Voters in Arlington, VA on Nov. 3, 2009
Last Tuesday’s election in Virginia has been reported by some as a vote of no confidence in the Obama administration. Maybe it was – but a closer look indicates that seven of the nine incumbents who lost were caught flat footed on gun rights.
Generally in the United States, “there is a large advantage to incumbency in the elections to the lower chamber at the state level.” Arguably then the most noteworthy election outcome in a lower state legislative house is when a significant number of incumbent legislators lose.
According to analysis by the Washington Post’s Derek Kravitz,
“[t]he defeat of several incumbents Tuesday marked a change from recent elections. During the past 14 years, nearly all of the state's delegates have been reelected . . . This year's 90 percent reelection rate was the lowest since 1995. An incumbent hadn't lost in Northern Virginia since 2005 [but on] Tuesday, Republicans gained six seats in the House, winning eight and losing two with one race [apparently Democratic incumbent Del. Bobby Mathieson (D-Virginia Beach) who trailed Republican Ron Villanueva on election night by 16 votes] undecided.”
Counting Mathieson, nine incumbent members of Virginia's lower legislative body, the House of Delegates, lost their bid for re-election. The losing Delegates hailed from all corners of Virginia, from urbanized Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads, to rural Lynchburg and Southwest Virginia. Eight losers were Democrats, and one was a Republican.
As you can see from the chart below, five of the losing incumbents were NRA F rated and hailed from the anti-gun wing of the House of Delegates which was outvoted 2-1 this year on HB 1035, a bill to repeal Virginia’s ban on concealed carry in restaurants serving alcohol. Only nine other states have such a ban.
| Incumbent Delegate | Vote on SB 1035 | NRA Rating | Winning Challenger | NRA Rating | NRA Endorsement | VCDL Endorsement |
| Poison (D) | Nay | F | Greason (R) | A | Greason | Greason |
| Caputo (D) | Nay | F | Lemunion (R) | C | ||
| Vanderhye (D) | Nay | F | Comstock (R) | A | ||
| Mathieson (D) | Nay | F | Villanueva (R) | A- | Villanueva | |
| Hamilton (R) | Nay | C | Abbot (D) | ? | ||
| Nichols (D) | Yea | B | Anderson (R) | A | Anderson | |
| Valentine (D) | Yea | B | Garrett (R) | A | Garrett | |
| Bowling (D) | Yea | B | Morefield (R) | A | Bowling | |
| Bouchard (D) | Yea | A | Stolle (R) | A |
Of the remaining losing incumbents, Valentine, Nichols, and Bowling went into the race disadvantaged by an NRA B rating compared to their opponents' A ratings, with Valentine's and Nichols' opponents garnering official NRA or VCDL endorsements, respectively. It should be noted though that VCDL endorsed incumbent Democratic Delegate Bowling based on his long record of pro-gun votes in the General Assembly.
The final incumbent to lose, Virginia Beach's Delegate Bouchard, did so in a re-match against his previous election opponent, Chris Stolle, whose brother, Senator Ken Stolle, was simultaneously running for Sheriff of Virginia Beach. Ken Stolle led the fight in the Senate last year against banning private firearm sales at gun shows and so it is possible that Chris Stolle benefited from the coat tails of pro-gun Ken Stolle's campaign in the same city.
Philip Van Cleave, President of the Virginia Citizens Defense League, Inc. feels that "the results show that this election was open season on anti-gun incumbents. The antis have lost at least five reliable anti-gun votes in the already pro-gun House of Delegates, and their perennial bill to restrict private firearm sales at gun shows has now assumed room temperature and is already developing rigor mortis."
Looking to the future, Van Cleave said that "we will be tracking gun votes carefully as both the House and Senate will be up for election again in just two years."
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Comments
Regarding the Bowling endorsement, it was my understanding that VCDL only bases their endorsements on the VCDL questionnaire - something that they made a point of reminding folks with a follow-up email from the VCDL President explaining how they made the 2009 endorsement decisions. There were a number of incumbants with excellent voting records on guns but were not endorsed by VCDL because those incumbants did not return their questionnaire.
NRA and the Virginia Shooting Sports Association (VSSA) on the otherhand did not endorse Dan Bowling because of his voting record-specifically his vote in 2008 against killing HB 745, a bill to require background checks on private sales at gun shows. When the bill came up in the the Militia, Police and Public Safety Committee, there was a motion to "Pass by Indefinately" (PBI) and Bowling voted against the motion. That vote cost him his NRA "A" rating and the vote factored into VSSA's decision not to endorse him for re-election.
I'm honestly hoping we can now get a comprehensive castle doctrine passed here in VA. Crank up the presses and get some letters ready to send off to our new governor. Maybe we'll be successful - this time.
VCDL endorsement has become a pretty solid indicator of candidate success in Virginia. Earley and Kilgore failed to treat VCDL seriously and it cost them the Governor's race. McDonnell seems to have learned, even if he's still blathering over the "gun show loophole" nonsense.
David, I think VCDL takes several factors into their endorsement process. However the ball can't get rolling unless the candidate turns in the survey.
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