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Monta Ellis: Big-minute guy
The Warriors can't be done making moves.
If they are finished, then something’s got to give. Either coach Don Nelson is fibbing about playing the youngsters or there are going to be a couple unhappy campers on board the good ship Warrior in 2008-09.
If Nelson keeps his word and gives playing time to second-year players Marco Belinelli and Brandan Wright and rookie Anthony Randolph then there’s bound to be an uncomfortable minutes issue.
Take note Kelenna Azubuike and Al Harrington.
It’s math, really. Any way you cut it, Monta Ellis, Corey Maggette and Stephen Jackson are going to get big minutes. Ellis played 38 minutes per game last season and his minutes aren’t going to go down now that he’s the franchise player.
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Marcus Williams
Jackson played 39 minutes per game last season and as long as he’s a Warrior he’ll be around that number. Can you imagine his disposition if he’s not?
Maggette averaged 36 minutes a game last year for the L.A. Clippers, and he certainly didn’t sign with the Warriors to take less of a role or less playing time.
It isn’t clear where Azubuike, who averaged 21 minutes per game last season, will get his minutes.
Marcus Williams is the only true point guard on the roster so he’s going to have to see action at the one. And it’s too optimistic to think he’s going to get Ellis’ leftover dozen minutes and nothing else.
In other words, Williams is going to gobble up all the backup point guard minutes and maybe some leftover minutes at two.
But let’s move to the frontcourt, where Andris Biedrins and Ronny Turiaf should get all the playing time at center.
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Where are Al's minutes?
That leaves the power forward position, where Nelson has guaranteed playing time and opportunity to Wright. Twenty minutes per night about defines playing time and opportunity.
Randolph, one of the most intriguing first-round selections in years, has to be worked in somewhere. If he plays small forward, he’ll cut into Azubuike’s already limited minutes, and if he plays power forward, it’s Harrington who is squeezed.
Seems as though one of three things has to happen:
--The Warriors are going to make another move _ a likely 2-for-1; or
--The Warriors aren’t really going to play their young players as much as they are saying; or
--The Warriors are going to play their young players, meaning Harrington (who will make more than $9 million this season) and Azubuike (whom you just re-signed for more than $3 million per season) are going to be high-priced end-of-rotation players.
Comments
Nellie's rotation was minuscule last season. To the point where his starters were exhausted by the time the all-star break came around. (And instead of resting them, he held "mini camp" to get Webber "ready" ... but that's another story)
If Nellie can get enough confidence in the bench this time around, you could see the starters' minutes decrease while the bench plays more. Everyone runs harder and plays that crazy scramble defense we saw in 06/07. If guys run their tails off and get subbed out quickly, there's plenty of minutes to go around.
Matt, do you honestly think any of these rookie/soph guys have done anything to guarantee playing time? Bellinelli wont get a sniff. Wright will, but he'll get the hook if he screws up. Randolph will get an opportunity to succeed, but anyone that thinks Don Nelson will keep playing young guys that are missing defensive rotations, and screwing up offensive plays, has clearly never watched Don Nelson coach. Unless Randolph is the second coming of Magic Johnson, I'm afraid you are looking at plenty of Al Harrington, and plenty of Buke out there this season. This one's gonna be ugly.
(A quick note) The grey background behind your posts makes the text quite difficult to read.
Its a rotation. They're going to keep running, and no one should play more than 35. Marcus is here precisely to ensure that Ellis DOES NOT play more - not because he isn't good, but because he will need rest.
Hi Matt
Enjoy your work both here and on the telecasts. Did you, by chance, read TK's blog concerning the possibility (or not) of the Warriors getting Josh Smith? Woulden't the contracts work if they did a 2 for 1 of J Smooth and Harrington and another player? What would you think of a move like that? I'm hoping it happens. Another long, athletic, fast player for the system, plus he's an all world weak side shotblocker!
