With the current Cap and Trade legislation pending in Congress many commentators have been presenting the argument that global temperatures have actually been cooling over the last ten (10) years and global warming is not really occurring. While I think that the Cap and Trade bill should not be passed, this argument of cooling temperatures is very misleading.
Let’s take a detailed look at the argument that temperatures are actually cooling. The temperature data from NOAA does show that the average temperature peaked in 1998 and each year since has been cooler than the 1998 peak. This does not, however, represent a cooling trend. Just take a look at the chart of the data. The moving average temperature has clearly been rising. The ‘cooling’ is simply temperatures that have not exceeded a one year spike.
The science behind global warming is very compelling. Greenhouse gases, most notably carbon dioxide, reflect heat back to the surface of the planet thereby slowly warming the planet. A lot of this warming is trapped by the oceans, which are slowly rising due to thermal expansion of the water.
The sea is a huge heat sink that averages temperature changes over the entire world. If the world was actually cooling, then sea levels should be going down. What we see is a continually rising trend. The black line on the chart from recent satellite data is very accurate.
The debate about global warming is being driven by the alarmists on one side and the deniers on the other side. The alarmists seem to want radical and immediate changes with no regard to the costs. The deniers don’t want to spend any money on remediation.
The truth is that global warming caused by man-made gases is real. It will have economic costs in the future. These costs will come from rising sea levels and local changes in climate that will cause changes in agriculture and habitat. The burning of fossil fuels also has health costs due to the release of harmful chemicals like mercury, oxides, uranium into our environment.
Global warming probably can’t be stopped, but we can mitigate the effects by reducing the amount of carbon dioxide we release into the atmosphere. It would be economically efficient to mitigate the amount of future damage by investing some amount of money now to produce more energy from clean, renewable sources. How much we should spend is a matter of debate. It is more than the zero amount the deniers want to spend and probably a lot less than the radicals want to spend.
Having a national program to build renewable energy now would be a start on solving the problem. This would allow us to create the infrastructure to build solar and wind systems on a large scale. In a few years time, we will have better scientific data to access where we stand and can then adjust the scale of our renewable energy development to meet our needs.
Frequently Asked Questions
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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If you made a chart with old NOAA data, that James Hansen had not rewritten, until 1978 and then used UAH data from then until now, you would see the same thing I have. There was global warming at the end of the 19th century and between 1920 and 1953. Then some declines but basically stable until 1998 which was a huge rise, followed by a decline back to the original levels. There was some warming in the early 21st century and now a decline of 6 C per century. Looking at NOAA or GISS temeprature graphs is foolish. They think they can tell us its warming when we have to heat our homes all year?? Do they think we haven't noticed the last two suummers have been cold? That this is the third year with a lower than normal crop yield? Is this some kind of "we won't tell them the planet is going into another Ice Age" routine? Sorry James Hansen, we are not all that dumb.
Not to worry though. GISS just rewrote the temperature data and now 2007 is the 2nd hottest year on record, just below 1998. I guess they were worried about that non moving temperature graph. This is the kind of fraud we are dealing with. James Hansen rewrites temperature data years after the fact and has been doing so for quite a while. Wait till you see that this year was one of the warmest ever.
If the temperature is cooling you might expect the sea temperature to cool but a lag might exist due to inertia.
It is interesting that evweryone seems to talk about the downside to increases in temperature there are lots of upsides it depends on where you are on the planet. If you are in New Zealand we are likely to benefit from an increase even thou there will be changes regionally that we will have to adapt to but overall our energy generation, farming and agricultural economy will be a winner. This year we have had the earliest snow for 15 years Whoops did we say warming well lets just put it down to regional variation and see what happens next year. I would be more worried about a decrease in temperature (the natural state of the planet )than an increase. Nature has a way of returning to the norm. Lets hope it is not on the downward path. What ever you believe we should not pollute the atmosphere or the planet any more than is necessary to exist.
