Copenhagen: Day 9 (UNFCCC COP15)

The atmosphere at the 15th Conference of the Parties at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Copenhagen remains divisive even as world leaders are scheduled to start arriving tomorrow to finalize an international treaty on climate and energy. Sharp comments by China directed towards the U.S. encapsulated the major stumbling blocks of the negotiations so far. "In Beijing's view, the U.S. and other rich nations have a heavy historical responsibility to cut emissions, and any climate deal should take into account a country's development level." (AP)

China is grouped together with developing countries, and according to the Kyoto Protocol, developing countries are exempt from emission regulations. Yesterday, African nations initiated a walkout on negotiations because of "suspicions by poor countries that wealthier ones were trying to soften their commitments and evade penalties for missing their targets".

The walkout yesterday stemmed from a disagreement over the extension of the Kyoto Treaty. Developing countries "have been arguing for a twin track approach, whereby countries with existing targets under the Kyoto Protocol (all developed nations except the US) stay under that umbrella, with the US and major developing economies making their carbon pledges under a new protocol". The EU and U.S., in addition to other rich nations, object, wanting an entirely new framework to be worked out in Copenhagen for all nations. The tactic of using the last hours of negotiations in Copenhagen to reframe the entire conference is seen by developing nations as disingenuous, deceitful, and obstructionist at best. (BBC)

The U.S. is still pledging 17% cuts from 2005 levels by 2020, a number that translates to a 3.4% cut from the internationally accepted standard of 1990 levels. Greenpeace said that targets offered so far by Western leaders such as Mr. Obama amounted to 'peanuts'. (National Post) Compare base year emission cuts here using this calculator.

In addition to greater emission cuts from rich nations, developing countries want to see more commitment in financial aid in order to deal with the effects of climate change. "With China and India seeking at least $200 billion a year for developing states, envoys at the climate talks in Copenhagen bargained over several options for funding starting after 2012. No amounts were pledged, according to a draft accord today." That figure is 0.5% of the economic output in rich nations. While nations have stepped up to pledge aid over the next two years until Kyoto expires, long-term aid past 2012 has been a sticking point in negotiations. The UN places the figure for aid between $100-300 billion total for developing nations. (Bloomberg)

The U.S. is reluctant to pledge long-term aid because it says that China is responsible for emissions to the same degree as it is. In addition, the U.S. argues that China should not be considered along the same lines as other developing nations. On Sunday, China abandoned its demand for funding from the developed world to combat climate change in order to avoid being blamed for the failure of negotiations and to engage America in the pledging of aid into an international climate fund for other developing nations. Still, disagreements over who should manage the international climate fund and how it will be doled out remain. (FT.com)

Today, however, China clarified their stance on receiving climate funds from rich countries. Under the UN-backed Clean Development Mechanism, China had been receiving the most money for carbon mitigation projects. While they will still seek funds, China said that they "were focused on the special concerns of the least developed countries, African countries and the small island countries, and are willing to give priority to these countries in using the capital assistance given by developed countries". (COP15)

China and India have banded together under the Kyoto umbrella to pledge emission cuts but not allow international monitoring of their efforts. Todd Stern and the rest of the U.S. climate envoy said, "If we are going to have an international agreement, as opposed to a bunch of individual countries doing their own domestic thing, where countries work together, then they have got to be prepared to put what they are doing into that international agreement." The U.S. remains steadfast on the issue of international monitoring regarding emission reduction efforts. Developing countries stand firm in their refusal considering the weak effort put forth by the U.S. regarding their own emission cuts. (guardian)

There is mounting agreement over one issue. Regarding the REDD proposal (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation), negotiators have been able to agree upon "rewarding tropical countries which slow deforestation under a new deal". In addition, while several key issues on protecting the interests of indigenous people have been addressed, activists for the issue say that part has been removed from the legally-binding part of the text. (COP15 or Reuters)

Pope Benedict XVI got into the action today saying that climate change and natural catastrophes threaten the rights to life, food, health, and ultimately peace. (AP) "In his annual message on the Roman Catholic Church's World Day of Peace, the pope argued that the world's economic, social, and environmental problems are moral crises that require mankind to rethink its way of living." In his talk, he encouraged more research into solar energy, strategies for managing forests, and ways to improve waste disposal. Add the world's one billion Catholics to the ranks of those demanding an agreement in Copenhagen. Read more on the Catholic Coalition on Climate Change here.

The BASIC Bloc (Brazil, South Africa, India, and China) have drawn up their own draft of an agreement with
Africa and renamed themselves ABASIC. Worried that rich countries will reveal a surprise draft in the closing days of Copenhagen, developing nations have prepared their own strategy. "if any of the other groups springs a surprise draft, then the G-77 would put out this text," representatives for the group said. The number of drafts circulating in Copenhagen ahead of world leaders arriving is causing much confusion among negotiators. (COP15)

The carbon capture and sequestration industry got the shaft today. "Climate-treaty negotiators proposed delaying until at least 2010 a decision on letting companies in industrialized nations offset their emissions by investing in carbon-capture projects in the developing world." Citing liability concerns over leakages and a number of other unresolved issues, the UN technical committee decided not to include CCS as a CDM. The proposal to add carbon capture and storage (CCS) to the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) would allow rich nations to receive carbon credits by investing in CCS projects in developing countries. (Bloomberg)

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said regarding the closing days of the UNFCCC COP15 in Copenhagen, “three years of effort have come down to three days of action. Let us not falter in the home stretch. No one will get everything they want in this negotiation”. With world leaders scheduled to start arriving tomorrow, uncertainty will give way closure. Success is in reach, but alas, so is failure.