Wise Guys NFL Football Picks, Week #17

Patriots (+8) at Texans, Over/Under 46 points
Houston needs to beat New England, plus receive help if it wants to advance to the postseason for the first time in franchise history. The Patriots still have something to play for, as New England can clinch the third seed in the AFC with a victory. Patriots have struggled on the road, winning only two games away from Foxboro. But New England is 8-2 ATS the last ten seasons in Week 17, which is relevant since the Pats usually play for very little in the final week of every season. With little or no defense I see this game going "Over" the posted total of 46.

Browns (-1½) vs. Jaguars, Over/Under 36 points
Jacksonville needs a victory plus four other teams to lose just to slide into the playoffs. They were blown out last week at New England, 35-7, marking their ninth ATS loss in the last 11 games. Jack Del Rio's team has scored ten points or less three times in the last five games.  

The Browns have now knocked off the Steelers, Chiefs, and Raiders in consecutive weeks and managed to cover six straight games, nine of the last 12 after their 0-3 ATS start for the season. Lean is towards the Browns.  

Chiefs (+11) at Broncos, Over/Under 38 points
The Broncos are trying to end a three-game skid while looking for loads of help to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2005. They blew out the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium four weeks ago, 44-13. However, Denver is an astounding 0-9 ATS since 2006 as a home favorite of at least nine points, including a Week 15 loss to Oakland as 13½-point favorite. While the Chiefs are 4-1 ATS the last five as a road 'dog, and have nothing to lose. With all the pressure on them, the Broncos Coach had to suspend star WR Brandon Marshall for this game and in doing so took a lot of heat from his players who believe you win at any cost. I'll take the 11 points with the Chiefs.  

Raiders (+10 ½) vs. Ravens, Over/Under 38.5 points
The Raiders will be the relaxed team as they try to spoil Baltimore's shot at a playoff berth. The Ravens on the other hand will be playing tight after traveling all the way across the country. The back door cover is a distinct possibility. Having said all that - the Raiders QB will be dumbfounded by the Ravens defense. The only thing that could possibily help the Raiders would be a few turnovers. I see the Ravens traveling well and doing just enough to win - hopefully by 17 points.

Seahawks (+4) vs. Titans, Over/Under 45 points
Both teams are eliminated from playoff contention and are just playing for pride. Tennessee's miracle comeback from an 0-6 hole fell short with a 42-17 loss to San Diego, dropping the Titans to 7-8 on the season. Seattle, meanwhile, has been disappointing all year with their 5-10 SU mark and are coming off three straight poor efforts, falling to the Texans, Bucs, and Packers by a combined 92 points.
Tennessee's roller-coaster season has left many people confused on who the real Titans are, but it's tough to lay points with this squad on the road in a meaningless game. Still, can you see Seattle winning? I can’t. Take the Titans  and play the Under 45 points.  

Bills-9 vs. the Colts, Over/Under 33.5 points
This is another meaningless game and you saw what happened last week when the Colts pulled all of their starters – the team fell apart. The Bills players will want to win this game just to show their fans that they can still play. The only side to consider is the Bills -9.

New Orleans Saints at the Carolina Panthers-3.5, Over/Under NL
The Panthers will be trying to impress the home crowd while the Saints will be trying to keep their players from getting hurt. If the Saints were interested in gaining back their swagger, they wouldn't have announced the fact that Drew Brees will be sitting this game out. Go against all reasoning and play the Carolina Panthers.    

Eagles+3 at Dallas, Over/Under 47.5 points
The Eagles are the better team and if they want the home field advantage as the NFC East Champion they need to put the Cowboys in their place. There should also be a ton of points in this game. The play is on the Eagles and the "Over".  

Chicago Bears-3 at Detroit, Over/Under 44.5 points
The Bears are the slightly better team and if they have any pride left they should be able to win this game.  

Pittsburgh-3 at Miami, Over/Under 47.5 points
What we do know is the Steelers will be playing with pride and Ricky Williams, Miami’s star running back, is hurt. On any other week, this game would be a no-brainer and you’d surely take the Steelers. The safest bet this week is to make a play on the Under.    

N.Y. Giants at the Minnesota Vikings-9, Over/Under 47.5 points
If the Giants have even a smidgen of pride left they will keep this game close. However, I’m not so sure they have any pride left. Since the Vikings’ starters will be resting for the playoffs, this game shouldn’t go anywhere near the posted total – the play is on the Under 47.5 points.  

Cincinnati Bengals at the New York Jets-10, Over/Under 35 points
Ten points is a lot of points to give to a good defensive team but I think the Jets have just enough firepower to pull it off. Don't look for many points as Carson Palmer will not be playing.  

San Francisco 49ers -8 at the St. Louis Rams, Over/Under NL
The 49ers defense will shut down the Rams offense. This is another no-brainer, take the 49ers less the 8 points.  

Atlanta Falcons-2 at Tampa Bay, Over/Under 41.5 points
As of late the Buccaneers have been playing well, this will be their Super Bowl. Take the Bucs at home.    

Green Bay at Arizona-3.5, Over/Under 44 points
44 points sounds low for two teams that light up the scoreboard. The play is Arizona-3.5 and on the Over 44 points.  

Redskins at the Chargers-3.5, Over/Under 39 points
No one can keep the Chargers from scoring at least four touchdowns. That means if the game is to go over the posted total all we need is two scores from the Redskins. The play here is on the Chargers and the Over.