CDC releases new swine flu H1N1 numbers: should we be worrying less or more this week?

The CDC just released new swine flu numbers on Friday, December 18th, for the previous week. The question is: should we be worrying less or more? Are things getting better or worse?

 Let's take a look at the numbers...

1. Outpatient visits for "influenza-like" illness. Visits were listed as 2.6% vs. the national baseline of 2.3%. No information is presented about how the baseline is established or what it's based on. Still, two questions remain. What is "influenza-like" illness and how is the baseline established and what does it mean in real terms? Because tests were not done to confirm whether these "influenza-like" illnesses were actually swine flu or something else, we have no way of knowing if that .3% is important.  If we take a hypothetical total, e.g., 10,000 visits, .3% (.003) means only 30 total additional outpatient visits nationwide, which isn't a lot.
2. Specimens from people complaining of "influenza-like illness." Remember, not everyone who complains of the flu is tested for it. Why the tests aren't done, is not revealed, but of 5,640 specimen tested, only 6.9% were positive, that is, although more than 5,000 people complained of the flu, only 6.9% actually had the flu.
3. Confirmed influenza-associated deaths. From August 30 through December 12th this year, the CDC reported 1, 567 laboratory confirmed influenza-associated deaths. For some unknown reason, influenza deaths are lumped together with pneumonia-caused deaths, making it very difficult to know which is which. But, we do know that influenza-associated deaths means there could be an underlying condition that is the primary cause of death. We also know that in many cases, cause of death is listed incorrectly about 40% of the time. So that's about 40% of the time, cause of death may not be due to the flu at all.
4. Pediatric influenza-associated deaths. One-third of these children had co-existing bacterial infections which may have been the cause of death. Of the 212 deaths, less than half of those (99) were even tested to see if they had a bacterial infection present in addition to the viral flu infection
5. 2009 season compared to last year. If we scroll down and take look at the graph provided by CDC, called Penumonia and Influenza Mortality Surveillance, we can see that in 2008 the rates for dying from influenza and/or pneumonia were much higher in 2008 than this year. In both cases, deaths from influenza-related causes peaked in the 20th week, which has already passed.(We're in week 49). 

photo: morguefile