What should those of us in Ohio and especially Northeast Ohio expect from the U.S. Census?
First, one time boosts in both Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and employment, and maybe a decrease in the unemployment rate. The Census Bureau will be using an estimated 800,000 temporary workers starting later this month and going for two-three months. This economic boost will accrue to all areas around the country roughly in proportion to each area's population.
Some key questions that will get answered when the analysis is finished in several months are:
1) Will Ohio continue being the smallest of the seven states having over 10 million people? Based on 2009 population estimates, the other six in descending order are California, Texas, New York, Florida, Illinois, & Pennsylvania. Those estimates also have Michigan as, just barely, the largest of the states with under 10 million.
2) A companion question for Ohioans is how much has the population of each state changed since 2000? For example, Georgia and North Carolina will probably be larger than Michigan and one or both may be larger than Ohio. So Ohio could wind-up being one of nine states with over 10 million people. Will it remain the smallest of the "big" (eight digit population) states?
3) How many Congressional seats will Ohio lose? What matters here is relative growth since the total number of Representatives is fixed at 435. Thus each state's percent of the U.S. population determines its share of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. Ohio's current estimated population of 11.5 million people hasn't changed much since the 2000 Census when it was roughly 11.3 million. However, the U.S. population has grown from roughly 281 Million in 2000 to an estimated 307 Million in 2009, slightly over nine percent. So the question is whether Ohio will lose one, two, or possibly three seats in Congress.
4) A similar situation looms for a loss in electoral votes come 2012. Ohio currently has 20 and Illinois and Pennsylvania each have 21. Ohio will have less than 20 electoral votes and Illinois or Pennsylvania might also wind-up with under 20. This has major implications for presidential election clout.
5) Will the rankings of Ohio's major cities, counties, and metropolitan areas change? For roughly three decades Columbus has been Ohio's largest city if one looks just at population within a city's corporate limits. Cleveland remains second. However Cuyahoga County is now only slightly larger than Franklin County. Greater Cleveland is Cuyahoga plus some contiguous areas. "Northeast Ohio" is basically the old 216 area code and is still Ohio's largest metroplex (or "region"). The answers here will determine the relative standing in the Ohio General Assembly for Northeast Ohio and each of its numerous governmental entities. and 6) Will Cleveland, Greater Cleveland, Cuyahoga County, and many of the smaller governmental entities in Northeast Ohio fall under certain population thresholds and therefore not qualify for special kinds of assistance from various state and federal agencies? If yes, those areas' fiscal situations could become worse and could also adversely affect the benefits to individuals in those areas.
As noted in many places including earlier columns here, it definitely counts to be counted.
Comments