Cedric Benson against the Texans generous run defense appears to be a major mismatch (AP Photo/Nick Wass)
I received some nice feedback on this entry I posted prior to Week 5 so I thought I'd bring it back once more since it could be the last time this season we can say the words 'Texans' and 'AFC race' in the same sentence.
The point of that entry was to start looking at the AFC race from a conference perspective where you can more readily see the teams that are well positioned for playoff runs, those on the bubble, and those about to disappear.
Six AFC teams will make the playoffs and there are currently seven teams above the highly subjective 'happy fan line' which I drew below the teams with winning records.
Of course, I doubt fans in New England and Pittsburgh who are used to total domination aren't all that enamored with their team's 3-2 records. Jets fans are also probably gripping a bit after their meltdown in Miami.
But not to worry, all three of those teams should be 4-2 after this week.
The Texans are tied for the 9th best record in the AFC at 2-3 and desperately need a win to save their rapidly diminishing wild card hopes. The Texans have already lost to the Jets and Jags, and a loss to Cincy would drop them to 11th of 16 in the AFC and allow 2-3 Miami to jump them in the AFC standings.
Here's how the AFC currently stacks up:
[5-0] Indianapolis, Denver
[4-1] Cincinnati
[3-2] Pittsburgh, New England, NY Jets, Baltimore (the happy fan line)
[2-2] San Diego
[2-3] Jacksonville, Houston, Miami
[1-4] Buffalo, Oakland, Cleveland
[0-5] Kansas City, Tennessee
You can see by this rack and stack how the Texans missed a golden opportunity at Arizona last week. They could have jumped ahead of Jacksonville in the standings and been up there with the Steelers, Pats, Jets and Ravens. But no.
Here's what Texans fans should hope for this weekend in addition to a win over the Bengals:
- The Rams stun the Jags
- The Broncos continue their improbable run by taking out the Chargers
- The Vikings remaining undefeated by taking down the Ravens
- The Titans (yes it's tough for me to type this) get off the schneid by somehow beating the Pats
Unfortunately I see no way for the Steelers to lose to the Browns or the Jets to lose to Buffalo, but obviously both of those unlikely outcomes would also help the Texans given they win on Sunday.
If the Texans lose to the Bengals, it's time to stick a meat thermometer in 'em. Five more minutes on the other side, aka a loss to the 49ers, and they'll be well done - by week seven.
Win at Cincy, and we get to talk about the possibility of beating the 49ers at home and Buffalo on the road to go to a place they've never been - a 5-3 record after eight games.
Remember the song Dreamer by Supertramp? The lyrics seem appropriate as I close:
Dreamer, you know you are a dreamer
Well can you put your hands in your head, oh no!
I said dreamer, you're nothing but a dreamer
Well can you put your hands in your head, oh no!
I said far out, - what a day, a year, a laugh it is!
You know, - well you know you had it comin to you,
Now theres not a lot I can do
Dreamer, you stupid little dreamer;
So now you put your head in your hands, oh no!
I said far out, - what a day, a year, a laugh it is!
You know, - well you know you had it comin to you,
Now theres not a lot I can do.
We'll work it out someday
Note to readers: I'll be away from the laptop for a few days. See you next Tuesday or Wednesday.
Comments
Great article! I would love to see something like this as long as the Texans have 6 or fewer losses. As far as dreaming is concerned, it would be nice for all the other teams in the AFC South to have a meltdown, while the Texans win the rest of their games.
I am already getting ready for the next season to begin. The Texans will go 7-9 unless something changes.
Looks like another 8-8 season, however I could easily see 6-10. I wonder what it feels like to be Pittsburgh, New England or Philly fan where the playoffs are expected?
@Gary
If we end up 6-10, you can be a fan of whatever team you want next year.
@Bob,
What is your prediction?
@Gary
I predict that if we aren't above the 'Happy Fan Line' by the end of the season, you will be below the 'Happy Coach Line' and on your way back to Texas A&M.
Bob,
I really meant to say 10-6 in my previous post. :)
Bob,
I really meant to say 10-6 in my previous post. :)
@Gary
You can say 10-6 and playoffs all you want, but until it happens, you're on the hook. Now get out there and get us some wins!
I dunno, what's the story on AJ ? He appears to be AWOL ?
This story is dated 10/15, and our best effort of the season (10/18 vs Bengals) has come and gone with nothing by AJ as we
go into an important home-game vs SF this Sunday ?
Hope he's OK ?
Yeah, I hope he's ok, and just hungover from the celebration of the win over the Bengals.
In the meantime, everyone should go to nfl.com and vote Brian Cushing as the rookie of the week! He had a great game against the Bengals!
www.nfl.com/partner?partnerType=rookies
Not sure what happened to AJ, but happy fan line now is:
[6-0] Denver
[5-0] Indianapolis
[4-2] New England, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh
[3-3] NY Jets, Baltimore, Jacksonville, Houston (the happy fan line)
[2-3] San Diego, Miami
[2-4] Buffalo, Oakland
[1-5] Kansas City, Cleveland
[0-6] Tennessee
@HT Fan, I'm going to draw the happy fan line between the 4-2 and 3-3 teams this week.
@Don and Chris B., thanks for the concern. I've been out of town since Saturday with no reliable internet other than on my cell phone. I made mention of it at the end of the article above. I saw highlights of the Texans win over the Bengals Sunday afternoon and finally got to watch the replay of the game after returning home last night.
nothing wrong with a little dreaming
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