Grand Prix Final Preview (Men): Oda tries to continue winning streak

Contenders for the podium in the men’s event at this week's Grand Prix Final
Left: Nobunari Oda (JPN) Photo: AP/Francois Mori
Center: Jeremy Abbott (USA) Photo: AP/Koji Sasahara
Right: Evan Lysacek (USA) Photo: AP/Mike Groll

Three American men are competing at the Grand Prix Final this week, which means that there is statistically a 50% chance that the title will go to the United States. But figure skating is not a coin toss, and they will have to contend with two strong Japanese men and the 2008 European champion. All six of the qualifiers have a quad in their arsenal, and at least three of them should be attempting it this week.

The six men who qualified to the Final, led by the surprise frontrunner of the season, Nobunari Oda, are all capable of standing on the podium at the Olympics. But it is worth noting that some of the best performers of the season are not in the Final, including Evgeni Plushenko, Stephane Lambiel, and the injured Brian Joubert. Nevertheless, this field is deep in talent and will put on a terrific show for the audience in Tokyo.

Here is the scoop on the competitors at the Grand Prix Final:

Jeremy Abbott (United States) – Abbott is the reigning Grand Prix Final champion. After a less-than-stellar showing at NHK Trophy, he almost did not make it back to defend his title. But his win at Skate Canada after two solid performances gave him enough points to make the trip to Tokyo. Last year’s Final was Abbott’s career breakthrough competition, and he can take it to another level this year if he can solidify his consistency and put together two clean programs back-to-back. He is the only of the three American men at this event to have attempted and land the quad this season, and that jump may prove to be the difference this week.

Evan Lysacek (United States) – The World champion has had a solid season so far, not at his peak yet but steadily working toward it. The second half of the season has unofficially begun, and Lysacek would love to start building Olympic momentum this week with a win. He has stated that he will not be attempting a quad until later in the season to avoid reaggravating an injury so close to Vancouver. But it will be important to watch his triple axel and triple flip, both of which have given him some technical trouble this season.

Nobunari Oda (Japan) – The Japanese champion is coming into the Grand Prix Final in the unusual role of favorite. He is the only skater in the field to have won both of his Grand Prix events and he still boasts the best free skate and total scores recorded this season. His Chaplin free skate is quickly becoming his signature program, charming both audiences and judges alike, and turning him into an artist. His jumps are some of the best in the competition, effortless and technically solid. But will he be able to continue his hot streak for another three months?

Daisuke Takahashi (Japan) – The 2007 World silver medalist is coming back from an injury that took him out of competition for the entire 2008-2009 season, and he has had moments of brilliance so far. He has not been as consistent as he was in the past, but his Skate Canada performances were a good sign that he was progressing forward just fine. Like Lysacek, he has had some issues with underrotated jumps this season.

Tomas Verner (Czech Republic) – Verner got into the Final as a result of Brian Joubert’s withdrawal a few days ago. After a silver medal in Paris, Verner battled through the flu and struggled to a fifth place finish at Skate America. He has had three weeks to recover from his illness, but it remains to be seen how it affected his training for the competition, which was not even on his schedule until recently. He is one of the best jumpers in the competition, but he has a history of late-program fatigue.

Johnny Weir (United States) – The three-time U.S. champion is the defending bronze medalist at the Final. His season thus far has been uneven, with two shaky programs in Moscow but a return to form in Nagano. His programs this season are constructed well and choreographically strong, and he will need to take his technical content up a notch if he is to have a chance at standing on the podium. His poor start seemed to have given him a new motivation, which should bode well for the rest of his season.

Predictions
1. Nobunari Oda JPN
2. Jeremy Abbott USA
3. Evan Lysacek USA
4. Daisuke Takahashi JPN
5. Johnny Weir USA
6. Tomas Verner CZE