Spanish point guard Ricky Rubio has agreed to join the Minnesota Timberwolves next season. The agreement will end Rubio's two-year absence from the NBA after the Timberwolves drafted him fifth overall in the 2009 draft. Facing a $6 million buyout from his Spanish team, Rubio decided on staying overseas and many wondered if the teen even wanted to play in Minnesota.
But all that has now come to a close, and the issue now becomes what Rubio will do from a fantasy standpoint in 2011.
When considering Rubio's fantasy value, the best place to start is regarding his playing time. The Timberwolves drafted Rubio and Johnny Flynn (sixth overall) back-to-back in 2009, hoping the two could one day play together in the same back court. After a solid rookie season, Flynn regressed in 2010, averaging just 5.3 points on 36.5 percent shooting and 3.4 assists.
Many have speculated that Rubio's arrival in Minnesota makes the 22-year-old Flynn expendable, and that Rubio will indeed be given the starter's role. Because of that, it's safe to assume Flynn will not be a key part to Minnesota's rotation in 2011.
Luke Ridnour averaged 30 minutes per game a year ago but is more in the "reserve" stage of his career and should not threaten to steal any additional minutes from Rubio.
So with the door open for Rubio potentially to log serious minutes, let's take a look at his fantasy prospects.
Points: There's no denying that Rubio struggled to score in Spain, averaging just 6.5 points last season for FC Barcelona, but that does not neccesarily mean he will not score at the next level. Look no further than Milwaukee Bucks point guard Brandon Jennings, who averaged 5.5 points in his only season in Italy. The NBA game is much different, specifically more open, than European ball, so it's more important to look at Rubio's characteristics at the offensive end.
Much like Jennings, he is lightning quick and is excellent in transition. He needs to put on more weight (just 180 pounds) but should have no problem getting to the paint. Whether or not he can finish once he gets there is a question, but his speed will serve him well.
His shot selection has been questioned as he shot just 31 percent from the field a season ago, but it has improved and could be a threat in the future. Overall, he is a pass-first point guard and will not do much scoring, but it will be interesting to see how his quickness helps him in getting to the basket.
He has good size to shoot over smaller guards from beyond the arc, but at this stage he is not a threat to make three pointers on a constant basis.
Rebounding: He has good size at 6-foot, 4-inches and averaged 3.2 rebounds for FC Barcelona, so this could be an area where he succeeds in the NBA. He won't make anyone forget about Jason Kidd in terms of rebounding point guards, but he will not be a no-show in the box score in this area. Again, his quickness will allow him to get to spots on the court that could help him pick up an extra board or two.
Assists: If Rubio is going to make any noise in fantasy leagues in 2011, it will be here. Rubio has excellent court vision and can penetrate a defense to allow his outside shooters open looks. He averaged 4.4 and 3.6 assists the last two seasons, compared to Jennings' 2.2 assists his only year in Italy.
Along with being able to make plays from anywhere on the court, especially in transition, he makes good decisions and can also make entry passes working in a two-man game. Rubio will want to get out on the fast break but, as a good decision-maker and crisp passer, Rubio's assists could hover around the 5-to-6 range if everything falls into place.
Steals: Rubio averaged 1.7 steals playing just 22 minutes per game and his combination of length and speed will make him a pesky defender in the NBA. Again, he will need to add strength and bulk to his frame but should be able to do that with an entire summer in an NBA weight room.
Minnesota isn't going to make a run at the playoffs in 2011, but there is still a good core group of players for Rubio to work with in his rookie season. Kevin Love can score from anywhere on the court and can run pick-and-pops with Rubio, which will either free Rubio up for drives to the basket or give him opportunities for assists with Love shooting outside.
Michael Beasley had an excellent bounce-back season in 2010, averaging 19.2 points in 73 games, and last year's rookie Wesley Johnson will have a year under his belt when 2011 begins. While similar, both players will provide Rubio assist opportunities right away.
Another factor in Rubio's fantasy value is that the Timberwolves hold the No. 2 pick in this year's draft. After Cleveland selects Duke's Kyrie Irving, Minnesota is expected to select Arizona's Derrick Williams. While he may not be able to co-exist with Beasley, Williams is one of two players in this year's draft who can come in right away and produce.
Overall, Rubio will have to overcome obstacles and scrutiny to perform well in 2011. The tools are there but the question remains on whether he can acclimate himself to the NBA game. If the playing time is there, Rubio easily could be fantasy-worthy in most leagues with the potential to be a high caliber passing point guard.
As it stands, Rubio is an unknown who will be drafted toward the later rounds of drafts, but he could be a steal if the minutes are there and he can score here and there.
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