Updated: Jake Peavy-to-White Sox trade losing steam

May 21, 12:59 PMChicago White Sox ExaminerJJ Stankevitz

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More updates below, but most reports have Jake Peavy leaning against approving a trade to the White Sox.

***Scroll down the page for more recent updates***

7:15 AM:

Tom Krasovic reports that the White Sox are in discussions to trade for Jake Peavy.

Within the clubhouse, though, Peavy referred to the situation as “something to think about” yet also restated his desire to stay in the National League. One of Peavy's teammates said he believes Peavy respects the Sox's aggressiveness in pushing for him but may have reservations about pitching for Ozzie Guillen, the White Sox's volatile manager.

Okay, so this sounds somewhat legit. Maybe. But who would the White Sox be offering to San Diego? Brandon Allen and Aaron Poreda seem like they would be the starting points of a trade package given what Kevin Towers was looking for in the offseason.

Secondly, Peavy would have to approve a deal to come to the homer-friendly U.S.Cellular Field. It's hard to see this happening, as Peavy's career would probably be better off he if waited until the Cubs, Red Sox, Angels, or a different NL team got in on the bidding in June or July.

So, in short, don't get too excited about this report. I'll have more on it as details start to emerge.

Update, 7:59 AM:

Mark Gonzales is confirming the rumor via twitter. So...this thing might have legs. I have to give a story pitch in my convergence reporting class now, so I'll be back with an update in a little bit.

Update, 9:02 AM:

Gonzales reports that the White Sox are just waiting for Peavy to confirm the deal. However, there was this note from an MLB.com article:

"I only know what you guys [media] know," Peavy said when asked about a rumor of a potential deal.

If that's true, then was Peavy really called in by Bud Black to talk about a potential trade as reported by the San Diego Union-Tribune? At the least, though, this story has legs for now.

More to come later when I get home.

Update, 9:35 AM:

Jon Heyman of SI.com is reporting that the deal is done and is just awaiting Peavy's approval. Since this looks extremely legitimate, here are some of my thoughts on this (in bulleted form):

• Aaron Poreda has to be a part of this deal. There is zero chance the Padres don't accept a front-line starting prospect in return for Peavy. I've been against the White Sox trading away Poreda, but if they're going to trade him Jake Peavy is a pretty darn good return.

• Peavy is owed a lot of money, though. According to Mark Gonzales, the numbers are $11 million in 2009, $15 million in 2010, $16 million in 2011, $17 million in 2012 and a $22 million option for 2013 that has a $4 million buyout. If there's one reason this whole rumor is false, it's that Peavy is owed such a large sum of money over the next few years.
  

• However, this tweet is not a reason to believe the rumored deal is false. If this deal is ultimately made, there's a very good chance that it won't include anybody from Triple-A Charlotte.

• Could this deal include major league players from the White Sox? Speculation time! The first two names that come to mind would be Chris Getz and Josh Fields, but given that both have been struggling recently, I'm not sure the Padres would necessarily be too thrilled about either.

• The Padres, however, need to dump salary. From a Buster Olney bit on ESPN.com:

Padres GM Kevin Towers has said the Padres are about $5 million above the $40 million player payroll that the team's majority owner, John Moores, has set for this season, according to the report.

• So, in theory, the Padres might not need Poreda plus another major prospect for Peavy. Maybe that's just wishful thinking on my part, because trading Poreda along with Brandon Allen/Tyler Flowers wouldn't be a great idea, especially if Peavy's large contract would force the Sox to let Jermaine Dye, Jim Thome, Paul Konerko, and AJ Pierzynski walk after their contracts are up (the Sox probably would let those players go anyway, but getting Peavy would cement that).

• What exactly spawned this deal? Has Kenny Williams been working the Peavy angle for a long time now and finally had a breakthrough, or did he call Kevin Towers recently with a proposal? Is this a desperation move in an effort to save this team? Can Jake Peavy cure Carlos Quentin's heel and break Alexei Ramirez out of his season-long slump? There are a ton of questions I have about this that hopefully will be answered in the coming hours.

