CMS actuary warns Senate bill will cost more

Senator Nelson (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

An actuarial report from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, the federal agency that oversees those programs, warns that the Senate health-care bill, in its present form, will raise costs by nearly a quarter of a trillion dollars over the next ten years. This does not allow for the lowering of the Medicare minimum age to 55.

Politico.com today released two PDF files, each containing a letter by Richard S. Foster, the agency's chief actuary, dated yesterday (December 10). The first report, detailing the effect of the health-care bill on cost, estimates that it would increase costs by $234 billion over ten years.

We estimate that total national health expenditures under this bill would increase by an estimated total of $234 billion (0.7 percent) during calendar year 2010-2019, principally reflecting the net impact of (i) greater utilization of health care service by individuals becoming newly covered (or having complete coverage.) (ii) lower prices paid to health providers for the subset of those individuals who become covered by Medicaid, and (iii) lower payments and payment updates for Medicare services, together with net Medicaid savings from provisions other than the coverage expansion.

Concerning the Medicare trust fund, the actuary office states that Medicare will already become insolvent in 2017, though the Senate bill, in its form as of November 18, 2009, would postpone that by nine years. But that assumes that the eligibility age for Medicare remains at 65.

Senator Ben Nelson (D-NE), in an interview with Fox News Channel, said that he was "lukewarm" to the proposal, and is not satisfied with the current compromise position (the details of which remain secret), given the recent CMS reports. Senator John McCain (R-AZ) went further, and said that these reports clearly indicate that the health-care bill is unsound and ought to be defeated.

The National Taxpayers' Union has announced a "High Noon for Healthcare" rally to take place Tuesday, December 15, in Washington, DC. The rally plans include visits to Senate offices, similar to the "House call" that came about spontaneously after Representative Michele Bachmann (R-MN-6) called for the people to protest the version of health-care reform that ultimately passed the House. Americans for Prosperity is planning its own rally, which they call "Code Red," also in Washington.

Previous articles:

• Rep Michele Bachman wants 'House call' from ordinary citizens
• 'House call' draws big crowd on short notice
• Health care reform still might not pass the Senate
• Epic healthcare reform battle in Senate
• Two recent polls spell trouble for Obama health care reforms
• Democrats struggle for 60 votes as Senate healthcare debate begins
• Public option continues to divide Senate Democrats
• Abortion, public option, price might stop healthcare reform
• Public option might be replaced

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