9 Months out, speculation about 2010 Bonnaroo headliners is already in full force

For most people, the Bonnaroo Music and Arts Festival is something they think about at most twice a year; when the lineup is announced and the week of the festival. But like rabid football fans who spend the entire offseason discussing their team’s strategy and draft for next season, the most hardcore Bonnaroo lovers begin discussing the next year’s festival the minute the get home from the current year’s.

While fans on Bonnaroo’s official message board and on fan sites like Inforoo discuss a variety of topics during the offseason, one topic dominates all others; the speculation on who will be headlining the next year’s festival. A headliner speculation thread on one already has 756 replies and 14,000 views. Not bad for a question that isn’t going to be answered until next February!

If you’re wondering who the early favorites are but don’t feel like wading through 700 posts to find out, I’ve listed them below in order of likelihood, along with what I think the odds are of it happening.

The Dead
2009 was the first year in Bonnaroo history that didn’t feature an appearance from at least one member of The Grateful Dead. Instead, The Dead, consisting of the members of The Grateful Dead without deceased bandleader Jerry Garcia, made an appearance at arch rival Rothbury. Therefore, speculation is high that next year will not only see a return of members of The Grateful Dead but a return of all living members. The Dead would certainly be big enough to headline Bonnaroo and they seem the most likely of the speculated bands to show up.
Odds of Appearing: 2:1

Widespread Panic
Widespread Panic has played more Bonnaroos than any other band, and it isn’t even close. When fans discuss a list of probable Bonnaroo headliners, Widespread Panic barely comes up, not because people don’t think they will be there but because Widespread Panic anchoring one night is pretty much an assumed thing. The only thing that keeps this from being all but a lock is the amount of competition from other bands for the Sunday night closer slot.
Odds of Appearing: 2:1

My Morning Jacket
If any band can lay claim to Bonnaroo’s “house band”, it’s My Morning Jacket. While a few others have made more Bonnaroo appearances, none has virtually made its entire reputation as an epic touring band through Bonnaroo shows. My Morning Jacket has gone from small tent festival opener to mid-day tent performer to late night Which Stage powerhouse. Many speculate that the only logical area of growth for My Morning Jacket at Bonnaroo is a headlining spot. While certainly not enough of a household name to anchor a Friday or Saturday headliner spot, Bonnaroo has often reserved the Sunday Festival Closer slot for a jammy Bonnaroo favorite. My Morning Jacket fits that bill perfectly.
Odds of Appearing: 5:1

Rush
Progressive rock legend Rush has never played Bonnaroo, but their influence is heavily felt every year at the festival, with bands like Umphrey’s McGee and Les Claypool listing them as primary influences. Therefore, it’s not surprising that Rush is often cited by Bonnaroo fans on their short list of groups they’d like to see headline Bonnaroo. With guitarist Alex Lifeson announcing that Rush will begin work on a new studio album in fall of the year, 2010 seems like a perfect time for Rush to finally make their Bonnaroo appearance. The only thing that makes this slightly unlikely is that Rush hasn’t had a radio hit since the 1980’s, making them less popular than the typical Friday and Saturday headliners.
Odds of Appearing: 10:1

The Cure
One of the more persistent rumors during the 2009 speculation was that AC Entertainment had signed The Cure to appear at Bonnaroo. While this didn’t happen, it’s possible that The Cure rumors could have been a trial balloon floated by the festival’s organizers to get a sense of the reaction. Since the fan site reaction was fairly positive, it seems possible that The Cure could be on their way to the What Stage. They certainly fit the bill of a Bonnaroo headliner; a legendary and influential band with a long history of strong stage performances and a name that draws in casual fans.
Odds of Appearing: 15:1

The Rolling Stones
Every year it seems like Bonnaroo gets bigger. In 2008, they managed to grab Metallica and Pearl Jam, leading many to speculate that they couldn’t get any bigger. In 2009, they booked Phish and Bruce Springsteen, proving that they could. But when you go above Bruce Springsteen, you enter rarefied air as far as concert draws. Booking The Rolling Stones would certainly allow Bonnaroo to definitively state they have topped themselves while also ensuring another near sellout no matter what the economy does. But would The Rolling Stones, who can sell out 60,000 seat stadiums by themselves, want to share 80,000 fans with a hundred or so other bands? Only time will tell.
Odds of Appearing: 20:1

Paul McCartney
Staying in the vein of topping their 2009 lineup, many have speculated that Bonnaroo will make a run for legendary Beatles bassist Paul McCartney. It certainly would be a good year for it, as the release of Rock Band: The Beatles and the re-mastered releases of The Beatles catalog has kept McCartney’s name out in the public of late. But Sir Paul is getting up in years and has hinted in recent months about a possible retirement from touring.
Odds of Appearing: 25:1

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Photo Credit: AP Photo/Dave Martin