Is it a sign of our times that last night, the Senate voted 60-40 to open debate on a health care bill and the CNN.com headline is “Michael Jackson items fetch $2 million at auction?”
I thought today would be a good day to regroup on the health care issue as the dust settles. In football terms, last night the Democrats won the toss in overtime and they are now within field goal range to win. They could get really sloppy and lose the ball and not even get a chance to kick. But the Republican defense is weak. It would take a Democratic fumble more so than a Republican interception to win this game. If the Dems line up for the kick, no way the GOP stop the field goal.
In other words, the rules were suspended and Reidcare made it to the floor without the pesky issues of committees and such and debate is open. It is my understanding that the motion did not limit debate so Reid must hold his team together—55 true “Yes” votes, 3 wavering conservative-state Democrats and 1 former Republican turncoat who is now an “Independent” and Joe “They loved me before they hated me” Lieberman. Any one of them leaving early could mean the GOP could keep the bill from getting to a vote.
How the Dems act in the next three or four weeks should determine that. First, they head home for their turkey. You can bet phones will be ringing in Arkansas and Louisiana expressing views on how to vote. They will ring in Pennsylvania as well but Bobby “Bob-Casey lite” Casey and Arlen “Not Proved” Specter (who is so irrelevant that Sestak and Toomey think they only have to beat each other) are in the bag.
The on-the-fence Dems like Mary Landrieu made it clear—they want open debate and the consideration of amendments to hold ranks. There is little chance Landrieu will vote for the bill (especially if she wants another term). The same goes for Blanche Lincoln. But the Dems don’t care if the ladies vote for the bill. They have the kicker in place (57 sure votes, 7 more than needed assuming Joe Biden would vote yes). All they need to worry about is fumbling before the kick can be attempted and giving the GOP enough votes to block a vote on the bill.
So, what we can expect are some Democratic compromises—not with Republicans but with Landrieu and Lincoln and even Ben Nelson of Nebraska. This will ensure their continue support to end debate at some point. The bill may be watered down a bit. Doesn’t really matter. They will recede to those changes when they go into conference with the House. The House bill will resemble the final bill. It will pass. No need for 60 votes at that point.
So, it is not over yet but it is close. That said, there were times when the GOP were this close when they had control in the earlier part of the decade and the GOP House and Senate could never see eye-to-eye. There could also be an uprising in Louisiana, Arkansas or Nebraska. Harry Reid is sure to read his poll numbers over the break. He may join Tom Daschle as majority leaders who lose their post because they get defeated for re-election.
As I have written many times before, I favor affordable and available health care for all. I do not favor the current bills because I don’t think a federal public option is the answer. It is simply a power grab for the federal government and the SEIU. So, I am disappointed in yesterday’s vote, right? Wrong.
I’d have been disappointed if a minority of 41 could preclude debate. As is said in the dramatization of our Declaration of Independence, in the musical “1776” nobody has ever been hurt by some healthy debate. In fact, I wish some GOP senators had extended the olive branch for debate once it was clear they could not win. Debate the bill. Try to change the bill. But leave the all or nothing politics behind.
Yesterday was just another example of how polar our politics are. This hits you in the face if you look at a red state/blue state map that is done at the voting precinct level. While Democrats own an edge in registration (and each party is well short of 50%), when you look at a map drawn to a lower level one thing hits you squarely in the face. There are no blue states (or very few). There are all red states with pockets of blue.
We are not a Democrat versus Republican country. We are not a 27 state versus 23 state country. We remain an urban versus suburban/rural country. There are pockets of blue in a sea of Republican Red. As a result, wherever we live tends to have a clear majority way of thinking and everyone around us thinks like us. Very easy to get polar in those cases.
But I am glad that debate won out yesterday because that is how our Founding Fathers would have wanted it. Remember, the 60 vote rule is a Senate rule. Our founding fathers thought that a majority vote would be enough in almost all cases. That is why the House had an odd number of seats and why the Senate is even but the vice-president breaks the tie. Only in the most serious matters—like removing a President or amending the Constitution would a supermajority be required.
That made sense to the Founding Fathers. It still makes sense.
This also got me to thinking about how disgusted the Founding Fathers would be with today’s politics. They never envisioned this kind of two party system. Their concern was more a state and regional one. They wanted to balance the power of the two political forces—Virginia and Massachusetts. Recall, of our first 6 Presidents, any President not named Adams came from Virginia. It wasn’t until the “populist” (read uneducated barbarian not from Virginia or the Bay State) Jackson that the pattern was broken.
The Founding Fathers thought that any time a majority of the House of Representatives (taken from a more granular cut of the country) and the Senators (two per state—appointed by each state) agreed on something and the President didn’t veto, it must be good legislation. Of course, the veto override if needed would require a supermajority.
The concept worked then. It works now. There is no doubt that the game belongs to the Democrats now. They control the clock and the field. They should be allowed to debate their legislation, bring it up to a vote and pass what they like. The check and balance on that isn’t filibuster. It is ballot box. It is the 2010 elections. It is the 2012 re-election of Obama.
Before the public option takes effect, 2/3rds of the Senate will have faced re-election, all of the House will have been up twice and Barack Obama will have run for re-election. The public option is only going to take effect, in fact, if the Mayan calendar is wrong and the world does not end of Dec. 21, 2012. (Conspiracy theorists have fun with that).
The Democrats won the battles in 2006 and 208 and they get the spoils of war. Good democratic (small “d” as in democracy) government says that such an important matter as health care deserves debate and, yes, even a vote (even if we won’t like the vote). It is time to remember that fact. The place to respond to Obamacare, Pelosi care and Reidcare is at the ballot box.
Democracy triumphed last night (even if we may suffer for it).
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