The debate has already started in the Senate over the START Treaty that is being negotiated with the Russians, as we reported some time ago. Conservatives are preparing to battle the Obama administration over the high-priority plan to finish a new arms-control treaty with Russia before the end of the year.
The subject is past Russian compliance with the existing treaty that expires in December. A 2005 report to Congress by the State Department's Bureau of Verification and Compliance states that: "a significant number of longstanding compliance issues that have been raised in the START Treaty's Joint Compliance and Inspection Commission remain unresolved." This document has not been updated since then.
Paula DeSutter, the former Assistant Secretary of State for Verification and Compliance, who was not asked to remain in the Obama’ administration stated that: "The more recent compliance report, when it does go to the Senate and House, will be disturbing in a lot of ways because Russia continues to be in violation of the START treaty."
State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley said the START treaty has been in force for 15 years and "some questions about implementation have arisen on both sides. The administration is working hard to complete the 2009 compliance report, incorporating information from 2006, 2007 and 2008, when the report was not produced," he said. "We will certainly be briefing the Senate on it when it is completed."
Senator Kyl said in a Senate floor speech that Russia's development of a new multiple-warhead RS-24 missile (also known as the SS-27) that was last tested in May 2007 violates the current treaty. The essence of the allegation is that the SS-27 is capable of delivering multiple warheads and thus is banned by the treaty. Senator Kyl goes on to ask why the Russians would be testing a missile that is banned by the Treaty? A good question?
However, the issue is not that clear. Ms. DeSutter is reported to have said that the Russian military has conducted tests of the SS-27 that demonstrated the capability of carrying three multiple-independently targetable (MIRV) warheads, but without actually putting dummy warheads on the test missile. (Please see the first comment.)
Clearly, the treaty compliance issue will cloud the ongoing negotiations and the deliberations in Washington. The administration should be working on a gap filling measure to deal with the time frame between the end of the current treaty and the entering into force of any new treaty
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What do you think that the administration should do? White wash the compliance issues? Face them head on? Give the Russians what they want to get a treaty before December?
Comments
Paula DeSutter has been in the Arms Control compliance business since I was in the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency over 20 years ago. The she was very conservative and was part of the cabal of Richard Perle's followers who saw the Soviets always cheating at everything. I have no idea what her current orientation might be but a statement that says that the SS-27 is capable of carrying three war heads, but hasn't been tested with three war heads definitely has some logical problems.
Colonel Bruce is as astute as ever...
That said, the conservatives, of which I proudly include myself, are NOT "preparing to battle the Obama administration over the high-priority plan to finish a new arms-control treaty with Russia before the end of the year". Indeed, I led negotiations with the Russians to try to accomplish just that for the previous year or two. Rather, we are trying to ensure that in the effort to get an agreement, we do not compromise deterrence (for both the US and those allies that rely on the US nuclear umbrella), and our defenses, which will be critical to manage the risk of possible Russian violation while we move to lower levels of offensive forces. Cheers!
failsafe pack out date for the VPMF is Dec 4. contractor is already in breakdown mode. onsite cooks leave nov 20. only the gym equipment will be shipped back to darmstadt. plans are to leave furniture in place.
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