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If there's any player that deserves a taste of playoff football, it's #80
Forgive me but if I see another article proclaiming the Texans are playoff bound, I think I'm going to have to organize a heavy duty intervention.
I'm talking about news filters that would make Ahmanidejad proud.
Don't get me wrong. Being in the discussion is much better than coming off 2-14, but this cloned lemming parade of 'team to watch' and 'biggest surprise' articles has gotten very old.
Hit Google News using "houston texans" and "playoffs" as your search criteria and you will see what I mean.
Better yet, don't do it, and listen to what I have to say.
Until they prove otherwise, the Texans are still the team I saw in December. That's the team that beat a 13-1 Titans team one week, then turned around and lost to a 3-11 Oakland team the following week, and had to win five of its last six to reach .500 for the second consecutive season.
Most pundits predicting a Texans breakthrough playoff season point to their 5-1 finish but I'm not buying it. It's fools gold until they; a) really start to turn around a 4-24 all-time record against Indianapolis and Tennessee, b) improve on a 4-12 road record over the past two seasons, and c) win some meaningful games in December.
So why do the masses seem to be convinced that the Texans of 2009 are going to be better than the Texans of 2008? That's a rhetorical question of course since the masses aren't in a position to know.
Are Brian Cushing and Connor Barwin going to be difference makers in their rookie seasons? Will Antonio Smith's Super Bowl swagger still be there in November? Is Matt Schaub going to stay healthy for at least 12 games for the first time in his career? Will a suspect secondary hold together behind Frank Bush's 'more aggressive' front seven? Will Gary Kubiak win more than one coach's challenge all year?
No one really knows the answers to those questions, but if the answer is 'no' to more than a few, there's really no reason to believe the Texans will be any better this year than they were the past two seasons.
So in the spirit of Newton's Third, here are five reasons why the Texans won't make the playoffs in 2009:
1. Injuries
Let's get the obvious out of the way first. Yes, this applies to any team but the Texans have been hurt by it in the past and until they can overcome key injuries and still play at a high level, this remains at the forefront of limiting factors for a successful Texans season. The Texans can't afford to lose Matt Schaub (or Steve Slaton, Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels, Duane Brown or Eric Winston for that matter) for more than a third of a season and expect to be a serious playoff contender. Same goes for Mario Williams and DeMeco Ryans.
2. Defense slow to gel
Everyone seems to be foaming at the mouth because of Frank Bush's new "aggressive" defense that has yet to play a down. Talk is cheap. If the Texans defense fails to come together quickly (like during Week 1), and take advantage of a favorable early season schedule, then we'll be right back in 'fight for .500' mode quicker than you can say 'tickets for sale - face value.' Buddy Ryan's Oilers started off 1-4 in 1993 but got it together in time to finish 12-4, but this defense isn't the '93 Oilers. Implicit in all this is overall improvement of the defense from its lowly statistical standing of past seasons.
3. Players buying into the hype
I'm pretty sure the players are above all the fluff that's being written and said about them, but I remember last year at a remote asking Eric Winston how they were going to guard against a letdown against the Raiders after beating the Titans. He just kind of laughed at me. The coaches need some negative locker room material to counter all this playoff talk. How about this article? This team is a slip-up against the Jets from being the same old Texans. I think most players get it. I think the goal of 'nothing less than the playoffs' is the right thing. They just need to keep their heads straight about it all.
4. The return of the great offensive mistake machine
The Texans were 3rd in the NFL in yards gained last year with 382 yards per game, and 5th in the league in time of possession at over 32 minutes per game, but they were also 4th worst in the league in turnovers with a minus 10 margin, and only 17th in the league in scoring despite the yards gained and time of possession. The Texans offense was also 7th worst in the league in touchdowns scored inside the red zone with a paltry 45.9% of their trips inside the opponents 20 resulting in TDs. Does that make them the #3 offense in the league? Not by my standards.
5. A slow start
This relates to #2 but deserves its own mention. The Texans open the season with three of their first four at home where they are 12-4 over the past two seasons. A 4-3 record heading into November is the absolute low end of acceptability while a 2-2 record in November would be reason to celebrate (given a 4-3 record or better heading into the month). Winning streaks breed confidence among players and it's important for the Texans to get on the right side of the win-loss ledger early. The Texans have yet to walk into an opponent's stadium with a legitimate sense of swagger - ever.
Comments
Interesting. So as a sports writer for the Texan's you are stating the Texan's will or will not make the playoffs? Everyone Loves AJ
Your glass is half-empty there.
He's just playing Devil's Advocate here. Of course Alan wants the Texans to do well, and he offers ways they can make it this year. However, he is pointing out that there is a lot of potential for problems that could keep them from making it to the playoffs just like last year.
