Five elements of a terrorist attack

Jihadist in Middle East

Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano has stated in numerous briefings and public statements that the common citizenry of the country is an “untapped resource” in the fight against terrorism. For years the anti-terrorism intelligence and law enforcement communities have been voicing a desire to tap information possessed by average citizens who have observed terrorism related activities but didn’t have an adequate means of reporting the observations and in many cases didn’t recognize the activities. But, now the DHS appears to be finally listening to the suggestion that American Citizens are a great asset in gaining information on terrorist cells operating inside the United States.

Since the 9/11 attacks the various agencies in the law enforcement and intelligence gathering communities have put methods and mechanisms in place that facilitates citizen reporting of suspicious activity. The result was less than what had been hoped for as citizens jammed hotlines and exchange servers with reports of activities and circumstances of absolutely no intelligence or law enforcement relevance. It didn’t take long for hotline receipt stations and the agencies themselves to start treating reports from citizens as worthless and time consuming. Many agents could be heard complaining about the total waste of time the complaints and reports were. However, the problem wasn’t in the existence or even the use of the reporting hotlines.

The problem lay in the fact that the intelligence and law enforcement communities had great difficulty in educating the masses on what they were looking for. Many agencies didn’t trust the public enough to share information that was all but unclassified regarding the behaviors and processes involved in terrorist activities. They felt that if they publicized the methodologies and processes of terrorist planning and attacks that they would “accidentally create domestic terrorists.” It was, and remains, an unjustified fear. Other agencies, especially those governed by the Department of Defense, lost touch with the intent of classifying information. In these offices everything that came in was instantly classified and locked away. Information remained solely within the agency itself and literally went nowhere.

In order for the common citizenry to become a viable intelligence and law enforcement information resource two items must be engaged successfully. The first is the availability and functionality of a reporting and information routing mechanism. This part has been done well but doesn’t produce much of anything useful because of the lacking and quite important second item. That item is the education of the public on the elements of a terrorist attack, terrorist organizations, and even elements of terrorist thought and ideology. To this day, the educating of the public is severely lacking and met with skepticism, fear, and reluctance from the various agencies involved in the process of combating terrorism.

So, what exactly is it that serves to change the average American citizen into a “viable intelligence and law enforcement asset?” First, it is essential that every American understand that terrorists and terrorist organizations are not spontaneous in their actions. The word simply doesn’t exist in their vocabulary and means of thinking. Every terrorist attack is very well planned, coordinated, and executed with extreme discipline.

The second thing to know is that terrorists are not crazy or stupid. In fact, they are just the opposite. Many terrorists have advanced academic degrees and are highly intelligent. They are the type of people few would ever suspect of harboring a desire and plan to cause massive damage and death. Many people, who were neighbors or friends of terrorists, often say that the individual displayed absolutely no inclination towards violence at all. They would never have suspected that they were living next door to a person who would blow-up a building or fly a plane into a building. Intellect is a commodity in vast volume when it comes to terrorists and their various organizational manifestations. They are not by any means stupid.

One must also consider the sanity and emotional stability of terrorists. Many commentators and people like to say that all terrorists are crazy. This comes more from an effort to generate a self-defined justification for an act that cannot otherwise be fully understood by the observer than from any genuine realization about the mental health of a terrorist. It is easier to dismiss terrorists as “sick and unable to know better” than it is to recognize the fact that they are quite sane and quite stable before and during their deadly acts against humanity. It goes back to the old saying that “it isn’t the loud ones you have to worry about. It’s the quiet ones that will kill you.” Mentally ill and emotionally disturbed people tend to explode in fury and are quite spontaneous in their behavior. For instance, the rampant shooter that walks into a mall and opens fire on people is an example of violence from insanity. But, the carefully planned, prepared for, and executed car bombing of a VIP’s convoy is far from a spontaneous act of a mad-man. So, it is important to keep in mind that the “terrorist candidate” is usually very sane and very stable.

