Related articlesHeading into the 2010-11 season, Kobe Bryant is coming off another stellar season (27.0 points, 5.4 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 1.6 steals, 1.4 trey averages) which culminated in another championship ring. Needless to say, he is entering the season on "cloud nine".
Looking back over the past several years, quite a few fantasy analysts have speculated that Kobe would come down to earth either due to wear and tear over his 14-year and counting career, or because of the depth of talent the Lakers had amassed among the top two units. Looking at the numbers, Kobe has stepped back just a touch in both his minutes and production. Is this the year where it all comes crashing down?
Still Stylin' in L.A.
Naysayers beware, because Kobe is still Kobe. The decrease in minutes is a positive sign that the team is preserving his health when they can. This helps them (see recent championship for example) and Bryant's fantasy owners (as Kobe makes it through a season with less risk of injury).
Looking at the offseason moves and considering Kobe's physical condition, it would be reasonable to expect roughly the same fantasy value as last year.
That said, look for him to contribute in slightly different ways during this upcoming season.
Do the Category Shuffle
- Increase in scoring - The addition of a true point guard in Steve Blake should relieve Bryant of the need to start the offense on every possession. Blake will be helpful in setting him up for some additional good looks at the basket. In the end, don't be surprised to see Kobe finish with 29 or 30 point averages again.
- Decrease in assists - Naturally, if there are other ball handling options to free up Kobe for more scoring, he would be giving back a few assists. Taking this into account, Bryant should finish with between 4.5 and 4.8 assists-per-game.
- Increase in three-pointers made - Following the thinking above, look for Kobe to increase his three-point attempts from 4.1 per game to somewhere between 5.0 and 6.0. If he can sink those shots at his career 34 percent average from downtown, Bryant will average 1.7 - 2.0 treys per contest.
If these forecasts are accurate, Kobe is likely to exceed the value he provided in 2009-10. There is no excuse for his falling out of the top three picks in your draft. If he does, make it your priority to enlist Bryant's services on your path to your fantasy championship.
Comments