• What incentive does Peavy have to approve the deal? He'll be making the move from one of baseball's best pitcher's parks to one of the worst. On top of that, it'll mean a move to the offense-heavy American League, something Peavy has balked at in the past. And it's not like this is going to be the only opportunity to leave San Diego for Peavy via trade this year. Teams like the Cubs, Cardinals, Brewers, Red Sox, Angels, etc. will be calling—especially now that there's a real possibility that Peavy could be off the market—and while those teams may not bring better trade proposals to the table, they could present far better situations for Peavy than the White Sox who, we should remind ourselves, are still just 17-22—which is a half-game worse than the Padres' record right now.

• So, you want a prediction? I think Peavy invokes his no-trade clause and rejects the deal. To be honest, if I were Peavy, that's exactly what I would do. The main thing that this trade has going for it is that the Padres are in a financial pickle, which could cause Towers to pressure Peavy to accepting the deal. Either way, it's going to make for a very, very interesting afternoon.

Update, 10:13 AM:

Corey Brock and Scott Merkin of MLB.com have some information on who would be in the deal:

Two players believed to be in deal are left-handers Clayton Richard and Aaron Poreda, a first-round Draft pick in 2007 who would be the kind of front-line starter the Padres would desire.

Nothing surprising here, considering this:

A San Diego scout was one of at least five talent evaluators watching the Sox last weekend in Toronto.

Gonzales also has today's lineup, with Getz starting at second. Absent? Josh Fields. Of course, that doesn't mean that Fields is going to San Diego by any stretch of the imagination, but at this point with everyone in the dark about the players in the deal it's at least a possibility.

Update, 10:20 AM:

One more note on Fields: Gonzales tweeted this yesterday:

Guillen on Fields: "He's next." not an endorsement.

Again, I'm just speculating here, but maybe Fields could be a part of this deal.

Update, 10:27 AM:

Peter Gammons has some very good info on the trade:

ESPN's Peter Gammons reported that according to sources, the White Sox will send the Padres four players to complete the deal. He reported that Peavy called White Sox right-hander Scott Linebrink last night for his opinion about going to Chicago and got strong feedback.

Sources told Gammons that White Sox shortstop prospect Gordon Beckham is not among the players in the deal. Beckham was the eighth overall pick in last year's amateur draft.

Something doesn't jive between the report that Peavy called Linebrink and that Peavy said this from an earlier update:

"I only know what you guys [media] know," Peavy said when asked about a rumor of a potential deal.

Either Peavy was being coy or the talk with Linebrink didn't happen. It's very much plausible that Peavy gave Linebrink a ring, as they were teammates in San Diego from 2003-2007.

Also, Dave Cameron of FanGraphs has some very, very good analysis of this potential trade. Definitely worth a read—I'm witholding any judgment on this potential trade until I see some hard evidence of names involved. But most of the points made in that post are certainly valid arguments against this trade.

Update, 10:36 AM:

Danny Knobler has an interesting note via twitter:

Poreda and Richard would be the key players in the deal. Would involve either one or two others, both pitchers.

Four pitchers in the deal? Well, at the least, that would mean that Flowers and Allen are safe.

Update, 10:42 AM:

God bless twitter:

"Everything Kenny Williams does is to try and bring another Championship to this city," said Ozie Guillen. "Not sure why people are surprised."

Update, 10:52 AM:

Bruce Levine has a report with a quote from Linebrink on what he thinks the chances are of Peavy approving the deal:

"Jake called me [Wednesday] afternoon to ask about what it's like here in Chicago," said Sox reliever Scott Linebrink, who was a teammate of Peavy's on the Padres. "I think he's ready to move on, but I can't tell you for sure he's going to accept the deal. Losing 100 games, like they did last year, wears on a player.

