Top 10 young players in the National League West - part 2

Clayton Kershaw - AP Photo/David Zalubowski

Yesterday I listed players 10 thru 6 in my ranking of the Top 10 Young Players in the NL West. Here is a quick revisit.

10. Matt Cain
9. Pablo Sandoval
8. Max Scherzer
7. Dexter Fowler
6. Matt Kemp

In my article yesterday I wrote that Kemp gets a nod over Fowler and that Kemp was the proven version of Fowler. This didn’t sit so well with the Los Angeles Dodgers Examiner, Jim Lakely. In his rebuttal from yesterday he wrote that Kemp had much better production at an earlier age than Fowler. Kemp had a higher OPS and the production at the plate is much more valuable then steals. I agree with this statement. However, I think Fowler’s ceiling might be higher than Kemp’s.

I believe that as Fowler grows as a baseball player, he will be right next to Kemp in the long run. Kemp had nearly 400 plate appearances at the AAA level, Fowler has none. Kemp progressed through the minor leagues a lot faster than Fowler too. At the age of 18 Kemp was already in Rookie Ball and by the time he was 21 he had already made stops at low-A, AA and AAA baseball and racked up about 1500 plate appearances. Fowler on the other hand spent his first three seasons in A and Advance A ball learning how to switch hit. In 2008 he played a full season in AA and then came straight to the majors with almost exactly 200 less professional plate appearances than Kemp and the new found left handed swing.

My contention is that Fowler is still going to grow a lot as a baseball player. I am sure Kemp will too. However, being that Fowler has a swing that he only started using about four years ago, he will catch up to Kemp (if not pass him) in the coming years. Both are great young talents and both will be fun to watch for the next 10 years.

On to the top 5!

Number 5: Clayton Kershaw (21) of the Los Angeles Dodgers has a hook so sharp he could catch fish with it in the desert. In the line of great lefties for the Dodgers will Kershaw rank up there with the best when his career is over? The kid is only 21 years old and already has 163 2/3 innings in the major leagues. Joe Torre and the Dodgers are taking it easy on him this year as he already has had a couple starts skipped, but at his tender age he is already nearly striking out a batter per inning. In his 163 2/3 innings of major league baseball he has 155 strikeouts. While his walk total is high, 84 career walks, it is mostly because that wicked curve ball doesn’t find the plate on a consistent basis yet. When it does, watch out baseball. 

Ubaldo Jimenez - AP Photo/David Zalubowski

Number 4: Ubaldo Jimenez (25) of the Colorado Rockies. In his most recent outing against the Astros Ubaldo threw two pitches in a row. One was 98 mph and the next was 99 mph. Sure, those are both extremely hard and fast but both also moved a good six inches! Not only does this kid throw harder than most anyone else in baseball, his fastball has a lot of movement too. Imagine trying to hit a 100 mph fastball and then try to imagine hitting one that moves six or seven inches right or left by the time it gets to the plate. Darn near impossible to square up a pitch like that.

Most people talk about Ubaldo’s “stuff” like it is a gift from God. It might be. His slider and breaking balls are sharp and crisp and coupled with his fastball, the guy could be unhittable. His only draw back in his first four years of major league service time is his control. He has 354 innings under his belt with the Rockies and 173 walks. The past two years fall inline with his career numbers where he is walking one batter every two innings pitched. This has to come down if he wants to be an elite pitcher. There are times when he is on the mound and opposing batters look scared and it seems that the term “effectively wild” was coined for Ubaldo.  

Chad Billingsley - AP Photo/Gus Ruelas

Number 3: Chad Billingsley (25) of the Los Angeles Dodgers. While Ubaldo is trying to become the staff ace of the Rockies, Billingsley already is for the Dodgers. Billingsley could have been called the ace last year too. While most people thought of Derek Lowe as the ace of the Dodgers, Billingsley was certainly 1B to Lowe's 1A.

