Now that the McChrystal episode is behind him the President needs to complete the job of cleaning up his Afghanistan team. Additionally, there will most likely be some policy changes coming and the continuation of many tactics and techniques while changing others.
Before going into the probable fallout from the McChrystal episode let me point out three things:
1. General McChrystal and his staff only very marginally said anything about the President and there are reports that they tried to correct the story and the author would not let them. The comments were aimed at others, especially the State Department side of the country team—Ambassadors Elkenberry and Holbrooke.
2. Had the President not had a political need to appear strong and in charge he would have done what was correct and stayed out of the whole issue. He would have told Admiral; Mullen and General McChrystal’s immediate supervisor General Petraeus to handle the matter. They either individually, or jointly would have chewed McChrystal up one side and down the other and then told him to get back to his war and to keep his and his staff’s mouths shut.
3. The access of reporters to senior military officers will be very limited from hence forward. The people who suffer the most from this is the American public as they now have to get information through the White House and Pentagon filters.
This episode suggests that the administration must now find some one to coordinate with and point President Karzai to do what is right. (Karzai reportedly only trusted McChrystal and doesn’t trust General Petraeus like he did McChrystal.) In theory the country team of Ambassadors Elkenberry and Holbrooke should be reassigned so that there is unity of effort by the Afghanistan country team. It would not surprise your scribe if this wasn’t one of General Petraeus’ conditions for accepting the Afghanistan position. The ambassador is supposed to be the head of the country team, but has not gained President Karzai’s support and should be replaced. The White House and State Department do not need a regional Czar like Holbrooke, who is rejected by both the Pakistanis and the Afghans. He should be given a different portfolio, at best.
While all of this pseudo drama has played out it has been business as usual in Afghanistan and one of the top Taliban leaders in Kandahar was killed—in other words what General McChrystal did for General Petraeus in Iraq continues. The creep into Kandahar operation is slowed, but it continues.
One can expect that there is already a transition team headed by a smart Colonel that General Petraeus trusts in Kabul reviewing the entire situation and preparing recommendations for the General. There are hints coming out on what those recommendations might be:
1. A change in the very restrictive rules of engagement (ROE) that the average soldier or marine on the ground is complaining about and which may be a partial source of the increased casualties.
2. A campaign to undue the President’s withdrawal timetable. Both the Secretary of Defense and General Petraeus have suggested this.
We will see more next week during the General’s confirmation hearings.
Some Pakistani commentators have suggested that the current relationship vacuum in Kabul is what General Kayani, the politically powerful Pakistani Army Chief of Staff, may have been waiting for. (Readers should remember that Kayani came to be Chief of Staff of the Army by being the Chief of the powerful Pakistani intelligence services before being promoted to chief. It should also be remembered that he brokered the deal between the Pakistan Supreme Court and the current government about 15 months ago, while I was in Pakistan.) There is no external individual who now has a relationship with President Karzai, in General McChrystal’s absence. This is the opportunity that the Paks have been waiting for. They want to try and broker a deal in Afghanistan to strengthen their hand against India and gain strategic depth.
Pakistan is pushing into Kabul with offers of ending the conflict through a negotiated power-sharing deal with the Haqqani Taliban network. The Haqqani network is considered, by many, as the most powerful militant network operating in Afghanistan. Pakistan's military and intelligence services have continued over the years, in spite of protestations to the contrary, to maintain strong ties to the Haqqanis. This is despite US demands that they crack down on the group.
According to a New York Times report, the Pakistanis have been waiting for a moment like the one offered by McChrystal's exit to activate this strategy. Karzai has lost faith in the US administration and is looking for a partner that can bring peace to his war-torn nation. General Kayani has offered that possibility for peace, telling Karzai he can guarantee a deal with militants.
So a Pakistan operating in a far different way than that desired by the administration may in fact save face for the administration. To add this flexibility to the US approach to Afghanistan will require the new country team advocated earlier.
There is a significant amount of the fog of war in the air and only the President and time will blow it away.
What do you think of the current situation?
Comments
What your article suggests to me is that there are so many conficting interests at stake in Afghanistan that we are very unlikely to succeed there no matter what strategy we adopt and no matter who is heading it. If General McCrystal thought he had a special relationship with Karzai this only provides further evidence of the political naivete he demonstrated in his conversations with a journalist for Rolling Stone. The real issue is how to get out of Afghanistan without destroying our credibility in the region and world wide. That may be impossible at this point.
Don may be right. What do you think?
The best bet for U.S is to let Pak Military structure a deal with one condition: NO AL Qaeeda
If that condition can be met we should let Pak army call shots while we macro manage from Washington.It is high time to get U.S sons back from the useless war
Several comments all in one posting:
Chengez Caan - Stop pushing "play" on your 8 track recording of the protests you attended in the 1970's...it's embarrassing.
If General Kayani can "guarantee" a deal he is self serving (There's a shocker...yea right) and playing both sides (Another shocker).
General Petraeus is being set up by the military hating administration. Cut and run timetable on or off, the General will be the loser because it will be all his fault come Nov '12 (or is it still "The prior adminstrations faulty")...I've lost track of who they are shedding the blame on NOW...
General McChrystal played right into the left wing playbook. He gave the President an open invitation to "look" strong to the uninformed. It was Rolling Stone for GODs sake...I knew the President fired the General long before the childish call to the Principles office...The haven for CIVILIAN control of the military (or so the President felt the need to point out.
Has anyone read the Rolling Stone article? If it is even partially correct General McCrystal was indeed a runaway general. It seems that he has been fighting the system, both the military and the civilian ones, throughout his whole life. It makes you wonder who in the Pentagon ever picked him for the Afghanistan job. Based on prior experience it should have been predictable that he would run off the tracks. He should be a field commander for special operations, where he seemed to excel. As he himself apparently said, it is all about finding and killing as many of the enemy as possible. But in Afghanistan he put in place a policy of so-called restraint which was, it seems, not accepted by the troops on the ground, who it put in greater danger. And it runs counter to everything he has done as a military commander for his whole career. It seems clear now that he was the wrong man for the job. Now we will find out if General Petraeus can do any better. The odds do not look good.
Pakistan has always been an ally whever we needed them for their economic reasons and our ability to fulfil their needs but we also always screwed them too. Now is the time to let them make the deal with the devil which is in both of our interests. This will somwhat make up for our trust deficit with them even though we have defense pact with India which is in direct conflict with the Pakistanis. But lets make the best of the situation because this our only option. Iraq Surge was a fluke it may not happen again and then we will have a shameful withdrawal like the Vietnam. Got bless us with wisdom and save us from arrogance.
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