When I hear about the race for North San Diego County's 50th Congressional District as not being winnable by a democratic candidate because Democrats have tried and failed several times, I want to run down a list of reasons why those naysayers are wrong. Dead wrong. As in graveyard dead wrong. Perhaps, it’s time to spell out the reasons why a Democrat can pull off this supposed Hail Mary pass win, and explain why a Democrat hasn’t done so already in the 50th.
Why a Democrat can win in the 50th:
1. The 50th Congressional District has not been a historically Republican District.
The Wikipedia and 2010 California Race Tracker webpages for the district show the it’s election results from 1992 to the last race. It is pretty clear that the district has only been under Republican control since the 2002 election, when former President George W. Bush and his colleagues took over. The Republicans may like to think the district always been theirs, but election results don’t lie.
Moreover, it should be noted that the big flip took place after the 2000 census, when the then 51st District was renumbered as the 50th District, the district boundaries were gerrymandered to exclude the relatively liberal areas of La Jolla, Bird Rock, downtown La Jolla, and UCSD. Those areas were moved to the more liberal 53rd District, and the generally more conservative community of Clairemont Mesa was added to the new 50th District.
2. The Democrats have been closing the point gap with Republicans during every election cycle since 2002 in the 50th, regardless of gerrymandered district boundaries that favor the Republicans
Duke Cunningham handed the Democrats their rear in 2002 with a 32-point lead. This resounding defeat was a wake-up call to the Democratic Party to redouble their voter registration and Get Out the Vote (GOTV) efforts. In the 2004 election, Francine Busby managed to whittle that gap down to 22-points, and then down to a 10-point gap in the 2006 regular election, having probably been her last best chance to win this district. Nick Leibham’s efforts narrowed the gap even further, a 5-point spread in the 2008 election, bringing Democrats to within striking distance of Republican incumbent Brian Bilbray.
3. The 50th District elected Progressive Democrat Barack Obama for President of the United States in 2008
Again, in a supposedly Republican district, how did President Obama manage to beat Republican candidate John McCain 51-47? How did he pull this off when voter registration in the district is 31.4% Democratic, 40.3% Republican, and 28.3% Decline-to-State/Other? Obama was able to capture the hearts and minds of some the Decline-to-State/Other voters that turned out to vote against Bush, as well as some Republican voters that felt disenfranchised by the Republican Party’s policies—the fabled swing vote, because he ran an issue-based campaign that resonated with issue-based voters in the district.
With a Democratic history, a Democratic resurgence after a gerrymandered win by Republicans, and a strong affinity for Progressive, issue-based campaigns, California's 50th Congressional district is ripe for the picking by a Progressive Democrat. In Part 2 of my article, I will explore why a Democratic candidate hasn’t yet won the District and what they need to do to wrestle control back from the Republicans.
Sources:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California's_50th_congressional_district
http://2010californiaracetracker.wetpaint.com/page/CA-50
Comments
I think it's pettier than that, the local dem's like to think they are "in charge" and because the most viable candidate, Tracy Emblem isn't in their pocket, they would rather just loose again until they can get someone who will work for the "Party" and not the people.
As long as Busby runs, I don't think the democrats have a chance.
If the democrats put a fast thinking candidate whom people can relate to they can win.
The Rich, Fit, educated population of this district can't relate to Busby.
Good Article.
I've known the 50th district to be democratic, but Brian Bilbray has been winning for a wile now. They seem to like him
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