver still has KC, Cle, Tenn and Wash. Not quite as easy and frankly many of their other games look tough. Texans have StL and Seattle and Tenn (and also Jax) although only 1 of those sounds like a layup to me. Other 3 are winnable (especially Sea) but definitely not layups. Looks like we got our work cut out for us.
Screw the happy fan line. I just want to root for a team that beats the crap out of the other team.
These guys could easily be 8 and 1, but they're not, because their mentality is we're really confident instead of we're the windshield and you're the bug.
That's how Indianapolis, and New England, and Pittsburgh think. That's the difference between running 1 play because you're only 3 feet from 7 points, and insuring those extra plays, and taking extra time off the clock and because the quarterback your defense has been stuffing has a reputation.
If the Texans win the next 4 games they're probably in like Flynn, because they're like 9 and 4 and 500 against the AFC South.
The next 4 games makes the happy fan line insignificant.
Indy doesn't have an easy schedule. It's about the AFC South.
To hell with the other teams, if we could just consistently beat the teams in our division, that would be 6 wins already, and we could, now, because we have the talent now. So what's
@Guess, if the Texans win their next three games they will be 4-2 in the division. As far as 'to hell with the other teams' the Texans were 4-2 in the division in 2004 but finished 7-9. Those losses to San Diego, Denver, NY Jets and Cleveland really did matter.
Got something to say?
Examiner.com is looking for writers, photographers, and videographers to join the fastest growing group of local insiders. If you are interested in growing your online rep apply to be an Examiner today!