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I found some information that has me concerned about engaging in the CARS program.
Burning a gallon of gas creates approximately 19.4 lbs of carbon dioxide.
Twelve thousand miles a year at 15 miles per gallon* means my 1996 Ford Explorer burns 7.76 tons of CO2 (12k divided by 15 = 800 gallons, 800 x 19.4, the product of which divided by 2000 = 7.76)
12k miles a year at 22 miles per gallon (Honda Element, Subaru Outback) burns 5.29 tons of CO2 for a 2.47 ton reduction of CO2 over my Explorer.
Making a new car creates between 3.5 and 12.4 tons of CO2; a professor at Duke University says the average is 6.7 tons of CO2.
To make up for the creation of the 6.7 tons of CO2, I would have to drive the new car at least 2.7 years; however, since the 2 vehicles I was looking at are larger than plain old small cars, I'll put them at 9 tons of CO2 for construction. That means I'd have to drive it for 3.6 years to break even on the CO2 production.
Now, in all honesty, I probably don't drive 12,000 miles a year in my Explorer due to riding my BMW R1100GS motorcycle, which I probably put 10k a year on (10k miles per year at 40 mpg = 2.43 tons of CO2). So figure I'd probably only drive, say, 9k miles a year in a car, which means (9k miles a year at 22 mpg = 3.97 tons of CO2, which means a reduction of 5.82 (the Explorer based on 9k/yr @ 15mpg) - 3.97 = 1.85 tons of CO2 per year) to offset the construction "cost" of 9 tons of CO2 then would take 4.8 years. With that extra 1.85 tons of CO2 per year, it would take me about 4.6 years for my CO2 output to equal the construction cost in CO2 of a new vehicle. That's basically breaking even.
When you look at the CARS program in that light, it's not about the environment at all. It's far more about funneling even more government money into the auto manufacturers and especially their financing companies, because that's where the $3500 or $4500 really goes in the end – the local dealer doesn’t keep that money to put back into their business. Add to that the payments on new cars, interest and profits and it’s clear that CARS isn’t an environmental incentive program, it’s a thinly veiled stimulus program for America’s failed auto industry.
The $3 billion put into this program (the initial $1 plus another $2 billion if it gets through Congress this week) reportedly comes out of the $6 billion directed to the Department of Transportation by the recent federal stimulus bill. The DOT has already pledged $4 billion of that stimulus money, which means they either go $1 billion into debt or they have to take money away from real environmental programs like solar power, wind turbines and hydroelectric generation. If the next $2 billion doesn’t come out of those programs, it has to come from somewhere – and the stimulus bill for the future is already mighty steep.
If the government really wants to get serious about reducing carbon dioxide emissions, they would extend the Cash For Clunkers program to include motorcycles and scooters. Even though I wouldn’t be caught dead riding a scooter like Yamaha’s Vino 125, if I were to ride the thing for 12,000 miles, the CO2 output would be a mere 1.21 tons (12k miles divided by 96 mpg = 125 gallons, 125 x 19.4 pounds of CO2 per gallon, the product of which is divided by 2000). Compared to my Explorer, the Vino 125 is a green dream that would take 7.4 years of riding to equal the CO2 output of building one of the new vehicles that interests me.
Even a pretty run-of-the-mill motorcycle like the Suzuki SV650, which gets a combined mpg of about 50, would take 3.9 years of riding to equal that 9 tons of CO2 for new construction.
Naturally, now I'm conflicted about the whole thing. When I take into account what the removal of approximately 750,000** older vehicles from our nation’s highways will do for the auto parts industry and the local auto repair shop industry, the cost is far more staggering in that it will definitely cost jobs, which in this time of recession we can scarcely stand. I doubt the number of jobs lost in the repair shops will match up with the number of jobs created by this short-term rejuvenation of the auto manufacturing industry.
I should probably just commit to riding my motorcycle more often and driving the Explorer less often. In the long run I’ll be benefiting the environment and my own pocket as well.
