As the Progressive Conservative Party prepares to render its judgement on the leadership of Ed Stelmach in Red Deer, the most recent poll to guage the mood of Albertans must be casting a pall over the party's Annual General Meeting.
The Wildrose Alliance, previously polling at nearly 22%, has now jumped in the polls to 28% support.
The governing Tories, previously polling at more than 38%, has dropped to 34%.
The Liberal Party's support dropped by nearly a single percentage point and the NDP dropped by nearly two, although both of these numbers are well within the poll's 3 point margin of error, meaning each party has statistically held its ground.
For the PCs, however, there is no such caveat to take solace in. Not only is the Wildrose Alliance gaining on them, but it's beginning to eat into their own share of the electorate. Whereas Stelmach was before looking at winning a possible majority government in a future election, he's now beginning to face the prospects not only of having to settle for a minority government (even if it would be a strong minority), but now the Wildrose Alliance is in a position where it could defeat him in a well-run election campaign.
If anything was going to prompt Alberta Tories to reach for the panic button, this could well be it.
It's evident that the Tories cannot simply rely on conservative voters any longer.
"It really does look like the right [is] separating," explained pollster Tony Coulson. "The wild card now is the Wildrose Alliance. Calgary has been sending the province a message on a pretty regular basis, so this is just another reflection of that disillusionment."
If the Progressive Conservatives intend to continue relying on conservatives -- particularly rural conservatives -- a change in leadership may well be necessary. The problem for the party is that their two best leadership prospects, Jim Dinning and Ted Morton, don't see it this way.
After nearly forty years, it could well be that the Party's time has simply come. If the Tories can't find something -- anything -- to stem the Wildrose Alliance's momentum, it's almost certain.
Comments
Finally, a journalist, or indeed anyone for that matter, who knows how to write an article in proper English, and who isn't afraid to use the 'lowly' comma where it's clearly required.
Bravo!
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