I've been thinking the same think as I obsessively make depth charts instead of counting sheep to go to sleep. I kinda think Belli will not quite make it, Morrow appeared to be a better spot-up shooter. Wright I'm not too sure about either.
We were really lucky with injuries last year, can't expect that two years in a row. It may turn out we need all those guys. But your math is your math, or THE math as Karl Rove would say... :)
Thanks again, Matt, for another insightful post. I've been thinking this exact thing for a few weeks now. The Ws are completely overloaded at the shooting guard and big forward (I won't say Power Forward because, well, ours aren't).
As it stands Monta, SJax, Maggs (yes, I've been paying attention), Williams, Turiaf and Biedrins are the only ones that are guaranteed major minutes. Harrington, Azubuike, Wright, Randolph, Belinelli, Morrow (who's game I believe is much better suited to the NBA than is Belinelli's) and Hendrix (ok, so we have 1 actual PF, which is why he will be in this battle but will spend most of his time showing off his suits with CJ Watson and Kosta Perovic) will be battling for scraps at 2, 3 and 4...and they will all be dissatisfied.
I think that at least the following 2 trades should be on the table:
- SJax + Harrington -> Miami for Shawn Marion
- Harrington + Wright + Belinelli -> Detroit for Rasheed Wallace
Either of these options would add an All-Star and would alleviate the roadblocks at both positions. Given that both of these guys are in a contract year we would definitely get quality from our acquisition immediately and could then resign him to a multi-year deal. As Harrington and Jackson have 2 years left they come off the books right when Miami and Detroit plan to make a free-agent splash with James, Anthony or Bosh.
I'd rather do either of these than try to get Josh Smith.
Personally, I'd prefer to get Wallace. He would fit our system PERFECTLY.
Good points, Matt. I got the same feeling looking at our roster, Mully can't be done.
Matt I thought like you in regards to the Warriors rotation, that there isn't enough time for everyone. But think about every single piece the Warriors have to create match up problems for the opposition, offensively and defensively.
Why would the Warriors want to rid themselves of all the mismatch problems they can create?
The Warriors noticeably ran out of steam at the end of last year. The Warriors big 3 became run down and Nellie tried furiously to find someone to produce. His pieces consisted of Pietrus (sporadic, but usually bad), Barnes (I'm going to nicely say he wasn't in his 2007 playoff run form), Buke (who was good sometimes, decent sometimes, or just not there other times), Cro (who was off and on...the injured list)....That's about it anyone else got charity minutes.
Now Nellie has many more pieces and match ups to create depending on the situation.
If he needs someone to shoot the lights out Marco and Morrow can come in and have Williams/Monta/(or even Maggs...) drive and dish out to them. No more Jax driving 3 dribbles then off his foot, he can stand out on the 3 point line and shoot too.
If the Warriors need some boards, pop in Turiaf/Hendrix with Andris. Move Maggs/Jax to 3, Jax/Buke 2, Monta/Williams 1.
Wanna go small and run the teams down? Monta/Belli/Maggs/Jax/Andris.
Need some guys to create shots that are not 3s? Monta/Maggs/Randolph/Al/Turiaf would be a nice lineup of slashers with Turiaf crashing.
We need to go big? Williams or Monta 1, Maggs or Jax or Buke 2, Randolph or Jax or Maggs or Al 3, Al or Wright or Hendrix 4, Andris or Turiaf 5....Esh did I just put out the whole rotation? But isn't that the point/beauty of the new look Warriors?
Options.
Yes its a lot but the Warriors proved to us last year they can't do it 8 men deep. Warriors NEED to be 9 or 10 deep. Sadly not every player can play at his peak every night, you know that I don't need to tell you that.
But Nellie plays guys looking for results, not problems. If a guy is off that night, sorry you gotta sit. Welcome to the NBA.
The Warriors have created a deep diverse dynamic and...daring lineup. Think like the opposition for a minute.