* 15 mpg for my model Explorer is the government’s estimate; in my practice (over a year of keeping fuel consumption and mileage logs), this particular Explorer only got a combined 13 mpg.
** Government and auto industry reports have claimed that approximately 250,000 new cars have been purchased in the first round of the CARS program; since that round cost $1 billion and Congress is proposing an additional $2 billion, that leads me to the estimate of 750,000 new cars.
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Comments
Not only are you conflicted but you are a little too familiar with shadows and mirrors. I am sure there is a little cloud that follows you around and strikes you with lightning bolts occasionally. Thats whenm you write goofy articles like this one. Are you just missing the point of the clunkers program because you are ignorant, or is it because you are willfully ignorant?
Check One
"It's far more about funneling even more government money into the auto manufacturers and especially their financing companies, because that's where the $3500 or $4500 really goes in the end – the local dealer doesn’t keep that money to put back into their business. Add to that the payments on new cars, interest and profits and it’s clear that CARS isn’t an environmental incentive program, it’s a thinly veiled stimulus program for America’s failed auto industry."
Bingo!!
Interesting point of view Wes. Things that make you say "hmmm."
Owlafaye, you criticize the authors point of view without extolling the virtues of your own. Please enlighten us as to the point of the CARS program as it exists in your world.
I see merits all around in the Cash For Clunkers program.
Report I saw last night on the local indicated some of the dealers are miffed because Cash For Clunkers has moved an unusually high volume of cars leaving dealer lots more empty than normal. In the current climate, were I a dealer, I would not be keen on stocking up again to capacity until it's clear the economy were in rebound or that buyers were willing to buy cars anyway. CFC is something of a safety measure for them.
As economical cars are replacing gas guzzlers, it's clear people are not happy with gas hogs even with the price of gas as low as it is. The story that Big Oil has sold for years about oil forever has been proven to be a work of fiction, and the American people are now getting that.
Finally, it should come as a wake up call for the Detroit 3 and the others. Absent the 2016 CAFE Standards, the American people want more fuel efficient cars.
Merits all around? Economically-sound vehicles are being destroyed, poor people and the unemployed are priced entirely out the program, used car prices are going up putting those poor people in more of a bind, and lots of middle class people are being induced to give up reliable car that get reasonable gas mileage for new car and a big car loan.
More debt, fewer options for poor people, questionable carbon benefits -- and lots of new car sales for the car companies.
Ah, there you go. The silver lining!
Rick R.
I would think poor and unemployed people aren't buying new cars anyway, but rather are hanging on to their existing cars if they have one at all, so I don't think the program is really aimed at them. Since the cap on the price of a new car is $45,000, it's not really aimed at the luxury car market either, making this program aimed squarely at the middle class.
No doubt used car prices will go up slightly, simply because as a nation we are looking at removing 750,000 used cars from the road - supply and demand kicks in, though, so maybe the demand for used cars will go down and ameliorate any price spike in that market as the people that would normally drive their old car into the ground and buy another used car will now be looking at trading in early and getting a new car.
I think my plan now is to figure out how to make my Explorer last another 5 years and then cash in and buy one of the heavildepreciated cars bought now under the CARS program.
For now, I'm going to ride mo
Concerned about the environmental impact of cash for clunkers? Then do what I do. Trade in that car for commuting by bicycle (and public transportation on days when it rains). Not only do I truly reduce my carbon footprint, but road congestion and my avoirdupois as well. 18 lbs lost since the first of the year; blood pressure down from 135/90 to 122/68; much more alert and active; I hear the birds sing in the morning; and I reduce traffic congestion. Give them the cash only on trade ins for new bikes!
I agree that the environmental benefit of the program is very questionable. Another consideration: When people get a brand new, reliable car with good fuel economy, will they drive it the same number of miles as they did their old, broken-down, unreliable gas guzzler? Or will they drive more miles, wiping out at least part of the environmental benefit?
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