On the comeback trail - Sasha Cohen

Sasha Cohen performing at an exhibition

Writer’s note: This is the first in a series of analyses that will look at skaters who have announced their decisions to compete again this Olympic season after not competing for a few seasons. These articles are less biographical and more analytical, breaking down each skater and his/her/their competitive chances this season.

History
In early May, 2006 Olympic silver medalist Sasha Cohen announced her decision to return to competitive skating this year after three years off the competitive circuit. Her last competition was 2006 Worlds, where she finished third behind Kimmie Meissner and Fumie Suguri. Cohen has competed on the senior level since 2000, amassing an Olympic silver, three medals at Worlds, and six medals at Nationals (including a gold in 2006).

Analysis
Sasha Cohen’s trademark was her flexibility and style. Although technical consistency was never her strong point, most forget that she was attempting some of the most difficult technical content of any of the ladies early on in her career. She unsuccessfully attempted the quadruple salchow a few times during 2001 and tried triple flip-triple toe and triple lutz-triple toe combinations.

Cohen is familiar with the demands of the ISU Judging System, so getting the highest levels on spins, footwork, and spiral sequences will not be an issue for her. Her Program Component Scores (PCS) should rival those of Mao Asada, Yu-Na Kim, and Joannie Rochette. 

The X factor for her will be how much technical content she will be able to regain after three years of primarily show skating. In the short program, a number of the top ladies in the world are now attempting triple-triple combinations. However, many of them have had their combinations downgraded due to underrotation. It would be a huge risk for Cohen to include a triple-triple in her short. The ones that she completed during her career were either questionable in rotation or two-footed, so it will be tough to gauge how she will play her cards here.

In her free skate, she will need a triple-ending combination or sequence in order to maximize her base value. In 2006, she had a triple toe-triple salchow sequence, which allowed her to include her maximum seven triples. However, under the current rules, that same series would not count as a jump sequence because it includes a mohawk (considered a “step,” which is not allowed in a jump sequence) before the salchow. She will need different sequence, like the triple toe-half loop-triple salchow that she had done at one point, or combination to stay competitive.

Granted, this is not to say that a six-triple free skate cannot win the Olympics. But given the technical content these days, it will likely require mistakes from others for that to happen.

Finally, her triple lutz has always taken off of the inside edge. It will not be imperative for her to fix that, but because of the more stringent judging recently, she will be deducted for that error more than she was when she last competed. Because of that, it is unlikely that she will include two lutzes in her free skate, which puts her at a disadvantage in her base mark to the top skaters. Note that Mao Asada also has issues with her lutz and she will likely only include one her free skate, but she compensates for it in points with her triple axel.

First Test
Cohen’s first competition will be an early indication of how the judges see her in relation to the top ladies in the world.  She will be up against both Yu-Na Kim and Mao Asada at Trophee Eric Bompard in October.

Predictions
Before even thinking about the Olympics, Sasha Cohen will have to get through U.S. Nationals and earn one of the two spots on the team. Her PCS will likely be the highest of any of the ladies, which should offset any technical disadvantages that she may have. Getting on the team is a very possible task for her. At the Olympics, however, she will have to either keep up with the top ladies in technical difficulty or hope that they make mistakes in order for her to have a chance at a medal.

2010 U.S. National Championships – 1^st
2010 Olympic Games – 4^th

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Next: Evgeny Plushenko 

Comeback Trail Series
Sasha Cohen
Evgeny Plushenko
Xue Shen & Hongbo Zhao
Stephane Lambiel
Emily Hughes