Wave of retirements alarms Democrats

In the last twenty-four hours, four more Democrats have announced their retirement, including the first two in the 2010 election season to retire from the United States Senate, according to Politico.com. In the meantime, the special election of a permanent replacement for the late Senator Edward M. Kennedy (D-MA) is approaching, and for the first time the Republican candidate now has a shot at winning.

Senator Byron Dorgan (D-ND) made the first announcement yesterday. Though no Republican had yet announced his candidacy who had a realistic chance of defeating him, speculation was rampant that Governor John Hoeven (R) would announce, and polls indicated that he would trounce Dorgan. (Dorgan might also have had a personal reason: his wife was, by some accounts, less than enthusiastic about supporting him through yet another Senate campaign and six more years of service in the Senate.

Then came the announcement that Lieutenant Governor John Cherry (D-MI) would end his campaign for governor because, in essence, he had run out of money. Then, this morning, Governor Robert Ritter (D-CO) and Senator Chris Dodd (D-CT) also announced that they would not seek re-election.

Democrats aver that they are pleased with Dodd's decision. They believe that Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, now expected to announce, will be better able to defend the open seat than Dodd would have been to defend it as an incumbent. Dodd was trailing badly in multiple polls against the two most likely Republican contenders, and faced scrutiny for his role in the Countrywide mortgage scandal.

ABC-TV columnist Jake Tapper said on Twitter.com that Dodd was not likely to have been re-electable, and that the Republicans would rather be running against him than against Blumenthal. Other commentators on Politico.com's Arena page agreed that the Democrats are actually more likely to keep the Connecticut seat in their hands with Blumenthal defending it.

The situation in North Dakota is another matter. Most commentators agreed that the North Dakota seat was all but lost--and with it the Democrats' 60-40 split in the Senate. Larry Sabato observed that President Barack Obama's hurry to pass his signature legislative programs in the 111th Congress was well understandable, because the 112th Congress will likely not be nearly as cooperative. In addition to Dorgan's announcement, three Democratic incumbents (among them Arlen Specter, the party switcher in Pennsylvania) are facing likely defeats.

The Senate power balance might shift as early as two weeks from now. A recent Rasmussen telephone survey in Massachusetts found the Senate special election significantly narrowed from two months ago. Democrat Martha Coakley leads Republican Scott Brown by 50%-41%, with 7% undecided. Furthermore, Brown holds a commanding lead among "unenrolled" voters. A more interesting finding is that Brown closes to within two percentage points among Coakley among those voters most likely to get out and vote. That Massachusetts voters appear to favor the current healthcare-reform plans 53% to 45% may or may not be significant--because those voters who disapprove of it strongly outnumber those who approve of it strongly by nine percentage points.

Thus far no one in the New Jersey congressional delegation has announced any plans to retire, and New Jersey's two senators do not even face re-election in this season (though Senator Robert Menendez, D-NJ, faces a possible recall election that might take place after November 2, if it takes place at all).

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