"Right now, I'd say it's 50-50 as to whether he accepts it or not. He'll get with his family today and make a decision."

If we're waiting on a decision, remember, it's just before 9:00 in the morning on the west coast, so there probably won't be anything on this until mid-afternoon or the evening. It's interesting that he talked to Peavy yesterday afternoon—so this deal has been in the works for a little while then.

Update, 11:33 AM:

There's a video accompanying the ESPN.com story, and Peter Gammons has some more info that wasn't in the text story. A quick summary, if you're at work and can't get any sound:

• Gammons believes the deal will get done today.
• He says Linebrink said Chicago is a great place to play, so it sounds like Linebrink went with a hard sell. Whether it was effective remains to be seen, but it sounds pretty optimistic.
• If the deal goes through, the White Sox will pick up Peavy's $22 million option for 2013.
• Gammons says that the White Sox believe Gavin Floyd has been tipping his pitches, and they think it's something they can fix before Floyd's next start.
• The deal is "almost all" pitching—confirming what Knobler reported earlier.
• Having a deep bullpen could be a benefit to Peavy, who Gammons thinks will be "fine" in the AL.

Update, 11:43 AM:

Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com is on Sportscenter and talked to Peavy's agent, Barry Axelrod, and indicated that Peavy was not ready to pull the trigger on a deal. The reasoning behind that is that Peavy wants to stay in the NL and wants to wait for another team to come along and make a trade offer for him.

He also reported that there's no timetable for Peavy to accept or reject the trade. Crasnick also said that the White Sox would have to do a major sales job to get Peavy to come to Chicago, as they aren't one of the five or so teams to which Peavy automatically accept a trade.

Also, Peavy hasn't had a ton of time to think about the trade.

So Crasnick and Gammons' sources are at odds, and in all honesty, Crasnick's sources are probably more reliable (Peavy's agent) and make a lot more sense. I broached the question earlier of "what incentive does Peavy have to come to Chicago?" and it seems like, from Crasnick's interview, that he doesn't have one. Stay tuned.

Update, 11:50 AM:

Joe Cowley reiterates what Crasnick reported in a blog post on the Sun-Times website.

According to the report, Peavy's agent, Barry Axelrod, says the pitcher respects the White Sox organization, but wishes to remain a National Leaguer

Maybe this is the result of Peavy thinking about the potential of going to the White Sox and the American League. Again, stay tuned.

Update, 12:02 PM:

Tim Kurkjian just reported on SportsCenter that Peavy wouldn't mind other teams getting involved in this trade so the White Sox wouldn't be his only option. He also [correctly] stated that getting Peavy wouldn't make the White Sox instant World Series contenders, so that's just another reason why it's not the best fit for him.

Every bit of momentum seems to point to this trade not happening, but a lot can change.

Update, 12:22 PM:

According to Rick Morrissey of the Chicago Tribune, Kenny Williams has been working on this trade for 11 months. There also is no Thursday deadline for Peavy to accept or decline the trade.

The column is worth a read, as it explores what reasons Peavy actually has for coming to the White Sox. It comes to the conclusion I think a lot of people have already come to: that Peavy really doesn't have any incentive to approve the trade and come to the White Sox.

Update, 12:56 PM:

Alright, I think this will be the last update until Peavy makes a decision either way. Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-Tribune, who originally reported the deal, notes that the deal seems to be on life support:

It’s unlikely the Padres will trade ace pitcher Jake Peavy to the Chicago White Sox, though the clubs discussed a 4-for-1 swap and Peavy has heard from a White Sox player who told him he would love for Peavy to become a teammate.

It’s far more likely that Peavy will start for the Padres on Friday against the Chicago Cubs at Petco Park, according to people close to the pitcher.

Krasovic also adds that Lance Broadway could be one of the players discussed in the deal, but it's not looking incredibly likely that this deal will go through.

So, to sum it up: a decision won't be coming any time soon, and when it comes, it probably will be "no."