Now you know what to look for, right? Not exactly, there is one more thing that everyone should be aware of. Contrary to popular belief, a terrorist attack starts long before the actually deadly event. There are five elements to every terrorist attack. These elements are (1) Target Identification, (2) Intelligence Gathering & Planning, (3) Logistics & Training, (4) Rehearsals or “Dry Runs,” and (5) the physical manifestation of the attack itself. These are the five elements of a terrorist attack and they are universal. Virtually every terrorist attack that has and will take place follows these elements in the presented order. Three of these elements can be detected if the observer knows what he/she is looking at and has a means of reporting the observation to the appropriate authority.

The first element, “Target Selection,” is an exact mathematical science for terrorist planners and organizational leaders. The target isn’t randomly selected but is instead a product of a carefully study and comparative observation. For instance, terrorist organizations seek several outcomes from their actions. These outcomes range from simple media attention to political/military disruption. So, the target would have to meet criteria relative to the desired outcome. Areas to consider are the impact on the populous, generation of fear and vulnerability, societal or cultural significance, symbolism, and level of chaos generated by attacking a particular person, place, or thing. Yes, a potential target is a noun but a noun of significance to the terrorists’ cause and the effect on the target populace and/or government. This element is not one of the three that can be easily recognized or detected by common everyday people. The probability of detecting this, even by seasoned intelligence gatherers, is quite slim, indeed.

The second element of a terrorist attack is very much vulnerable to detection. But, it is often very well compartmentalized in order to reduce the obviousness of the effort. This step involves the gathering of intelligence, surveillance of the target, and observation of vulnerabilities. The type of information gathered and the methods of observation used are dependent on what the target is. If the target is a building then the intelligence gatherers may seek blue prints, layout plans, entrance points, and security measure and/or procedures. They may want to acquire structural engineering figures or material strength ratings. If the target is a person they will want to know residence and work addresses, travel routes, daily routines, health records, and security codes. In order to gather this information the terrorists will have to interact with certain people. People like public librarians, archivists, medical professionals, architects, security guards, etc. These interactions leave them vulnerable to detection especially when they are not a part of or fully familiar with the cultural environment in which they are operating.

Third, the terrorists will begin to formulate a general plan and the maneuvering of personnel, money and materials. This is communication dependent and involves a plethora of shipments, flights, and fund transfers. Bankers, lawyers, airline booking agents, business licensure agencies, property rental managers, immigration officials, and even trucking companies can become instant sensors of unusual activity. The enemy operatives will need to be placed in the area, given covers, provided with funding, provided transportation, and provided shelter. Not to mention the explosive materials or other dangerous items to be used in the final and fifth step. This is also a detectible element of a terrorist attack. Again, it is a matter knowing what to look for and being able to report it to the appropriate people in a timely manner.

The fourth element is the final step before the massive damage of property and loss of life occurs. It is also the last of the civilian observed and detectible steps of a terrorist attack. It is in this step that the operatives selected to carry out the attack will begin to execute rehearsals. They are commonly known as “Dry Runs.” These are especially detectible in attacks that include car bombings. An example of a dry run would be for the terrorists to drive up to the entrance gate of a facility but then turn around suddenly before approaching the guard shack. This may happen several times on different days and at different times of days. The vehicles may change but the occupants are almost always the same. Perimeter security probing is another form of rehearsal and last minute intelligence gathering for the terrorists. There is but one thing left to do, execute the actual attack itself.

The fifth element is the one step we all hope to prevent from happening. It is here that the devastating loss of life and destruction to property occur. This step can be detected but in most cases the detection occurs only seconds before the blast, shooting, or kidnapping. There is very little time to react when the fifth and final step of an attack is executed. Like 9/11, there is usually no warning or detection at all until it is too late. Citizens become viable assets in detecting criminal and terrorist activity in reporting “viable and tangible information.” Thus, knowing the five elements of a terrorist attack is important to reducing useless and false reports and enhancing and increasing useful information reports from average Americans via special hotline services offered and maintained by the U.S. Government.