Billingsley has been with the Dodgers since 2006 and has 64 career decisions. His career record is 43-22 and while win/loss records are about as meaningless as saves his career ERA is just over three and he always gives his team a chance to win. 2009 is a good example as he has 12 starts thus far and he has lasted six innings or more in all of his starts and only allowed more than three earned runs once. He is quickly turning into the very definition of a team’s horse. Last year he threw 200 innings with a 3.14 ERA and a .248 opponent’s batting average. In 2009 he is on pace to throw well over 200 innings again and his ERA is 2.59 with a .227 opponents batting average.

To just have a bit of fun with Billingsley – he is 25 years old and lets say he stays healthy and pitches until he is 40 (not all that unreasonable with guys like Maddux, Johnson and Moyer pitching well into their 40’s). He already has 42 career wins and if he averages 15 a year for the next 15 years (not all that unrealistic if he stays with the Dodgers who tend to win) he would end up with 267 career wins. He had 16 wins last year and is on pace for around 20 this season. With his stuff and his build (his short stocky build is often discussed as the best build for a pitcher) he may be the next best shot at a pitcher winning 300 games. 

Tim Lincecum - AP Photo/Greg Nikitin

Number 2: Tim Lincecum (25) of the San Francisco Giants. Not many pitchers explode onto the scene like Lincecum did. In his first full season in 2008 all he did was win 18 games, strikeout 265 batters while walking only 84 and winning the Cy Young. In his career 430 innings pitched he has K’d 491. The kid is a K machine. If you watch baseball on TV at all you have surely seen one of his commercials. He is all over the baseball world. People love the fact that a 5’11” 170lb person can throw as hard as he does and baffle opposing batters like he does. They love the funky delivery that is now being mimicked by kids all over the country.

Lincecum had to go to University of Washington before being drafted as there were quite a few scouts that were leary of his delivery and his durability. A kid that big (small) with that crazy delivery has to either get hurt or unable to repeat it. Right? After being drafted by the Giants in 2006 he made his debut with the parent organization in 2007. He only pitched in 13 games in the minor leagues in which he was 6-0 with 62 2/3 innings pitched and 104 strikeouts. That delivery was definitely repeatable and opposing batters repeatedly walked back to the dugout wondering how that little guy just blew them away. After throwing 227 innings in 2008 the questions about his durability are fading also. Lincecum will be a Cy Young favorite for years to come.

Justin Upton - AP Photo/Chris Carlson

Number 1: Justin Upton (22) of the Arizona Diamondbacks is the young brother of BJ Upton of the Tampa Bay Rays. Both Upton brothers were first round draft picks, Justin was the first overall pick in 2005 and both are expected to be fantastic major league players. While both Upton brothers are good, Justin is going to be great.

Justin doesn’t turn 22 until August 25th of this year and he already has 200 games played under his belt. Last year was the season in which he got quite a bit of playing time and he played in 108 games. At the age of 20 he hit 15 home runs in the big leagues. The kid can barely drink legally and he carries an .831 career OPS. In 2009 his OPS is a robust 1.003 and he has 10 home runs and is well on his way to hitting over 30 in 2009. Not only is he hitting for power in 2009 he also has an on-base percentage of .398! The kid can flat out rake at the plate.

While predicting how good this kid will be is hard to do as there haven’t been that many in baseball history that are doing what he is doing at this age, it doesn’t stop some from having fun. There is a Justin Upton crystal ball which predicts how his career will pan out. They have him chalked down with 540 career home runs, 504 doubles and just over 1800 RBIs.

This division is full of great young players and if these guys sign with their respective clubs to stay with those teams for numerous years this division could rule the baseball roost for many years.

Going back to Lakely’s article and one name that I left off of my list that might be a glaring omission – Jonathan Broxton. I tend not to value closers very much and since Broxton will only impact 70 or 80 innings a year, he doesn’t make my list. The starting pitchers on this list will impact around 200 innings a year and are much more valuable to their teams. While a guy that can come in and completely dominate an inning like Broxton can has value, it doesn’t have as much value as the rest of the players on this list.

Any other omissions? Any discrepancies? Let me know in the comments section.