You're playing a team that runs and runs and runs they have size, speed, strength, and many many athletic players...Nellie has 10+ guys who can play while you field a team that rotates 8 deep and aren't in Nellie ball shape...Who would you rather be?
Lastly...what do you see as the Warriors weaknesses with the team they field now. Please try and avoid the words Star and Defense...Because my response will be Monta and 110 PPG...Thanks Matt
My guess is that Nellie won't play the young guys very much, particularly Belinelli. And I think the Warriors will be very good.
As a major NBA fan of nearly 40 years, and being a big Warriors fan with season seats I need to comment on their latest team. I think the loss of Baron will mean they won't make the playoffs this year. However, they didn't make it with him last year.
The Warriors need to make a big move to get disgruntled Josh Smith or Shawn Marion. To get one of those two (if at all possible), the Warriors will likely have to part ways with several players/draft picks/cash. There would also have to be a sign and trade component.
Josh Smith can play defense (he's one of the top shot blockers), can rebound and can run. He's still young and me thinks his rebounding numbers will improve. He also has speed and can drive to the basket or consistently hit from 15 feet and in. It would be great if Atlanta would take Harrington (the Warriors could offer to pay $9 or $10 million to pay one of the last 2 years of his contract), and Atlanta would likely want Wright or Randolph, and maybe another player like Bellinelli, Azibuke, or Williams. Or maybe Atlanta would take a 1st Round pick in the next few years to go with 2 players and cash. Atlanta would likely want Wright to be part of the deal for the possibility that he blossoms and could take the place of Smith.
My preference is to get Marion because of his experience with the run and gun Suns. As we all know, Marion can fill the lane on the break, hit 3 pointers, rebound quite well, block shots and more. He is not great at creating off the dribble, but the Warriors would not need him for that function. Miami can use a small forward, center and point guard. Chalmers may not be adequate, so Miami might want Williams to be part of a deal. Miami almost certainly would demand Randolph be included. They might also want Turiaf. Harrington would have to be included because of Marion's massive $18 million salary. If Miami could sign Marion for 3 or 4 more years at $15 or $16 million, then send him here for Harrington, Randolph, a 1st Round Pick and $10 million or some combo of the other players, a pick and cash, Mullin should jump at it.
A starting line-up of Ellis, Maggette, Jackson, Biedrins, Smith or Marion could actually make it to the second round of the playoffs, possibly deeper. But other teams with a good power forward have to be willing to make a deal and that player needs to want to come to the Bay Area. Without a star power forward who can box out and do some serious work on the boards, the Warriors are going nowhere. Wright does not have the strength to contend with Boozer, Duncan and other strong power forwards and Harrington just can't rebound.
Great insights on playing time... There are definitely not enough minutes to go around. How will Nelson play their "depth." Mullin sure did spend a lot of money on Turiaf and Azibuke (approximately $7.5 total this season) to have them play 5-15 minutes per game... I would rather have saved that money - to be used for future acquisitions that will actually see the court and play B. Wright/Hendrix more at Backup Center/Power Forward and Randolph at Backup Small Forward/Power Forward and Belinelli/Morrow at Backup Shooting Guard.
Mullin/Warriors did a bang up job on this draft. Randolph looks like the real deal and should NOT be traded. Imagine him at Power Forward or Small Forward in a few years - he has the potential to change the game! Hendrix has great potential as well.
I do agree, Nelson is lying. Azuibuike is much better all around than Bellinelli. Unless Bellinelli and do more than miss wide open jumpers this year, he will be lucky to leave the bench.
Harrington is better than Wright, at least on the offensive end. This is the Warriors, Offense gets you minutes.
I really like Azuibuke and hope the Warriors keep him. Just because Nelson said Bellinelli will be a star last year does not mean he is stupid. Azuibuke has a nice floor game and is allot better than JRich is and was off the dribble.
If the NBA ever tests for performance drugs, they should start with Azuibuke. His biceps are freakishy large. Seriously, have you seen them?
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