When they walked out of Charlotte 2-0 after being down 14-0...they had SWAGGER !!!
Good Luck Houston from your sister city Nashville. We will be pulling for you.....
Sory bout' that team moving thing, in hind site you might go easier on old Bud seeing that the trend for cities to build facilities to keep teams has only expanded. Think your old mayor may have been more at fault. Either way, Nashville has your back.
Texans fans seem to forget how little their win over the Titans last year meant. The Titans had come off of a mammoth win over Pittsburgh, clinched the division, and taken the first seed in the playoffs. There was more to lose by showing up to win and failing, than there was to gain from a 14th win. Beat Tennessee in week 2, and then you can talk about your playoff chances.
Hey FleaMarketHustler,
You wont find many Texans fans willing to trade franchises and stadiums with the Titans thats for damn sure.
Thoughts:
1. Yes, injuries are a part of the game and the Texans have their share of them. One thing to note is that the Texans are using a new training staff in place this season. The last training staff had a few blunders (Dom Davis not being able to return, Andre Johnson missing 8 games two season ago to name a few). I am of the mindset that the training staff had more to do with the lack of players being able to suit up on Sunday, but that's just me thinkin out loud.
- Lets remember that week 17 against Chicago was the first gameplan from Frank Bush's scheme. We held up against Matt Forte, which is an impressive feat.
- A slow start...against Pittsburgh in week 1, an Ike induced bye week in week 2 and Tenneessee in week 3 and a Sage Rosenfels gaffe in week 5. Show me the team that can weather that storm (pun intended).
- Everything else is spot on. Kudos to you...
ET
Hey RlyRlyBigMan
You seem to forget that even coming off that win against Pitsburgh, the Titans were still playing for homefield advantage throughout the playoffs when they came into our house... Had they beat us then they would have had it clinched so i would say they had something to play for...
I'm glad to hear somebody else is not quite ready to put the Texans deep into the playoffs of the 2009 NFL season. We've not yet had a winning season, but many Texans' fans have
at the very least assured everyone that will happen in 2009 and this Fall will then be topped off by atleast one post-season game.
I say lets get a look-see at the team in TC, see what the FAs & rookies look like in a couple preseason games before wee get too far ahead of ourselves ?
RlyRlyBigMan,
Actually, the Texans win against the Titans was the week BEFORE the Steelers game. The Titans could of wrapped up the AFC by beating the Texans, but instead had to go to Heinz field and try to pull off the win.
Yes, the did pull off the win (and stomped on some towels to boot) but there were many a Titans fans losing sleep over the proposition of beating the Steelers in their backyard with the division on the line...
More thoughts from the self proclaimed PRESIDENT and CEO of TEXANS NATION:
- The 5-1 record is pretty, but lets really nail it down by looking at week 17 in 2007 and week 17 in 2008:
Both of them were wins that brought this team to the .500 mark, yes. However, that's where the comparison ends, in my opinion.
2007, the Texans were playing the Jacksonville Jags, a team that had already punched their ticket into the playoffs. Quin Gray was the starting QB and the game was mostly against Jacksonville's backups. Nonetheless, the Texans needed two KRs from Andre Davis to win...they allowed the Jags 2nd team to hang up 28 points. True fools gold.
2008? Well, the Bears needed a W to get into the playoffs. They had a hot rookie RB who embodied the bane of our run D: Power runner who can do it all. The Texans fall down early and with nothing to play for...staged the comeback and set off the chain that got Philly into the playoffs. Now THAT's gold if you ask me. =)
Yes, the Texans have become the darlings of the media, well, except for Mike Lombardi. He doesn't even know our players' names. Still, the Texans could just as easily have been forgotten this off-season like all the others, but they're not. Why is that? Well, writers have been told by GM's, coaches, scouts, and players that we finally have some real talent on this team. So what are we gonna do with that talent? We're gonna win, unless those 5 things that Alan mentioned happen. Then it's 8-8 all over again.
Your gonna eat hose fancy words and get a big Texans' EXPLOSION right in your face.
The Texans will make the playoffs this year because their schedule is the weakest yet and the other teams in the AFC South are weaker than they have been in recent years. This along with another year of experience and an improving defense should get the job done. Go Texans!
It's all about Rex Grossman baby
Injuries are a part of any team?! You can point at Schaub, but, he's played more games the last two years than Tom Brady has. With cheap shots by Haynesworth and Allen would injure most QB's.
The word is "jell" not "gel". Houston's defense better not turn into a gelatinous substance. They're bad enough as it is.
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