It’s another start to the Major League Soccer season, and, as always, hope springs eternal, with most teams probably feeling that if everything goes right, they just might do better than they did last year. Problem is, that’s wishful thinking for most, as a long season is full of twists and turns, most of which are impossible to predict. Ignoring that fact is key in appreciating the following predictions.
1. Seattle: Over 30,000 screaming fans can’t be wrong. After a spectacular debut season, Kasey Keller and company should do even better this year, thanks to a full year of developing team chemistry. The loss of Sebastion Le Toux to the Philadelphia Union shouldn’t hurt much, but the mid-season arrival of Swiss striker Blaise Nkufo could be huge. Nkufo scored in all six of Switzerland’s qualification matches for the 2010 World Cup.
2. Columbus: For the last two years, the Crew have dominated MLS, taking home the Supporter’s Shield for best regular season record in 2008 and 2009. There’s little reason to think they won’t do it again this year, as long as ageless Argentine Guillermo Barros Schellotto doesn’t hit the wall. A solid, deep team with experience, the Crew have few weaknesses to exploit.
3. Real Salt Lake: The 2009 MLS Cup champions would rank higher here if they hadn’t entered the postseason last year as the 8th and final seed. In fact, they actually had a losing record (11 wins, 12 losses, 7 ties) before catching fire in the playoffs. But now they’re the champs, with a title to defend. Head coach Jason Kreis, the youngest head coach to win the MLS Cup, will try to build on that success and keep them playing confidently into the playoffs.
4. Houston: The loss of Ricardo Clark and Stuart Holden will hurt, it’s true. But head coach Dominic Kinnear has worked roster magic before. Bringing in Adrian Serioux should add some muscle defensively, and speedy Jamaican Lovel Palmer could help on the attack, but the emergence of designated player Luis Angel Landin might provide the biggest boost, if and when it happens.
5. Los Angeles: Much has been made about star midfielder David Beckham’s devastating injury, but he was already going to miss time for the World Cup anyway, so the loss is not as great as it may seem. This new Brazilian trio sounds intriguing. All three -- Leonardo, Juninho, and Alex Cazumba – were in the starting lineup for the Galaxy’s last preseason game. I’m wondering how good Alex Cazumba can really be, though, if he’s got two names.
6. FC Dallas: Last year, FC Dallas led the league in goals scored, but they were also tied for second most goals allowed. So, head coach Schellas Hyndman brought in gritty MLS and Mexican League vet Daniel Hernandez late last season to infuse his toughness into the defense, and the team went on a spectacular late-season run, barely missing the playoffs. Now Hernandez is the team captain. If he can continue to galvanize the team defensively, and if Golden Boot winner Jeff Cunningham can continue to produce goals, FC Dallas should have no trouble picking up where they left off last year, and should make the playoffs for the first time since 2007.
7. Colorado: If Conor Casey and Omar Cummings continue to produce, the Rapids will be a threat. The midfield looks like a strength. Former Rev Jeff Larentowicz joins Pablo Mastroeni to form a solid central duo. Recently acquired defender Marvell Wynne is speedy enough to turn heads, but still needs polish.
8. NewYork: The Red Bulls would likely rank far lower on this list if not for their opulent new home, Red Bull Arena. The confidence boost to team morale should be worth at least a few extra goals over the course of a season. Also, it’s hard not to like what they’ve done this preseason, going undefeated in ten games.
9. Toronto: If new coach Preki can instill his winning ways into a team that struggled at times in 2009, winning only two road games all season, and if stud Dwayne De Rosario can continue to produce, then Toronto may give their sellout crowds the winning product they deserve. Getting rid of Adrian Serioux is a risky move for a defense that gave up 46 goals in 2009, for 4th worst in the league, but it could be a case of addition by subtraction.
10. Chicago: Do not underestimate the off-season loss of clever veteran Cuauhtemoc Blanco. New Dutch forward Collins John probably won’t fill that void, but at least it’s a step in the right direction. Waiving 2008 year MLS Goalkeeper of the Year John Busch, on the other hand, seems bizarre. Not the sign of a solid and confident organization.
11. New England: Is Taylor Twellman made of glass? If he ever heals up and joins Shalrie Joseph and company on the field, the Revs could win some games. The loss of solid veteran Larentowicz to the Rapids might hurt a little more than they expected.
12. Chivas USA: The Goats looked invincible at times last season, especially early on, but took an early exit out of the playoffs. Now, first-year head coach Martin Vasquez is being asked to help lead the club to the next step. Sacha Kljestan and Jonathan Bornstein will not be able to keep them above water if Zach Thornton, who had a very nice 2009, falls back to earth in 2010.
13. San Jose: The Earthquakes have enjoyed a solid preseason, racking up seven wins and suffering only one loss, so there’s reason to think positive. Maybe heralded first round draft pick Ike Opara can help turn around the league’s worst defense, which gave up 50 goals in 2009. Maybe Ryan Johnson, who jumped from five goals in 2008 to 11 in 2009, can continue to improve. Maybe I just really like the name Quincy Amarikwa.
14. Kansas City: Sometimes they say it’s hard to go anywhere but up. The Wizards will likely challenge that assertion in 2010, following what was arguably the franchise’s worst season in 2009. Peter Vermes, who took over as interim coach after Curt Onalfo was fired last August, has brought in a smorgasbord of international talent in hopes of finding a few players that stick, including a Senagalese midfielder, an Indian forward, a Moldovan named Igor, and a Danish goalkeeper to replace ousted MLS mainstay Kevin Hartman. That last move is the most obvious sign that the Wizards are in rebuilding mode, so expectations should probably be kept to a minimum.
15. D.C. United: Perhaps I’m being overly influenced by witnessing new head coach Curt Onalfo’s last regular season game as a head coach of the Kansas City Wizards last August, but that 6-0 thrashing at the hands of FC Dallas sticks in my mind like a car wreck. Troy Perkins in goal may be a positive, but this team started a free fall late last year that could easily continue well into 2010.
16. Philadelphia: Welcome to the big leagues, Philly. Peter Nowak may be a master of the game, but he can’t protect this team from the inevitable growing pains that lie ahead. Don’t expect another Seattle here, without a Lundjberg or a Zakuani to lead the way. There will be nice crowds, though, and a beautiful new stadium to enjoy the slow ride up the ranks. A young team built for the future, players like Danny Mwanga, Jack McInerney, Toni Stahl, and Roger Torres could steal a few if visiting opponents take them too lightly, though.
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