The first thing you have to understand about strength-of-schedule ratings is pretty much everything you already know about them is bogus.
Think about it: We're being told the Panthers will have the toughest schedule in the NFL in 2009. Why? Because their opponents next season had the best cumulative record in 2008.
In other words, since every team will be just as good (or bad) as last season, we can accurately judge the quality of everyone's opponents in 2009.
Uh, no.
A lot has changed between the exciting Super Bowl conclusion and Opening Day 2009, and any strength-of-schedule worth its accompanying calculator must take this into account.
Here's how my strength-of-schedule ratings are developed:
First, I take last year's defensive statistics. Then I tweak them based on changes each team has made in the off-season, including players returning from significant injuries in 2008.
Maybe a team drafted a defensive star. Or signed a key free agent on defense. Or switched over from an offensive-minded coach to one of the Ryan brothers. Any and all of these things figure to make a team's defense different in 2009 than it was in 2008.
I then take these adjusted stats and crunch them according to each team's 2009 schedule. Note that no two teams play the same schedule, so the numerical differences are worth examining.
As I mentioned earlier, last season's strength-of-schedule calculations indicated the Patriots would have the easiest set of opponents to run against - and in fact the Pats ran well in 2008. It said the Buccaneers would have the easiest set of opponents to pass against - and the Bucs took advantage. And it insisted the Panthers would rank second only to the Buccaneers in terms of easiest defenses to move the ball and score against - and DeAngelo Williams & Co. had a remarkable offensive year.
What to the 2009 ratings tell us? Let's take a look ...
Easiest schedules to run against
Easiest schedules to pass against
Easiest schedules overall to move ball against
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