Topical humor, how very droll (AP Photo)
Before I get to the preview, I just want to mention this news story. Apparently Charles Rogers, beloved former Lion, is currently in jail for probation violation. Of all the picks that Matt Millen made, I would say Rogers was unequivocally the worst. The injuries, the off the field issues, the spending of a second overall pick on a wide receiver, it was a perfect storm of stupidity. Rogers clearly does not possess the intelligence or maturity to live the life of an upstanding citizen, and part of the reason he is no longer in the NFL is obviously these issues. There is no excuse for a man of his age to be making such foolish decisions, and you will see no sympathy from me for Charles Rogers. You are responsible for your actions and the results stemming from them, and a series of errors has left Rogers in prison. Hopefully, so that one iota of a silver lining can be found in the sad tale of Charles Rogers life, he can serve as a warning to future aspiring professional football players. He and fellow Michigan State alumnus Plaxico Burress that is.
Jumping from one dour thing to another, let's talk about the Detroit Lions. I was ready to make this the week for the Lions. I was going to pick them to win this game. The Williamses were going to be suspended. Gus Frerotte was going to be prominently involved. The Lions are at home, and they have to see the writing on the wall. They aren't stupid. They may be bad at football, but they aren't stupid. They know this is their best chance for a victory. It is hardly a guarantee, but I was going to throw caution to the win, and pick the Lions to win this one, saving them from the infamy of a winless season.
However, now the suspension of Pat and Kevin Williams is twisting in the wind. Long story short, they brought the lawsuit to court, the judge ruled the suspension does not stand, and if the NFL can't get the ruling overturned, the Williamses will likely play. This, of course, deals a huge blow to the chances of the Lions winning which were, admittedly, not that good to begin with.
Obviously, there is still a chance the Williamses won't get to play, and if there is breaking news on the situation I'll be sure to mention it later, but for now, let's presume they play. This leaves the Lions with no chance of running the ball. Kevin Smith, while he has shown flashes of good things to come, will not be able to run on the Vikings defense. Nary a running back can, so this is no slight to him. The Vikings only allow 73.1 yards per game on the ground. However, what may be even more of a concern to the Lions is how well Jared Allen has been playing recently. Daunte Culpepper is not a mobile quarterback, if I may make a painful obvious statement. Allen is one of the premier pass rushers in the league. The Lions offensive line is nothing to write home about, unless you like to write home with tales of poor quality pass blocking. This is a recipe for disaster. The Vikings pass defense is not great by any means, it's actually about on par with the Lions when it comes to yards per game, so if Culpepper gets a chance he could complete some big passes. The Vikings certainly don't have anybody who can cover Calvin Johnson one on one. However, if the Vikings are able to get pressure on Culpepper, which seems likely, he will be hard pressed to have the time to find Johnson deep, and some more interceptions will likely be in his future.
I put no stock in this being a "revenge game" for Culpepper, while I am discussing your hero and mine. Yes, once upon a time Culpepper was a great quarterback for the Vikings, but that was a few years and a non-obliterated knee ago. While I am sure he would like to have a good game against his former team, I am also sure he'd like to have a good game every week, and that just hasn't been happening. I don't think they is any sort of magical force Culpepper can call up from deep inside him in order to pull out all the stops against his former team and put up good numbers. He just doesn't have the talent in him anymore. He is a washed up quarterback who say his best days a long time ago. If the Lions want to have a chance to win, he'll need to have a good game, but I just don't see it happening.
Then there is when the Lions defense is on the field. Will Gus Frerotte be out for revenge against the team he once led to the playoffs? Does Frerotte even remember playing for the Lions with all the teams he has been on? Most of all, does it even really matter with Adrian Peterson on the field? I can certainly answer the last one, and the answer is a resounding "no." While the Vikings only allow 73.1 yards per game on the ground, the Lions concede a staggering 176.9 yards per game. I could easily see Adrian Peterson eclipsing that number himself. He ran all over the Bears last week, he currently leads the NFL in rushing yards, and he is the record holder for most yards rushing in a single game. When the Lions played the Vikings in the Metrodome and almost squeaked out a victory, Peterson rushed for 111 yards on 25 carries. If he gets 25 carries this week, he should blow that number out of the water. The Vikings won't even need to pass the ball, but if they do, Bernard Berrian could easily break off a big touchdown, as he is prone to do. I won't guarantee it, as I am never a fan of expecting feast or famine receivers to put up big numbers, but it could certainly happen.
People have been considering this a potential win for the Lions particularly because of that 12-10 game played earlier this season. It is true the Lions played the Vikings tough, but they still lost. Additionally, the Lions won the turnover battle that day three to one. I don't see that happening again, not with Daunte Culpepper at the helm for Detroit. As I mentioned once before, teams haven't gone winless since the 1976 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (who went 0-14) because all it takes is one week where the breaks go your way against an average team having an off week and you get the win. Could the 12-10 loss been "the week" so to speak? Do you really see the Lions getting that close to a victory again? I really cannot, not if the Williamses play. If they don't end up playing, and the Vikings defense is thrown into disarray it's a possibility, but I don't see that happening at this point. Yes, it is very "hard" for a team to go winless, but that does not guarantee it won't happen to the Lions. Don't give into the gambler's fallacy. Each game is different, each team is different, and each season is different. This is a truly terrible football team, currently sitting at 0-12 with four potential playoff teams in their future. The Vikings, fresh off defeating the Bears and with the Packers in a must win situation from here on out, have to smell blood in the water. They will not allow themselves to take the Lions lightly and blow this game with the playoffs on the line. They will ride Adrian Peterson all game, and I do believe he will deliver them to a victory. For a brief moment earlier this week, I entertained picking the Lions to win this game. However, that has proven to be fleeting. Vikings 24, Lions 14.
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