Will new Russian pipeline plans isolate Eastern Europe?

Map of new pipeline routes, notice Eastern European nations bypassed. Photo: EEP  

With Western Europe heavily dependent on Russian oil and natural gas, the newest pipelines suggested by Gazprom and other Russian state-ran energy companies, which bypass Eastern European nations, appear to be nothing more than good business.

The three pipelines named Nord Stream, Nabucco, and South Stream, are according to Gazprom representatives, being built to allow an increase in flow of oil and natural gas to the EU in order to avoid energy shortages. 

Gazprom, which supplies 28% of Europe's natural gas supply, says that the projects are simply to increase supply output, since the North Sea output has declined over the past couple of years.

Existing pipelines run from Russia, through the former Soviet bloc states and Poland, and from there to Germany and the rest of the EU.  These pipelines are vital to Eastern European nations as a source of energy, and new fears are arising that Russia is simply building the newest pipelines in order to isolate Eastern Europe from the West. 

These fears are not unfounded.  The FOI, a Swedish Defense Ministry research affiliate, in a recent report found that there have been at least 55 direct politically linked, energy supply disruptions since the fall of the Soviet Union. http://www2.foi.se/rapp/foir1984.pdf

Zbigniew Siemiatkowski, a former head of Poland's security service has been quoted as saying, "Yesterday tanks, today oil," when questioned about the Nord Stream pipeline.

Thus, the question stands, is Russia positioning itself to exert more influence over Eastern Europe?  There are certainly reasons to worry, as it was not long ago that in an effort to exert influence over the Ukrainian elections, that Russia cut-off the natural gas and oil supply to the country.  Such actions may indeed be repeated, regardless of international opinion.

It seems quite disturbing that in wake of the recent U.S. decision to withdraw from the commitment of installing a ballistic missile defense shield system, that the EU and other Western leaders are so trusting of Russia.  Poland, who long suffered under Soviet Rule, has long maintained that Putin's government has ambitions of retaking or at least controlling former Soviet satellite states. 

One must admit that when compared to past actions, such as the incursion into Georgia, Russia may certainly be seen justly as a threat to neighboring states.  And as the current pipeline system cannot be disrupted without interrupting flow to the EU,  it would indeed give Russia a strategic advantage over Eastern Europe to have the ability to supply energy to the EU directly.

The situation has certainly driven a slight wedge between Eastern Europe and the rest of the continent, as German officials have maintained support for the project as progress in meeting energy demands of Europe.  Gazprom and Russian officials have dismissed Eastern European fears as unfounded and backward, stating that “The wall broke down 20 years ago,” and maintain that the project is commercial not strategic.

In the end, regardless of which side one takes in this controversy, it would seem most prudent for the international community to keep an eye on Russia's future dealings with Eastern Europe.  Though it maybe perhaps conspiratorial to ascribe imperial aspirations to Russia this early, the fact that Russia intends to build these new pipeline routes as well as were so greatly disturbed with the U.S. missile defense shield plans in Poland and the Czech Republic, that it seems cautionary action to maintain a close watch is necessary.

For more information:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/13/world/europe/13pipes.html?_r=2

http://en.rian.ru/world/20090519/155042855.html

http://www.energy.eu/