The problem is that the oceans are not heating for some years now and no models have forseen this, expect those used by the astro/solar-physicists. The lack of sunspots is undeniably connected to a cooler climate. Shouldn´t "climate change" also mean a adaption to a cooler climate, which is much, much worse? (Crop yield for instance)
Mr. Ryan,
Where is the evidence that the warming of the late 20th century was caused by man-made CO2?
Where is the evidence that this recent period of warming - now stopped - was not caused by similar warming periods in the past such as the Medieval Warm Period or the warming during the Roman era that were due to natural causes?
Why does CO2 rise lag temperature rise in the geological record if CO2 is a driver of climate?
Why did the computer models that underpin AGW theory fail to predict the cooling of the past 8-10 year (BTW, please use satellite data, rather than the discredited and re-written surface temps).
If you can answer these questions, I'll believe in AGW.
Regards,
Keith Thompson MD
What bothers me is that the global warming models did not predict these cooler temperatures, and yet we are supposed to believe that they can predict future temperatures.
Also, a national renewable energy program will not be a start to anything, since our national emissions savings will be more than offset by emission increases in China and India. We would be taking a huge economic hit for no benefit. Doing it just to set good example is ridiculous and wasteful. That money could save many more lives invested in clean water or AIDS prevention.
The reality is renewable energies are here to stay. Over the next three or four decades our fossil fuel reserves will run out, despite what the oil and coal companies tell us. When that happens oil and coal will rise in cost. Good for you if you own an oil well or coal mine. Bad for you if you rely on it to get down the road or buy coal fired electricity.
Fossil fuel companies don't want renewables because they will make their products useless/obsolete before they've had a chance to really cash in on the rest of their reserves.
The alarmist on the other hand, they want everyone to become uber socialist. Why should one person suffer while another wallows in riches?
And I agree Eve. Record cold has been reported all over the planet and James "Homer Simpson" Hansen (NASA GISS) says June '09 was the second hottest on record behind only 1998.
What has he been smoking and where can I get some?
MrC
You are using fabricated data. The ground temperature data is not only warped by the urban bias, but is well known to have been doctored to fit a predetermined observational outcome.
Again, you are using fabricated data. No honest scientific discussion can possible happen using forged data.
GW IA ALL SNAKE OIL! FRAUDULENT INTERPRETATION OF DATA to fit an agenda.
Warming has occurred before as has cooling WITHOUT human input.
The Earth can be in one of two state. Cooling or warming.
History has shown that humans do much better in a warming climate NOT like the Little Ice age and its cooler clime.
What a crock. I guess you eat steaks to prove you are a vegetarian. Another Marxist that hopes we will give up our freedom and rights to help him realize his dream of the rebirth of Communism. I thick we will soon have room at gitmo for these frauds.
Resulting cooling doesn't disprove predicted warming? Resulting normality doesn't disprove predicted crisis?
History will laugh at this environMENTAL globull warm mongering for sure.
Nature is in charge not us. What are we ancient Greeks now?
John, I don't believe that the "10-year cooling trend" is supportable. But a cooling trend since around 2004 is easy to see if you plot the HadCRUT data.
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The chart that you present as Figure 3.6 doesn't provide an accurate picture of the HadCRUT3 data. For one thing, it is outdated (2006). Also it is a bar chart of yearly averages even though the monthly data is readily available. The blue line is a ten-year averaging which would tend to mask shorter term trends. The chart appears to
be designed to hide a short-term cooling trend.
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The Hadley Center is the source for the HadCRUT data. Google on "HadCRUT3 Data." The first link should take you to Hadley. Click on their chart to enlarge it.
I download and chart climate data for myself. If you plot the HadCRUT data, you can see the cooling trend for yourself. But it starts around 2004 rather than 1998 which makes sense. I would be happy to send you a pdf of the HadCRUT3 chart that I did recently or a direct link to the d
NOAA's own data says there has been global cooling, EVERY YEAR, since 2005.
Here, see for yourself:
ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/anomalies/annual.land_ocean.90S.90N.df_1901-2000mean.dat
Search for "4th Year of Global Cooling, NOAA Says" for an analysis of it.
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